Trump staring at resounding rejection in GOP primaries
[ Its not just Putin who is losing. His American oligarch is too. ]
The former president's endorsed candidates are struggling to capitalize on his support. If he goes 0-3 in three pivotal statewide primaries in May, it would suggest his peak influence has passed.
Josh Kraushaar @HOTLINEJOSH
National Journal
March 15, 2022, 6 p.m.
Former President Trump is staring at a real chance that his endorsed candidates go zero-for-three in competitive Senate primaries in May, an outcome that would underscore his already mixed record in primaries and raise serious questions about the depth of his political clout within the Republican Party. Trump’s undisciplined political strategy, seeking to punish any candidate he deems disloyal, faces a wall of resistance in the South, one of the most pro-Trump regions of the country during his presidency.
From North Carolina to Alabama, Senate candidates are failing to capitalize on the Trump seal of approval. Former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory has weathered millions in outside attacks from the Trump-allied Club for Growth and leads Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd in several publicly released polls. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp now leads former Sen. David Perdue by double digits in multiple polls, while holding a significant financial advantage down the home stretch. Trump-endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks has underperformed so badly in Alabama’s Senate race that the former president is reportedly considering endorsing one of his leading rivals. All these primaries will be taking place in May.
In June, Trump’s clout in House races will be tested in South Carolina, with Reps. Nancy Mace and Tom Rice facing off against Trump-backed challengers. Trump held a rally for Mace’s challenger Katie Arrington and Rice’s leading opponent Russell Fry last weekend. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a likely future presidential candidate, headlined a fundraiser for Mace last week, a sign of the emerging proxy war between two opposing wings of the Republican Party. Multiple polls, including one from Arrington’s campaign, show Mace leading in the head-to-head matchup. Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans to support Trump’s impeachment last year, is in more precarious shape.
Adding insult to injury, Trump’s past praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin is now proving to be a major vulnerability for MAGA-aligned candidates—at the worst possible time. By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Republicans rejected the isolationist notion that the war in Ukraine is “none of our business” in a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll. Yet Trump touted the Russian dictator’s strategic savvy at a recent fundraising event on the eve of Russia’s invasion, with many of his endorsed candidates in attendance. McCrory, after being hit as a "Republican In Name Only" in pro-Budd ads, went up with his first ad attacking Budd for being soft on Russia. “These are serious times and we need serious senators. … I don’t compliment our enemies. I stand for truth and freedom,” McCrory says in the ad. The nonstop news coverage of the war in Ukraine is also preventing the Trump-backed challengers from getting much media attention at a time when intraparty politics feels downright small by comparison.
McCrory’s resilience in the North Carolina Senate race is an example of the limited impact of Trump’s endorsement. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Budd and the barrage of uncontested anti-McCrory ads, even a Budd internal poll showed the congressman still trailing 31 to 25 percent, a finding consistent with other outside polls in the primary. Budd’s campaign has argued that the congressman has more room to grow, but he’s running an awfully low-key race so far. He missed a recent Republican debate, and he hasn’t been able to translate his Trump endorsement into successful fundraising.
The presence of another conservative candidate in the race, former Rep. Mark Walker, is also stunting Budd’s support. Trump worked to convince Walker to leave the Senate race in exchange for a House campaign, but his entreaties failed. The Walker campaign’s polling, conducted last month, found McCrory leading by 11 points over Budd but with Walker also tallying double-digit support. To avoid a runoff, the winner needs just 30 percent of the vote.
The picture looks even more treacherous for Trump in Georgia, the state where he’s focused so much of his political energy against perceived enemies. After Trump railed against Kemp for certifying his state’s 2020 election results and recruited Perdue to challenge him, Kemp has built up a near double-digit lead in the race, according to public polling. A Fox News poll conducted this month shows the governor leading Perdue by 11 points and hitting the critical 50 percent mark to avoid a runoff. A Kemp adviser noted that the governor’s favorability with Republicans has grown since Trump’s endorsement, making the case that voters care more about his conservative accomplishments on COVID, education, and gun rights than the last election.
Kemp also holds a significant financial advantage over Perdue, who has struggled to translate the Trump endorsement into campaign dollars. Trump will campaign for Perdue on March 26, in what may amount to a last-ditch attempt to revive the former senator’s flagging fortunes. Perdue’s first ad featured a direct-to-camera appeal from Trump urging voters to support his candidacy.
“Trump’s no longer president. People’s attention is shifting to how bad Joe Biden is, not the last election. And time heals a lot of wounds,” said the Kemp adviser. “Trump’s also spread himself pretty thin here. He’s done everything but endorse people for dogcatcher here and in states across the country.”
The trajectory of the Alabama Senate primary is also defying the early conventional wisdom. Despite securing an early endorsement from Trump, Brooks has struggled in the race against two other credible GOP contenders. A new poll from Trump pollster McLaughlin and Associates, commissioned by the Alabama Forestry Association, found Brooks slipping into a distant third-place finish with just 18 percent of the vote. Retired Army officer Michael Durant, who is largely self-funding his campaign, pulled into the lead with 34 percent, with Katie Britt, the longtime aide to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, tallying 32 percent. Other polling, conducted earlier, suggests a close three-way primary. If no one wins 50 percent of the vote—a likely outcome—the race heads to a June runoff.
The outlook has gotten so grim for Brooks, who spoke at the Jan. 6, 2021, rally, that Trump has hardly acknowledged his candidacy in recent months. Trump has even entertained endorsing Britt as well, according to a CNN report, the better to hedge his bet against an embarrassing loss.
These primary developments offer clear evidence that Trump’s bark doesn’t carry as much bite as it once did. If he finishes May with an 0-3 record in three of the most consequential Republican contests, it will give even more space for Republicans to move past the former president, as other onetime Trump loyalists are already heading in that direction.
Trump staring at resounding rejection in GOP primaries (nationaljournal.com) |
