Okay, so perhaps crude oil makes port call at 150? Then 200?
This a very long and probably often disjointed input... but... thinking as I go... connecting dots...
In prior post noted... I don't think that "price points" can be extracted from the charts, currently... rather than "time functions"...
And, that is still true... that the charts contain timing information... but, its no longer as clear what it means...
That focus on "timing" was my view before the market failed... or at least... before the failure was being acknowledged as such... which reveal clearly occurred today in the ZH linked news re " doom loop avoidance bail out required in oil" ?
Was also made clear today they're doubling down on oil price suppression now... Powell harped on "price stability" as a key goal in oil relevant context without saying how they were acting in dealing with the oil price spike... and noted they have no idea what the impacts of sanctions might be... but expect impacts... and know inflation is "higher" and expect higher oil and commodity prices, too... but clearly blamed inflation on oil prices... and Russia... while "guessing" it will move from 4% now back to 2% in future. All total fiction. Not fiction... they TOTALLY punted on balance sheet reduction... as "to be addressed in future meetings"... flat out says, multiple times, they're going to reduce inflation by "reducing demand"... while also saying they're going to slow the economy to minimize inflation... while also supporting "continued growth"... but touts 2% growth this year as strong... ignoring the deflator in inflation rate NOT being 4%... which means the "growth" is "shrinkage"... and that they're planning to shrink faster...
I can't think of anything that might be a more clueless policy...
They predict "lower inflation in the future"... blame ALL the inflation on "supply chains, oil / Russia, labor"... ignore increasing money supply by 36% last year... ? It is clear they DO INTEND to suppress oil prices... as part of "seeking price stability"... and intend to impose "demand destruction"... not stated as "to contain oil prices"... but as to contain "inflation" broadly...
Claims they have "no idea"' what the impacts of sanctions might be... which I think is not believable...
My view of that is... that view being flogged... and the policy based on it... is such a massive disconnect from reality... that it requires that the effort in oil price suppression is very likely to prove to be the anvil on which the hammer of oil supply reality will force a recognition of the lies, and force the failure of the Fed's lies... "soon".,..
That also makes it appear that the "market failures" we see... were probably deliberately imposed by the Fed... as by means of "controlling inflation" by price suppression... and not "accidental" or otherwise unintended consequences of policy...
And, that amplifies the concern... as that's brain dead stupid...
"Acutely aware of the need to restore price stability"... and "will use 'powerful tools' to restore price stability"... and that is clearly NOT happening by raising rates by a pointless 0.25%... leaving only... imposing market frauds to suppress prices... ie., "price controls"... which DO NOT WORK to control prices... but work great in destroying market function.
What is clear in obvious "price suppression" effort revealed today... appears to be "overly convenient" or "clearly fabricated" numbers... NOT the first time under Biden... which I would define as the oil market equivalent of the fabulous lies about "transitory" versus the inevitability in "inflation" proving the lie was a lie. Only with this instance having a vastly shorter fuze lit... leading to a far more spectacular "narrative" failure event... and a vastly more spectacular "reveal"... "soon"...
Inflation frog lies failed as with frogs in a slowly warming pot...
Oil frog lies... are to be steamed in a pressure cooker that flashes entire content to steam... all at once...
Oil Slides To Session Lows After DOE Reports Unexpected Surge In Crude Inventories
Validity of prior work showing periodicity of the suppression trade and recovery period to prior highs... is likely to prove not useless... but, given "change" it clearly cannot be relied upon as more than "a guide"... ?
Really... as more of a milestone we've passed...
And, from here... time to "what"... now dominates focus...
Other things now conspire to suggest: "two weeks"... with that now coincident with the end of March...
Oil and gold suddenly on same page today... in both "what the market is doing to them"... and in shared timelines ?
All I see... is the Fed sustaining brain dead policy of the last 40+ years... when that no longer works... and will fail...
