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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185754)	3/28/2022 12:20:16 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218049

Hard to answer... Have many lists... most with a lot of effort applied in sorting things out and sifting through them with my effort in at least basic DD... But, currently I'm finding most of that effort is invalid in relation to near term performance expectations... because, its focus is on "value", when "value" can't be divorced from "price"... and "price" is all about the dynamic in the trade, and not the "value". All that in "the dynamic" has nothing to do with "the rocks" or who's running the companies, or what sort of potential they have, as I'd like to think might be true and matter in a rational world... but, that's not reality. Reality... is that we're still at the tail end of the 11 year long effort in mining stock accumulation / price suppression... and all the frauds practiced in the Basel III trade and the cup and handle patterns made by it. Your link pointed out a tertiary instance of another nested cup and handle pattern showing more accumulation... but, the "handle" on the cup... also has a reason for being... as its a part of the "unwinding" of the prior long term trade... A side note... lots of people talk about how little gold/silver there is in the world, and what that means as its price rises. Almost none talk about how many mining stocks there are, what they are worth, and what that means as gold / silver fall / rise ? But, the stocks are leveraged to the metal... like 10 :1 if they actually have any... and only the more if not ? So, "the point" of the manipulation in gold / silver... is not about "the metal"... but about "the $ in the trade" ? If you know the value of all the gold there is... can you tell me the value of all the gold mining stocks... and how that will change at various prices of gold... as all the cups and handles BS finally ends, and this phase of the trade winds up ? You often see evidence in similar or masked parallel "cup and handle" patterns as "deep V's" or inverted "deep V's" (often "fast" cups with very deep pointy bottoms) ... along with trading patterns evidencing "change afoot"... which I characterize as "washboard" patterns... that might show up in price... or in some other metrics... And, embedded in all that "noise" occurring at transitions... there is going to be an inverted cup and handle pattern... of the sort associated with the inverse of accumulation... as you typically see imposed in the short trade... And, as that inverted cup and handle pattern then also has to be unwound... it does so in a particular way... which, however, is very likely to play out differently in badly beaten down juniors than in more actively traded major market stocks... Bottoms outside of the major indices are not usually defined by "drama"... but by stocks being used, abused, thrown away, and ignored... Index stocks that win drama awards and fail... are quickly forced to leave the index... are out of mind long before they learn how to be ignored as fully as they will be as they hit bottom ? So, as much as a list of "relative value" in stocks is of value... that value is more long term... while reality is that the structure of the trade controls the trade more than "value" does... at least until it doesn't... but, for now it does... almost by definition... still at the end of a long running bear market in miners... as we are. So, particularly in the juniors, its more about recognizing trading patterns and timing bottoms based on seeing them play out to the end... than about picking well based on other criteria... I addressed it in a "how to" with a couple of examples in a couple of posts... The Silver (Stock) Suppression Trade Explained in (Short Sellers) Chart Terms... Signs the Next Rally in Gold Has Begun Cup and Handle patterns... and inverted Cup and Handle... GPL #1... and GPL #2. The rest, unfortunately, is meaning you're back to an issue by issue sorting of charts as they change... because bottoms are not made by "market averages"... but by individual issues bottoming inside the trend, whatever it is, or however it is changing... Or. back to "wait for it" in the issues you follow... waiting for the patterns you want to see to define the end of patience... even in a 50% drop that scares everyone else away... but is the definition of "buy low"... Also... while all that above is true... and the focus for now is on picking and trading stocks as they are bottoming and coming off bottoms... it's an incomplete answer... "I'm still working on it" is also true... and maybe a better answer... I'm reluctant for now to post a list of "value" stocks in mining... some or many of which might then quickly drop by 20 - 30 - 50%, bottoming right after I post them... which I might call "a good thing"... while others might not see it that way. My focus tends to be on "patient ownership" of value found... which doesn't preclude doubling down on them on bad days in the market... and thinking good of it. I will have a composite "value" list of worthy issues to buy / hold for longer term... to post "pretty soon"... I know already that it will include many of the names I've followed as "value" for a while already... some already having made their "suppression exit" moves... TLRS... long ignored... but a recent mover, finally finding what they've been looking for... NMREF... the definition of ignored... rare earth's in Namibia... and "more" being ignored... 50% undervalued PGEZF another I mention often... having consolidated a twin to Sibanye-Stillwater's trend in Montana... There are a lot of undervalued potentials to sort out of the Newfoundland and Golden Triangle B.C. camp pages... which is why I put them together... to get to know them and simplify the sorting out of them later... Some "no brainers" in Newfoundland, I think, at the lows in NFGC, NFLDF, NKOSF, TRUIF, GORIF, and certainly others... most of them being roundly ignored now, versus last May... Plenty of them in B.C., too... including SA and a couple of her lesser known neighbors... I've noted "troubled" stocks recently... including picking GPL at the low, likely to thrive again "soon"... if and as silver does what most seem to expect it will "soon"... HL is up off the bottom... worth owning, even if not a "junior"... Oil stocks are already done being abused this cycle... In oil... GTE a perennial favorite will remain so... with a hard to beat PEG ratio of 0.25... and a lot of quality ground to explore. Recent "swing for the fences" find worth poking at... RECAF... another Namibia story.... with "big potential" for big oil finds... sole owner of "a Permian Basin scale equivalent" but very early.. it will take time... and. can't say its done its "bottoming" already... but news could send it (either way)... so worth holding a few shares to monitor it for potential value altering news flow. I still like juniors in partnerships with majors... so TMQ a carried 50% partner in a copper deal... on sale nicely just now after getting kneecapped by Biden's environmentalist crazies in Alaska... with a chart that looks a lot like symmetrical bookends applied to an 2 year long inverted cup now being "closed out" early by bad news as happened at GPL Recent holes with 9 meters of 3 to 4% copper equiv. in a large project make it one of the best development potentials in the world... with strong local support. Craziness in potential "value" on the cheap at Ore Finders... as 25% carried partners with Kirkland Lake in working expansion potential there... with exploration budgets only expanding now, post merger... Same, I think, at Adamera... DDNFF / ADZ.V... carried for 25% in a project backed by Hochschild... while they also have independently held non-project potential in the same area. The project is exploring and appears to be finding over-looked new potential in a large former Kinross producer that they shut down fairly recently. Producers often being lousy explorers, as Kinross clearly was in this instance... is Adamera's gain. None of that is "news" being broken here... mostly stuff I've been posting about for a long time. Early stage picks still require patience many don't have... a lot of them will remain virtual unknowns even while succeeding... either becoming absorbed by partners or getting know as projects progress...