not going to be holding together for what might be coming for them...
LOL!! Maybe if Putin could make it more than half way across Ukraine in a month... without bogging down in the face of the local resistance... it might be more realistic to think that there's actually a real military contest occurring.
And, as the nature of the events in Ukraine show Putin shadow-boxing with himself... and losing ? Hmmm. Yeah. Ukraine is about as much like a war between Russia and NATO... as Afghanistan was in the 1980's version...
I'd not begin to slight the effort being made by the Ukrainians... It appears they're doing Yeoman's work without a whole lot of support.. after being set up, it seems, by the Davos crowd who were fully expecting them to play this assigned role... while those most deliberately enabling and encouraging them before... seem to have fully expected them to fail long before now ? It appears... inconvenient... that there's no resolution ? Some talking head at the Pentagon quoted recently as saying it (what we have now) could last "years" ?
I still think everyone's better off without it being forced to a quick resolution... as that has the potential to make things vastly worse and far less stable. It "lasting for years" sounds bad... but, it's already lasted for years ? This didn't just start in 2022 ? Whether or not it can ever be throttled back is the issue...
And, that's looking like its almost as much of a problem for the west as it is for Putin... as the unexpected stiffness of the defense made seems its caught everyone off guard and unprepared to deal with what even partial success in defending Ukraine imposes...
But, even if you think Putin pushed all the greenest of conscripts and reserves out ahead to get bloodied on purpose, and "toughen them up"... while he kept the "real" force in Reserve... ? Even if you buy the B.S. that "it's all going according to plan"... well... then the fact the plan seriously sucks isn't any benefit... and the "success" of it winning new objectives only on re-invention... still clearly doesn't do anything useful to intimidate anyone you thought might be intimidated ?
The only clear winner apparent thus far... probably the Turks... with a big boost in drone sales.
It really shouldn't have been all that much of a surprise after the Armenian's got it handed to them while enabling the newest territorial additions to Azerbaijan ?
There's really no way to put that much lipstick on a pig... when the logistics are clearly unable to supply it in that quantity...
So, the military contest in Ukraine appears it isn't really the core issue, now... however you parse the Russians efforts... and their fallback to adopting a scaled down set of objectives in a "plan B"... which seems not different than what was already happening before... only with the admission that prior efforts to resolve it without overt use of force have now definitively failed... That, or the Ukrainians defenses have succeeded in everything but forcing Russia out of Donbass, Crimea, and where-ever else they're wandering to, now...
So, now it's just like it was before only in a wider spread conflict that's bringing along the risk of much worse coming in tow...
And, probably more important... is that the rest in what has changed... shows that it's now unavoidably clear that the strategic conflict between Russia (and thus China) and Russia's neighbors is being embraced.
Militarily... Russia appears wholly, even shockingly, incapable of competing with NATO on the battlefield... even without having encountered any of the NATO front line weapons or forces, yet. That's fully consistent with what's been apparent in serial incidents since, and including, the Gulf War, too... That's now looking even more true across the full spectrum of combat operations as it was then... right up until the nukes start flying... But, having that clear superiority... and never having had any real intent in ever using it... also still makes it largely irrelevant in the contest that is emerging now... as by not using the force you do have... its not "accomplishing" anything other than some "containment" of risks. Russia's poor performance isn't intimidating NATO... or (probably more importantly) anyone else... but, neither is an entirely passive NATO likely to alter Russia's behavior... and while doing nothing to alter it... shouldn't expect change ?
So, military stalemate as an entering argument... and "by choice" on Europe's side, as it sustains its defensive nature... while self imposed on the Russian side... leaves Putin still wholly unfettered in his choices... even if they are becoming increasingly self limiting...
For Russia, its now forced to become a question of finding an adequate non-military strategic counter to others non-military strategic gambits... needing that it doesn't have them bleeding out before it has any ability to make a meaningful impact... while needing it not forcing them into a larger military confrontation that they don't want and clearly can't win...
Ukraine has served its purpose for the instigators in the Davos crowd... by providing the spark that lured Putin into legitimizing the rest of what they clearly have had planned... and, with it fanned to a low flame, what happens to the tinder is of relatively little importance in the larger contest it has now initiated...
And, that larger contest remains... for now... dominantly non-military in nature... if with a lot of risk that it could spin wildly out of control far more rapidly than can be countered or controlled again...
It remains very obviously true that the biggest losers, thus far, geographically, are Russia and Europe... while the most obvious winners are those most clearly isolated from the conflict... so, Brazil, first... then India... (if with a great potential to screw it up)... with the U.S. and China each extracting benefits in different ways... but in ways that put their positions at risk if the tide turns against them unexpectedly...