And, maybe that's what the "fail" forced on the oil market MEANS... is that... "this don't work no more"... ?
I worked up that chart (below) because, to my eye, it appeared performance periods to recover prior highs were also shortening from the beginning of the suppression trades.. but, rigor says no... the time in impact and to recover after bogus news about a drop of oil released from SPR "flooding" the market with supply and thus gutting oil prices... is fairly steady. Five to seven weeks down.. five to six weeks back up.
I think the most compelling element in that chart work... is in the "accelerations" apparent in the steepening of the lines in the Rate of Change which I label as a volatility megaphone...
Relevant questions now... given the market did fail... even if they are still pretending it did not...
Most critically: how is a market failure in result of the failure of price suppression... to be accommodated ?
Is there any validity left, in the market itself... or in the prior timing drivers ? Prior periods imposed about 5 weeks in the down cycle... and, the current down cycle started 5 weeks ago... but then "failed to go down". So, with traders forcing a "reset" of the trade to a higher base instead of it going down... maybe the clock was also reset and we're now in the week 3 of the current decline from a higher base...
Only, that makes the 5 week period... magically re-align with "the end of March"... ? Probably not coincidence.
Other reasons apparent now to think that "The Great Reset" is not a project abandoned... but is scheduled to occur on April Fool's day... and, the prior posting on commodity market failures likely contains the key:
It wasn't immediately clear if central banks would come running to the commodity giants' rescue. As the FT notes, "some may be reluctant to help trading firms that often make large profits from shifts in commodity prices." However, senior ECB officials are keeping a close eye on global commodity markets, and as ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said last week, derivatives, including commodity derivatives, were a “very specific market that we are looking at very carefully”.
That said, speaking at a conference on Wednesday, Rostin Behnam, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the top US derivatives regulator, said appropriate margins must “unfailingly” be maintained.
“We must hold fast to our regulatory structures and resist the urge to make ad hoc decisions to avoid the natural outcomes of market forces,” he said.
What that suggests... is not that Pozsar "saved us from a risk" by uncovering the problem timely enough to enable corrections being applied... but that he merely accidentally uncovered and exposed "the plan" by which they intend to dynamite... not just the dollar... but the remaining foundations of the world economy that now depend upon it...
Perhaps as... "You want a world without the dollar's key influence ? OK, here ya go. Boom."... Sink or swim.
And, reality is... sink...
Without the malice and intent... the other explanation would be... they just didn't understand what Poszar was warning them about in time... and still don't get it... so, rather than reduce the risks... amplified them by being stupid... and forced the market to fail...
Noted... they're saying "it's fine" that suddenly trading in commodities requires margin backed at almost a full 1:1 ratio... essentially saying the trade in commodity markets is no longer margin-able...
And, clearly they have no clue what that will do... ? Or, they are going to "control inflation" and "slow the economy"... by preventing commodities trading...
Again... that is brain dead stupid... if consistent with 40+ years in commodity price suppression... while thinking it will never matter if you screw those guys... but total cranio-rectal inversion in current circumstance...
Biden blew up the Russian market... the Russians produce 10% of the world's oil... and, if sanctions work "at all"... the impact is going to be... more than equivalent to March 2020... only in removing supply instead of removing demand... And, with that... it appears, again, that they are INTENDING the markets to fail...
Some will go along with that out of ignorance... as Behnam says "let the market work"... except... the market working... being allowed to work.. is not what this is about... NOT what they are doing. If the market were being allowed to work... we would likely have seen $300 oil last week... instead of a failed market... and what does it mean right now instead... with "suppression applied"... and the price down at $95 oil ?
The "transitory" nature of that price... cannot survive contact with the reality of the coming impact in what has ALREADY BEEN DONE... as that has set "events" in motion...
Suggests to me that what's coming in oil price shock... is perhaps not a survivable event...
And, the desperate begging for oil... versus the price "declining" now... suddenly might make more sense.
