Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (25845)	2/9/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: bob gauthier	Respond to of 132070

DSL Michael: I believe something like DSL will be the next killer app. I think the internet will move to a different level when PC's are turned on 24 hours a day and email/voice/pictures are delivered in near real time to everyone. What do you think? What companies will be the winners? Just my thoughts. BobG...

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (25845)	2/9/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: GuinnessGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, "I think the next killer app will be simplification,[snip] You may just have something there. Have you checked out SYSF? Their earnings and stock price are really in the toilet, but the idea behind their very existence seems to be this simplification theme. Maybe they are just ahead of their time. Might be worth a look-see. Try: www1.wsrn.com quote.yahoo.com and: edgar-online.com if you want to learn the gory details.-g- BTW -- Are you sure that one would have to pay $1000-$2000 to upgrade their box to do games? Maybe so if they shopped at Dell(g) for their parts(at up to 4X market value), but otherwise.... Craig

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (25845)	2/10/1998 1:34:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hello Michael, . . I'm glad that my article about the future PC killer app made its circuitous way to you. I've been a reader of your stuff since before this thread was begun. <g> I'm happy to say I've made good money with ISIP and GZTC on your recommendations. I should also mention that I've lost money on CPQ and DELL puts, also on your recommendation. <g> Net, I've about broken even. . . I value your judgment so I am responding to your comments. I will respond briefly here and later forward to you an article I am working on that is a continuation of this topic. You said: Also, I absolutely do not believe the number of folks who buy for the Internet and then upgrade to build their own web pages or whatever, is substantial. . . I believe we agree that increasing PC penetration is driven today by the Internet. Viewing the entire population in a Geoffrey Moore perspective of a technology-resistance curve, we see that a combination of both the Net and a much lower entry price point has moved us farther up that resistance curve. Recent statistics bear this out. According to an ongoing IntelliQuest study 15 million new users joined the Net in 1997. [ newsbytes.com ] . . Some of these were already computer owners, but I believe many were first-time PC buyers, lured by low prices and peer pressure. The confluence of these factors are pushing PC penetration up the resistance curve. . . I disagree with your contention of insignificant upgrade activity. Recently I've come to the conclusion that these cheap PCs may be a tremendous blessing for Intel and Microsoft in disguise. Students of physics know that the force of friction is greatest on an object at rest. The highest hurdle is the first one. Many first-time computer buyers fall in love with the machine and become avid upgraders. I have only personal experience and anecdotal evidence to support this, but then again, you have only anecdotal evidence to support your claim. <g> . . The point is, computer ownership, like the Mafia, is a lifetime thing. Very few computer owners transition from a state of computer-use to a state of non-computer-use later in their lives. (Unless maybe for members of the Yakuza who lose all their fingers <ggg> at that point you're REALLY rooting for AUI <gg>.) Furthermore, once YOU have one, the bar is lowered for your friends, your relatives, your neighbors, your children. Your implied advocacy by ownership affects everyone in your circle of acquaintance who doesn't yet have a PC. It's a lot like the early era of automobiles. You said: I think the next killer app will be simplification, with voice recognition and rationalization of the pc's software. . . This was partly my original point. A well implemented AUI (audio user interface) will simultaneously lower the barrier to entry for prior non-users and increase the capabilities of the machine for power-users. This is why it is a killer app, appealing to the broad market. . . Furthermore we are witnessing greater segmentation of the PC market, and rightly so. Simplification will help address the "late majority" segment of the market. Right now we are crossing the chasm between "early majority" and "late majority" with the attendant confusion and upheaval. The vendors are reengineering themselves to sell to what is really a new market. Evidence: initiatives like USB, Microsoft's PC98 and Compaq's Device Bay. You said: If it is as easy, as reliable and as cheap as a tv, it can some day sell like tvs. . . I disagree. A computer will never be as easy, reliable or cheap as a TV, very simply because a computer does so much more. However there WILL come a time when computers outsell TV's. We will also see some convergent evolution of these devices. PC's are more like cars than TV's. Cars are less easy, reliable, and affordable than TV's, and they always will be, but they still sell just as many. You said: However, I own a 13 year old tv and have never felt any desire whatsoever to upgrade to a new model. . . Do you think you'll be using the computer you buy today in the year 2010? So, what are your thoughts? PX P.S. You said: As for games, why would anyone pay an extra $1000-2000 for a more capable computer gamester box when the best pc does not approach the capabilities of a $300-600 game machine . . Michael, I respect your opinion in your fields of knowledge. Gaming is not your field of knowledge. <g> Your numbers are way off base here. Plus, console games and PC games are NOT the same, you have Soul Blades and Tekkens on the one hand versus Quake 2 and Ultima Online on the other. Totally different types of games. . . I hope you don't decide to use your LARS on me for this <g>.