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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (4759)	2/9/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

OK. I'm going to hold my semi-equip shares. After a lot of initial hedging mostly first favoring selling, I'll stick this one out at least for a few more weeks. Still me thinks the bookings/billings has to get worse before it gets any better...

To: shane forbes who wrote (4759)	2/9/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE:"Next 2 or 3 quarters are the more important questions." I agree totally. Even if AMAT misses its numbers by a penny or two for the current quarter, the market will be kind if the conference call indicates things will be OK in the coming quarters with only a very mild downturn or few pushouts. If, on the other hand, they make their numbers for the quarter, but the CC indicates a real downturn for the next two quarters, it will be ugly. My reaction to the SFAM pre-open price info is that things will be ugly (I believe SFAM has a comparable level of Asian exposure, and I hoped for some mitigation of the bad news by news out of Korea today that the IMF has given the go-ahead for Korean firms (or maybe its just banks) to start borrowing short-term (read bank debt) again.) I think I may sit on the sidelines with semis today until after AMAT's release clears the air. Also, for what its worth, I think that there will be some more market reversals in SE Asia in the next 3-4 months, so I would trade the sector in the short term and not go whole-hog on the L-T investment vein just yet. jess.