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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185032)	3/8/2022 9:31:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217699

(12) From Bill Fleckenstein today, and I wet myself: Prop Wash Versus "Bretton Woods III"03-08-2022 The upside carnage and chaos unleashed across the base metals and strategic metals caught up with the precious metals today, as they erupted early on (more about that below). The difficult thing now when it comes to the precious metals is trying to determine how much of the price action is a function of the fact that we're probably moving to a new sort of monetary regime, and how much is the prop wash from the commodity dealer community (of all flavors) and associated margin calls. That's of course impossible to guess at, but my response was to trim a little from some of my larger positions "just in case." My hunch is that these will be bad sales, but I just don't know. If they turn out to be good sales, I will look to replace what I've sold. In any case, no one should take this the wrong way. I never disclose the size of my positions or my overall exposure because I don't want others to copy me, but I have been very aggressive and I'm just lightening up a touch. Third Time's the Charm? In terms of the potential new monetary order that I mentioned, I don't mean something official like "Bretton Woods III," although that is a term I've seen thrown around by certain thoughtful people who have come to this conclusion from various different angles. (There are a lot of conspiracy theorists who have reached this conclusion as well, but they don't really count.) Zoltan Pozsar, the strategist for Credit Suisse, said it pretty well in a recent note on this topic with the very headline, "Bretton Woods III." Pozsar compares this to the 1973 OPEC supply shock (he calls it the 2022 Russia supply shock), but this one isn't being driven by the supplier, it's being driven by the consumer. He notes that, "[Perversely,] the aggressor in the geopolitical arena is being punished by sanctions, and the sanctions-driven commodity price moves threaten financial stability in the West. Is there enough collateral for margin? Is there enough credit for margin? What happens to commodity futures exchanges if players fail?" The Great Unraveling I don't have a link to this because somebody sent me the full text itself, and it appears to be Credit Suisse proprietary content (you can find screenshots of it on Twitter), but he goes into more detail and articulates why he thinks what he does. However, the important part is his conclusion: "This crisis is not like anything we've seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 -- the end of the era of commodity-based money. When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flip side, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities). "After this war is over, 'money' will never be the same again…and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this." Turning to the action, the equity market was about flat through midday after being a bit higher and a bit lower overnight. In the afternoon, it surged higher, then backed off, then rallied again. The net of the day's absolutely wild volatility was the small losses that you see in the box scores. Away from stocks, green paper was a little lower, fixed income was aggressively weaker all across the curve, and commodities were all over the place. "One of These Mornings, the Chain is Gonna Break" Nickel traded up to $100,000 a ton and across the commodity spectrum there was aggressive buying and selling. Just as my friend Joe mentioned last week, the bigger shortage problem appears to be base metals and rare earths rather than food, although food is going to be plenty expensive, but there were massive disruptions across the sector. It perversely turns out that Russia not only supplies tons of grain, but also almost everything that the whole green energy build requires. You basically couldn't have created a bigger disaster for physical goods if you had specifically set out to do so. In any case, for the metals, after having been up almost 5%, silver closed with a gain of 3%, while gold closed 2.5% higher after a nearly 3.5% pop early on. The miners were very strong early before they backed off and closed mixed in very lumpy fashion on big volume. Positions in stocks mentioned: none.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185032)	5/10/2022 5:28:04 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217699

People's War against Covid continues, I am guessing to ~June bloomberg.com China Tightens Covid Noose as Shanghai, Beijing Cases Linger Quiet periods, expanded isolation and home disinfection begins Stricter policies started to squeeze out lingering infections 10 May 2022, 15:03 GMT+8 China is tightening pandemic restrictions in Shanghai and expanding a mass testing sweep in Beijing as officials chase the elusive goal of wiping out Covid-19 cases in the community. The country reported 3,426 new infections for Monday, the lowest daily tally since March 16. Cases in Shanghai, where the biggest outbreak remains underway, fell to a six week low of 3,014 after peaking at more than 27,000 a day in mid-April. In Beijing, new infections rose to 74, though they have yet to exceed 100-a-day in the current flare-up. Despite the low numbers, authorities are ramping up curbs. Some Shanghai neighborhoods have announced “quiet periods,” where residents aren’t allowed to go outside and deliveries are curbed, while more people are being shipped off to government-run isolation centers under a new definition of what it means to be a close contact. In Beijing, areas beyond the biggest district Chaoyang are instituting rounds of mass testing with schools in the capital to remain shut. The moves underscore the lengths officials will go to for a virus strategy that is leaving China isolated and out of step with the rest of the world, where Covid is now widespread. The country is trying to eliminate the last vestiges of Covid in their cities, and the tighter restrictions and stepped-up moves suggest the lockdowns that have confined millions of residents to their homes for more than a month won’t be eased soon. Read more: Videos of People Dragged Into Quarantine Censored in China Authorities expanded the criteria for close contacts in Shanghai, with people living in the same building as a positive Covid case at risk of being removed to government-run isolation facilities if they have regular daily interactions. Previously, people thought only those living in the same apartment or the same floor as positive cases would likely be considered close contacts and put in official quarantine. A brigade of hundreds of volunteers dressed head-to-toe in protective gear are disinfecting the apartments of those who test positive, as well as the homes of neighbors who share kitchens or bathrooms, to further control the virus, officials said. Meanwhile, the last two subway lines in operation were suspended, according to The Paper. Across the country, plunging subway travel - down 22% from a week earlier in 11 large cities - and home sales declines of more than 50% compared to a year earlier show the economic turmoil the measures are causing. CHINA INSIGHT: Plunging Subway Use, Home Sales Show Lockdown Hit Uncertainties persist around Beijing’s virus situation, local health official Pang Xinghuo said at a Monday briefing. All regions in Chaoyang, Shunyi, Fangshan and other neighborhoods that found cases in the past seven days will conduct three rounds of mass Covid tests starting Tuesday, according to information shared at the press conference. A team of health workers and volunteers check residents’ identification in a neighbourhood where a suspected flare up in cases occurred in Shanghai, on May 9. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg Bloomberg prognosis Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan on Monday reiterated the country’s adherence to Covid Zero, saying outbreaks should be stamped out as soon as they are detected, Xinhua reported. She urged the importance of early warning, and stressed the availability of PCR tests within 15 minutes’ walk in big cities. China’s Covid Zero policy requires all cases and their close contacts to be isolated in government facilities as a way of snuffing out transmission. The strategy was effective at quashing Covid early on in the pandemic, but is being challenged by more transmissible variants like omicron. The country’s ongoing pursuit of the strategy is leaving it increasingly isolated, with other parts of the world dismantling pandemic curbs and living alongside the virus, making the scenes in China all the more stark. — With assistance by Peter Vercoe, Daniela Wei, and Claire Che (Adds subway closings in Shanghai and home sales drops in sixth and seventh paragraphs)