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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185087)	3/10/2022 10:30:23 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217881

Agrees with my read... although, I modify my opinion and expectation with an expectation of intent versus belief in any free market function operating as a primary driver. I think the market function is now the tail wagging behind the dog... still acting market-like... but without the ability to wag the dog... So, I'd characterize what I see as an structured and intentional interference... that both intends to ensure markets move lower... but also intends that they do so in an mostly orderly fashion, which requires constant disruptions of the markets natural inclinations to accelerate trends... more when they are as obvious as this clearly is... even the pundits acknowledging that "they" want the market lower and will make it so... So, what we do see occurring is "a crash"... with delaying features and "safety rails"... also ensuring many bets on "what should happen" that should... will be losing bets... as the time function consumes capital applied without delivering reward for risk properly parsed... save for awareness of the reality in tails and dogs variant interests... Mapping it... I see the precise dynamic of a crash... only with it occurring at 1/5 speed... At times, that means a smooth function crashing at 1/5 speed... at other times it means crashing in real time... for one day out of five... with the other four days composed of counter trend moves, dithering sideways, and simply "noise"... All of which matters... as it re-prioritizes (expectations and) allocations of capital relative to time... increasing costs and reducing returns for "guessing" correctly... even knowing the delay exists... as the time value in money, or in an option... fails to reward "being right" or "participating"... as it otherwise might... The counter trade... requires (even longer dated) bets placed against market expectations assuming error exists in others parsing of time functions... in bets where the delays are not properly recognized or priced... Where that is true... the misperception and mispricing imposed obviates the value in time function... where the market fails to perceive any function with value. That equates to "bargain hunting"... which I noted in the instance of OXY... others like it, including GTE... in which the trade failed to account for the non-linear functions occurring in price (of oil) vs. value (in stocks) properly... because people are really bad at understanding (both time and) exponential functions. Same applies in my noting... the larger accumulation in disconnects... likely to occur in the lowest beta stocks... where the crowd is inured of a powerful "normalcy bias" routinely dominating the trade... allowing the chart pattern to obviate recognition of larger change in value... That is less likely to occur in high volume trades (although it did in major oils stocks... in part because of the effort expended in social engineering devaluing them)... not because the errors are not present there... but because the price tag applied in the time value of money in an option on the SPY, for instance, is excessive in relation to the extant market expectations... Even being right... the bets placed will cost too much relative to the risk inherent in time functions knowing the trade is forced into slow motion... while the erosion in time value is not. So, either limiting participation to the very short term... with focus on short term moves inside the trend... where time value has been obviated by shortened horizons... ie., in options trades counter to moves inside the trend, where there is only a week or a day left on them... and only a day or a week's (which are now reduced to the same thing) potential in variation... in movement... exists. If you play SPY or UVXY... can you parse the way it moves tomorrow correctly... based on the patterns (and the misdirection applied) inside the larger trends ? And then... get blown up by an item in the news that shifts the balance on that day ? Hmmm. Worth doing to develop the trading skills... or keep them sharp... but... the risk is vastly higher "inside the trade"... making long odds on long term survival... without discipline applied in reducing time in holding risks to "inside the move"... Day trading works... if you have awareness of the structure of the counter trend and misdirections applied. But, it is all consuming of time... which would be better spent finding value outside the flow... There, awareness that human tendencies are not ever different... so, finding frogs in boiling pots... accumulating potential without it being recognized... is possible... in trades outside the primary flow... Fundamental awareness is key to being able to recognize them... while timing depends on "guesses" versus points in time where change occurs... that forces others awareness... So, fundamental awareness... and news flow... addressing things others ignore... that are likely to trade counter to trend in expectation... The trade risk is minimized... with short period focus... and "if it doesn't happen, no one will notice" so no impact... and "if it does happen"... everyone will notice... after you.