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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185495)	3/17/2022 10:26:54 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217755

As Hedge Funds Dump Energy, Buffett Drills Deeper With Big Occidental Purchase

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185495)	3/18/2022 2:10:08 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217755

The pairing in the near certainty of inflation... with the parallel probability in "disruptions" occurring in markets that we know will have price impacts... and, knowing, now, that "some" in the market will seek to address the disruptions that occur, not by countering shortage with effort in fostering production of "more"... but with insane attempts to shut markets down to disallow them reflecting price impacts of "real" change occurring ? The market failure has happened already in nickel... more likely to be a "one off" until awareness of timing and scope in Russian impacts become more knowable ... And, "something" has occurred in oil... which, although no one is talking about it... appears it was more likely not "the market broke" but being made the subject of a Fed managed "whack" to subdue logic being applied in wagers, versus fear of "whack". Oil still far more likely to be "ground zero" in battles between markets pricing of liquid unobtanium... and dictat struggling with reality in price irrelevancy when "there is none available now"... Maybe more risk in wheat and corn than is priced in... while odds are good the markets will remain well behaved... It seems clear that the longer "the event" drags on... the less food there will be in 2023... as a key requirement in farming is that planting season "is when it is"... we do not tell it.... it tells us. And wars tend to make planting difficult... imposing disruptions of supply... or of the access to fields, while lacking supplies only may prevent an ability to plant... means "less is possible" become "less is certain" far earlier in the cycle than typically true. WEAT >$24 back in 2012... CORN >$50... so, probably worth making efforts in parsing markets then vs now... assuming variable impacts from Russians economic impairment and Ukrainians physical impairment. And, then, weather impacts in in other producing regions becomes more critical as a risk... as the dependency on them grows... A crop failure in China, Brazil or Argentina... or a drought in the U.S. midwest... could impact global supply far more than usual. I've focused, thus far on rolling oil and metals to longer dates... diversifying them... but, added very considerably to the % in oil in the last few days... Slept in this morning, and gratified to see the sea of red become green... Still puzzling over the outlier in SBSW's recalcitrant behavior... out the gate early... then, stopped... and sulked more than others as "events" developed. I think I still don't know why it has been moody... but, perhaps the nickel market issues have something to do with it ?