So, that timeline addressed before... was tied to the manipulation schedule... not to dates at which the impacts are going to be "felt"...
We see two timelines... that have to collide and force a resolution in a price...
The oil clock started ticking on March 8... the article noting about U.S. imports of Russian oil: In December, Russian oil accounted for less than 5% of total U.S. oil imports...
That number in direct imports is already LARGER than the 3.3% impact that I noted from the 2020 events... only as the inverse impact in a supply reduction, not a demand reduction...
And that suggests... uncertainty... in the "45 day grace period to arrange alternative supplies"...
Yeah... I just think that's a "can't get there from here" scale problem...
What we see now... is those who DO see it coming... being shut out of the trade that's going to occur...in that space... by means of financial repression ? Their response is... to defund the commodity traders ?
The subtext... in the recent messaging... is that what they are doing now... reduces $ critical to the liquidity in the trade... removing the $ that makes the trade happen. That can't stop the impact that's incoming... so, all they're doing... is forcing a trading halt... while not telling you that's what they're doing...
They're going to make sure the market DOESN'T WORK... as they work to not transmit the price information... or any news about "impacts" occurring as they occur... here or in Russia ? Which... with success... still does not make oil appear in tanks as if by magic... and doing so at the appointed price.
And, when, one day... that 5% of supply we expect... is just not there... ??? And, as Russia produces 10% of global supply... and it is not just the "direct" impact in shutting down U.S. imports from Russia that is likely to prove the biggest impact ?
And, at that point, i think you've run into a problem of propaganda limits imposed in communications...
Russia will not want to admit impacts happening... U.S. will not want to be seen imposing "controls" or forcing market closures... vs. rousting evil oligarchs from their yachts ? Class warfare also making a come back... not just in "windfall profits" taxes on producers... but, already showing up in that article... attacking traders for the benefit in hypothetically winning some future trade... that they are seeking to block from occurring ?
Obvious take away... is that their "solution" to the problem... makes the problem vastly worse...
Nutshell version... both team China and team U.S. are focused on sustaining stock market bubbles... as if $ flowing into stocks is what generates wealth... and, at the same time... both operate "suppression of inflation" frauds that seek to undervalue commodity production and transfer value "up the chain" to have profit realized at the top of the pyramid... where best pirated for "the few".
That is a key part of the 40+ year long trade arrangement... not only that in the constantly declining interest rates... the low cost borrowing enabled by it to fund it all.. and the swapping of deflation/inflation risks...
But... "commodity super cycle"... the changing of the tides... has the future dominated by trade in matter... in opposition to the stock markets trade in anti-matter...
Keeping them apart... is done by force in the "takings" and "transfer" of value up chain... the pressure applied in the process from the flow in 40+ years of unidirectional expectation... with resulting debt loads layering as the insulation that prevents matter-antimatter explosions... and price suppression ensuring the debt is a constantly dominant cap...
The reversal of the 40+ year trend in the tide... WILL force change in that structure... must...
Biden blowing up Russian supply... seems it has caused both matter and anti-matter leakages...
But, they seem unaware that the reversal means... the financial events coming... are not going to come from inside the banking system... but from the "rearrangements in flows"... that are NOT just about the structure of flows between US and China...
The limits in trade... and in debt sustainability... force the end of the transfer schemes... in trade... and in commodities price suppression...
Commodity super cycle... and commodity price suppression... mutually exclusive...
When they plan... to reduce the economy... to avoid inflation impacts ? That's NOT a path with a constant slope... or with a nonlinear feature that advantages them with "less inflation" being a LARGER impact than "less stuff" ? The only way they reduce inflation on that path... is to terminate the economy... to zero.
I think the opposite is true... that as they "throttle back" the economy to reduce inflation... it will force inflation HIGHER... as "less" supply meets a still largely constant demand... and, in the degree not... the less demand... is willing to pay more to get the less supply. The plan they have... is a plan to fail...
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