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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Julius Wong who wrote (3650)	4/18/2022 5:55:58 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5827

That doesn't hurt anything, does it... Poking at the correlation charts today... where there are a couple of squirrels fussing about. Silver and copper, oddly, have quite frequently... but not always... been trading as opposites in the short term correlation charts... which doesn't make too much sense to me... Or, if it makes sense... why doesn't it always make sense ? But, also seeing a strong correlation in a pairing between copper and nat gas (as BOIL)... in opposition to silver (as AGQ)... and the copper miners... since, for whatever reason, the miners are trading in opposition to the metal, for now...so the higher copper goes... the lower the miners fall ? Don't remember what I was poking at when I noted it... that MUX was correlated in opposition to copper... but, it tweaked me to follow it up... The oscillators are tied to price with out any great rigor... price wanders from them often... it has gas moving lower already... when that's not exactly what BOIL did today... starting at $101 and topping out just shy of $113 before falling back. I was a bit fast today... bought KOLD Calls around 11:30 when BOIL was only $108... but it closed below that at $105, so, thus far, looks good. If BOIL opens at $120 tomorrow... maybe not so much, but it sure does looks like a capitulation trade in KOLD today... on 27.8 million traded into a falling knife... while in BOIL you can see the ADL was falling from late March as BOIL soared...those who bought lower taking profits... until it hit ~$72, and ADL started rising again, as new money came in chasing BOIL higher... which makes me start to get nervous. KOLD today, plunged to the bottom of the chart... and, there, it did that little tail tap I look for in bottom charts, and did it in perfect alignment with the bounce (off a bottom ?) in the ADL, a bounce in the ROC 2, and a convergence between the lower bolly and the Special K... at the exact low the ROC's made on Feb 4... way too much symmetry to be random coincidence... (hopefully)... But, should never take those things as "fixed". If KOLD moves lower tomorrow... those ROC "lows" will stretch lower with it... as they're "relative" and not fixed values when grounded in the context of the price chart... The May 20 BOIL 55 calls... traded up to $52.70 today... from the $4.40 I paid... which is not too shabby. There is a remarkable lack of information in the market about Natural Gas prices right now... I searched around quite a bit... and, outside the trade press, found essentially nothing being said about it... but, Google helpfully suggested a large pile of adds for treating boils... Oil Price today... packed with news I can use... which isn't overly common... more on that later... So, bought MUX today... a copper explorer, not a copper miner... but a gold miner... with a high value "name brand" well worth owning "early". Along with many of the other copper stocks I poked at today... it seems it is inversely associated with the metal price in the correlations for some reason... I'm long silver as AGQ... and just bought a few KOLD calls just thinking BOIL was looking peaky... And, did all that based on looking at each of them... separately... before thinking to look at the correlation charts for them more specifically... Copper is already well down the correlation chart... suggesting gas might follow it... "soon"... while the Oil Price article says the cold weather sticks until Wednesday... I think the trade is probably done... making today a timely move in reversing it...(I hope) before others... And, then, if that is right... expect silver might move up a bit more quickly, too... along with KOLD and copper miners ? At least until the correlations all swap up, again... but, "for now"... What weird place the market is... Tomorrow or the next might become more interesting: the comparison charts show SPXS and SPXL completing a mean reversion... and so might finally "do something"... But, maybe they'll drag it out another few days before letting it go anywhere ? And, UVXY is being abnormally well behaved just now... actually sort of tracking with the things it is supposed to track with... which makes me nervous, when there's not an obvious bias or "error" in the skew applied in the the trade to let you trade against it ? The regular guy must be on vaca... Except... look at the daily... and UVXY has traded flat since January... when its a wasting asset... that should be carving a steady slope lower from left to right... So, they'll set up a chart to sucker people in with it looking like UVXY should soar... SPY crash... then do the opposite... and take UVXY down hard, below $8, which is where its time value is, about now... So, might have to go back to the correlation charts to try to parse the timing... as it creates the difficulty that the "market" might crash any minute.... making long UVXY a good trade... but, the UVXY might crash any minute too.. so... pick your poison... BOIL / KOLD much less complicated now... I might be wrong, still... but, it won't be due to complexity... KOLD: BOIL: VIX/SPY: