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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Y. Yu who wrote (5282)	2/9/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10479

>>>Fundamentally, it is always a profit that counts not a revenue.<<< But you'll never get a profit without generating the revenue first. Here's the post I made on Yahoo: >>>The backlog of $27MM, 85% of which was expected to be shipped in the 4th quarter, is part and parcel of the normal business activity for that period.<<< Correct, but historically Osicom's backlogs measure only ~$10-11 million. Take 85% of 17 million (27 million backlog - 10 million historic)= 14.45 million, add that to 23 million (recent low revenues) and you get a rather conservative estimate of 37 1/2 million in revenues. Now, I doubt the backlog stood at 10 million before the 23 million quarter, but I'm just trying to shave these numbers to realistic. I really would be impressed with anything over 35 million, am definitely hoping to see the number in the 40s. EPS isn't that important to me in a company like Osicom, except for short term trading (release of .15 creates momentum). As far as the long term point of view, I could see .15 being announced and being lousy (what do you mean, no R&D?), or .08 and it's good (they spent it inventing the perpetual money machine). It all depends on how they spent the money. EPS can be a function of "creative" accounting, it's a lot harder to fake revenues. And profitability follows cashflow. To me the report will be about revenues, revenues, and revenues, in that order. <<< Barb