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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Walsh who wrote (34846)	2/9/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ------------------------------- So far the overall market is flat(plus or minus 30 DOW points). So far the highest the DOW got was up 25 points. If the DOW goes no higher it would be 5 days in a row that the DOW's intraday high remained within 50 dow points. For the candlestick watchers, if the intraday highs and lows remain the same (UP 25/DOW 19), and the DOWS closes flat, it would be a good reversal signal to the downside. Now if the trading range is no greater, such will intensify the reversal signal. So fat the range between today's HIGHs and LOWs is only 45 points - so far. I am not saying it will stay in that range, just stating that if it does. I sold my my OSX MAR calls for 16 1/8, which I obtained for 11.5 for about a 40% gain. Acquire another small position in the DJX MAR 83's for 2.50 when the DOW was up about 10-15 DOW points. I would have been more aggressive by going with FEB calls and larger volume if today was WED/THUR. Subjectively, I feel that Friday should be a down day in light of the 3 day weekend and expiration week. Here's a little technical tibit - take a look at the DOW peaks in AUG, OCT, and DECEMBER. I am not implying that if we do get a pullback this time that it will be as strong as those in AUG,OCT,DEC. But take a look at what those months did during expiration week. Subjectively, one can say that OCT and DEC was still during a time of uncertainty, but look at at AUG after the huge runup, the DOW still dropped about 575 points by expiration date. The high was 8298 on AUG 7 and on AUG expiration day(AUG 15) it closed at 7695. The total range for the pullback was about 600 points. I am still not saying that if this pullback occurs that it would be as much as the one in AUGUST after the big summer runup, but lets say that it only pullbacks 1/2 of the AUG pullback, that is still 300 points. This recent pullback can be argued that it is still not the same as the one in the SUMMER, and I agree, but to say that there is no chance of a pullback is not a healthy position, since the market can pull back at any time. The key right now for me is how much. Seeya