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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185373)	3/15/2022 12:51:43 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217750

I think the war risk is VASTLY larger than is being considered, anywhere... and the potential for miscalculation, error and escalation undervalued... along with "probable consequences" in the event. The world has not been put at this much risk... of unknowingly inviting uncontrollable amplifications... since the lead-in to WW I. While those "responsible"... simply, are not... So, many issues to consider... in minding one's obligations.. In oil, I think the events of 2020... are in part responsible for some of the changed perception of risks that might be realized... not just by average "market participants"... but on the part of the producers. Usually, that will mean those same risks are less likely to be realized again... which, of course, does not mean that new ones might be invented... Oil is foundational... an essential... it is the food the economy eats... so "demand" cannot entirely cease, or, at least, cannot for very long... which does not mean it is insulated from "supply chain risks"... perhaps soon to include war risks... which must be considered. I did well trading oil and gas in 2020... and the shares, after the commodity issues resolved. Today's environment is very different, though... not just as going into the blender versus coming out... but, in focus, and the "tone" of the times... Much of what that might mean I cannot predict. But, the oil must flow... Perhaps a more deliberate study of relevant history in order... But, still... while whacking price because perceived responsible... and not valuing impact of acts or decisions on markets or participants vs "optics"... the goal is "more" not "less"... as there is not enough... and that rule cannot be repealed... so, I think, a steady hand until a non-theatrical reason for change is perceived... The lack of difficulty in "more... at higher price" or "less... at lower price"... eludes them... inducing error...while biting the hand providing... is proven a preferred approach... so the risk inherent in having irrational actors imposing decisions.... that cannot work... a big part of why potential participant prove reluctant... elevating costs... and risks... Agree on silver.... and continue poking... Tests coming soon... it feels like... for markets generally... ones own ideas and plans particularly... I note change occurring now in the junior mining space... where many are finally making bottom charts... while "enthusiasm" is as absent as I have ever seen it.... in those drifting lower... while others buzz like hives after sustaining moves for a week or two... but, I expect "whacks" like that today... may prolong accumulation times... I noted a vid today... in which a very young trader... chatted happily about "wow, commodities"... having made a move.... and, he assumes, that was a commodities bull market, and its over now... The Fed will not contain inflationary enthusiasm with rates rising 0.25%... so, "whack" ? But, not for much longer I think... Do not wish to be caught flat footed when it begins...