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To: Cary Chubin who wrote (2737)2/9/1998 2:11:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3736
 
Cary,

You're correct. My data source was entirely in error, from
net income through working capital changes and on down.
Looks like +7M in 96, -13M in 97, and -25M in the first
6mos of 98 and with two rocky quarters to go. A lot of
that negative '98 cash flow was ballooning AR, however. If
and how much they collect may go a long way toward
helping them avoid "burning through their book value."
If it continues to balloon and they have to write it off,
then "Poof! goes the book" From their plans, they may have
upwards of 80M in cap exp during calendar 98. With two
weak quarters upcoming, and the likelihood of continued
AR expansion high, hmmm...

This from their last 10Q:
The Company currently anticipates capital expenditure spending of
approximately $30.5 million for all of fiscal 1998. In addition, the Company has
announced its intent to build a new 87,000 square foot Technology Center next to
the corporate headquarters in Chandler, Arizona. The current projected cost of
this new facility is estimated at $22.5 million with another $20.0 million for
capital equipment.

Mike



To: Cary Chubin who wrote (2737)2/9/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Q.  Respond to of 3736
 
Cary, to add to the discussion about cashflow, the co. apparently does plan to burn some cash: about $44 M will go into into bricks and mortar, so they likely will have negative cashflow from that 'investment' activity. Of course, they raised more than twice that in the offering last year, so the treasury will still be awash with greenbacks.

I don't want to criticize anybody, but as a shareholder I would have been happier if they had tried harder to maximize their ROE by putting their cash into something with a higher payoff than real estate. For high-tech companies, leasing makes a lot of sense, IMHO.

excerpt from the latest 10Q:

The Company currently anticipates capital expenditure spending of
approximately $30.5 million for all of fiscal 1998. In addition, the Company has
announced its intent to build a new 87,000 square foot Technology Center next to
the corporate headquarters in Chandler, Arizona. The current projected cost of
this new facility is estimated at $22.5 million with another $20.0 million for
capital equipment.