Europe has a lot more to lose in terms of "the cost of the impacts" but with farther to fall... but, short of the war expanding dramatically in scope and scale... there's nothing I see that's posing any real threat to Europe's survival... as a place... even if events we see now dictate changes will be coming...
But, beyond the geography... ? Also not at all clear that the Globalist / Davos crowd have even a snowballs chance in hell of "winning" the conflict they've ignited... which they appear to assume they will win "by default"... It looks to me like... the mirror image of the Russians in terms of their excessively optimistic military expectations... as the Davos crowd are every bit as much sure of the "Cake Walk" they've arranged for themselves... in seeking to sustain their position of power and political control ...
As much as Russia is defeating itself militarily... the Davos crowd are doing exactly the same to themselves in the non-military aspects of the conflict... by undermining core sources of (their own) western power that they see only as obstacles to themselves in taking more. From "this is what failure looks like"... as that is what they intend... there's still an issue or two to resolve in the risks taken they intend others will bear, in those others, not unaware, not planning on bearing those costs and owning the liabilities, and in the Davos crowd badly misjudging failure modes... as well as opponents capabilities...
So, in that sense, for both Russia and those attacking them obliquely... its obviously not only about "winning your objectives"... but about holding them... when no one wants you there... and everyone is tired of you.
So, I think you're going to see a lot of political change occurring in result of the obviousness of the choices made... certainly should expect some dramatic changes occurring in Europe and the U.S., perhaps also in Russia and in China... as it becomes clearer "who, what, and why"... in the various failures being imposed... in a war in which deprivation is made a key weapon...
And, with a bit of luck, still not avoiding it... that will all occur with the military adventures remaining on the scope and scale that we can see now... as mostly smaller in scale, mostly exploratory in scope, and almost wholly incompetent in execution... I'm not an optimist by nature, however... which leaves me stuck thinking hoping for luck is not much of a plan...
I think it increasingly likely Putin won't last much longer... with that risk growing larger the longer it drags on. I think that's true... not immediately... or because of or in agreement with any of the efforts made in the west in propagandizing the "Putin is losing it" narratives... and not focused on it because I see there's any real threat posed to Russian territory or sovereignty in, by, or from Ukraine, or in any direct result of the Russians military failures there... But, indirectly ?
So, I'd not present that event, even in its occurring, as a "win" as they might... rather than as a ratchet in risk and uncertainly that's far more likely to make things dramatically worse rather than improve things...
But, Ukraine's successes... even if minor and even if tentative in nature... cost others almost nothing... and address only a very small portion of Russia's borders... but command the focus of a fairly large part of the Russian military forces...
Russia doesn't appear, now, to have the military capability it requires to be able to successfully defend its borders from encroachment... even without having the burden of the engagement in Ukraine occupying them in a way that they really can't extract themselves from now... Pretty much everything east of the Urals is starting to look like it might become "an Oklahoma Land Rush" situation any time, now...
So, I see growing risks others are mostly ignoring... as Putin's failure is likely to result in Russia "taking care of that issue" internally... in a way that's more likely to make the problem worse rather than resolve it... While the "Oklahoma Land Rush" scenario only becomes more likely as Russia's economy contracts... it would likely foster massively larger risks in conflicts over resources.... among those seeking to take them.
I don't expect that "soon"... but... "slowly at first, then all at once" is the nature of that beast... while everything occurring now all seems it is trending into miring down... making a slog... as cans get kicked.
And, that's still "the best possible outcome" ?
There''s a growing risk developing in the strategic mismatches... as It's almost irrelevant at this point... what Russia manages to do in "better securing Donbass"... if Siberia goes walkabout... or in linking up to Crimea with a land bridge stolen from Ukraine... if the Russian Far East is lost... while all that "upside" still leaves Russia unable to sustain a "win" without the ongoing cooperation of Ukraine... ?
That's focused on "Russia" as a potential "failed state"...
But, given the plan, and all parties cooperating in trying to foster failure and not lose a race to the bottom ?
Those celebrating the emergence of a "multi-polar" world now... thinking that means the pole they occupy is somehow not held at growing risk of division ?
Once you start down this path... there are no convenient exits... only relative degrees of risk and advantage as relatively greater dependence on and attachment to fragility begins to express itself......
Big conflicts... tend to constrain smaller ones....
As the big ones dissolve into failure or stalemate... the long constrained little ones tend to emerge with a vengeance...
So, the mice will play... when the cat is present, but fully enough occupied in dealing with rats...
I'm not making specific predictions...
Just noting that... when you see what we see now... a lot of bad stuff is coming, and is going to happen... and, just like is fitting in the era of Covid... reality is... no one is immune...
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