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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. David Gleitman who wrote (8304)	2/9/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: J R KARY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Hi David : will you see $26.50/shr You are behind AAPL's board at $23/shr and Dr. Gil at $26/shr but ahead of any remaining 6% bondholders who covert at $28/shr . Not bad company to be mixed in with but the guy in this (toy) story will be the one to put you over $28/shr when he takes the job : businessweek.com When he does you will ask yourself "why didn't I buy some shares at $18 ? " So I will ask now - why don't you ? Good investing, Jim K. PS: note in the story where Senor Jobs "wants to build a digital studio" and has been working 16 hour days to salvage AAPL .

To: Dr. David Gleitman who wrote (8304)	2/9/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213177

David, Three months in the future will cover Q2 quarterly report, which probably enables to give stock price another boost. The rationale is simple - G3's sales are brisk as Doncrabbs mentioned as follows: abbottsys.com Don predicts there are about 400,000 units to be sold in Q2 alone, higher than Jobs' conservative estimate of 300,000 - 350,000 units a week ago. If the results are close to what Don expected - 400,000 units, and non-G3's sales are as brisk as G3's as Don's description, then the outcome would be way beyond everybody's expectation, which could reach 1.7B of revenue with near 100M of net. I really don't know how street analysts will react if Don's prediction on sales volume comes true. Besides Jobs' taking permanent CEO mentioned by Jim, the bright Q2 picture will also be a key factor to boost to your expectation - $26.5/share. Phil

To: Dr. David Gleitman who wrote (8304)	2/9/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

David; There are many dyed in the wool Apple lovers on this thread who have overly optimistic projective wishes with regard to Apple. The truth is that Apple is locked in a downward spiral brought on by prior management stupidity and the enormouse price competition in the "Wintel" arena. As you know the Wintel price performance ratio has been steadily climbing, so much so that the total number of Wintel boxes has been climbing at over 20 per year for the past 5 years(compounded) At the same time the price has dropped by over 20% per year due to huge price drops in memory, hard drives and CPU's and all the other common Wintel parts(cases, mice, keyboards, monitors etc). As a result the Apple market share is now under 3% based on box count and around 5% based on box dollars(IE the Apples are 66% more than the Wintels) Part of this is due to the loyal niches Apple has in the Graphics, video and audio specialty areas. Remove them and the remaining share drops to 1% or so. This niche is disappearing, all the major vendors of software(except one) have gone over to the Wintel platform and all areas of those niches are contracting Apple wise as the Wintels grow. It does not matter that this magazine or that video house give out a glowing tribute to their Apples, the numbers erode. A great part of this problem was Apple bloated management structure in the past along with their inefficient production operations. A friend of mine had made millions from the errors Apple made in running out of this part and that part and disposing of that surplus monitor etc. Another part was the inability to properly manage their clone market. Properly licenced the clones would have streamed profits back to Apple and broadened the produced base of Apple and this would have made a sea of low cost Apple parts similar to the Wintel one. Apple would have benefitted directly as they would have used those parts. Apple had a dumb fool flat rate licence fee, and as a result the cloners went after the expensive boxes and cloned them, ignoring the cheap boxes(where the volume is) and that mid-low segment collapsed over the years. All the Managers, Jobs, Scully, Amelio, seem to have been very good at feathering their nests, and useless at running APple. Clinging to the founders mantle with Jobs is also extremely folish. He is kiown to be a bad executive, given to running on tangents, alienating the good creative people(they leave) and micro managing to an extreme. His vaunted ability of 'vision', HA! HA! HA!. He started the road to ruin in Mac days and he still thinks clones are bad. Tell Wintel that!! And Pixar?, let Pixar make another bad cartoon and eat its 50% loss, instead of geting paid fully for the job and letting the producer take the hit. Very flaky business, you cannot tell a good script from a bad one. The dogs made by assorted studios tell you that. Pixar does not have the fat to withstanda couple of bad hits. It's on;y saviou is immunity to takeover as Jobs has 70% of shares. Apple might get bought by Oracle etc, and that would make a price flurry. However Oracle also seems doomed?? So take care if you buy Apple shares now. The summer approaches and that is dead sales times for Apple. The recent downsize created the appearance of profitability, the appearance!!. You can grow Apple back to a nice garage operation by downsizing every quarter and stay profitable. Apple needs 5 years of 50% growth each year just to catch up to around 20% of the Wintel market. 5 years of 20% growth will keep Apple even at 3% of Wintel, as Wintel also grows at 20%. Enough alternative views, read the last 1000 posts. Bill