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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (186596)	4/19/2022 10:59:40 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 217734

C2 that is recent events - meaningless events you need to go back all the way to Roman times to understand the ethnic dynamics at stake. Russian heritage is despicable no matter how you look at it. Russians are not Slavic they invaded the Slavic tribes and made them pay tribute to the Rurik's. Only later they converted to Byzantine Christianity. Their tactics where simple and best example is Dacia - Romania. After WWII the Red Army cut off half of Bucovina and attached it to Ukraine, the uprooted and killed the local population and brought instead Russians. My mother is from Bucovina Romania. Same thing with Moldova they cut of everything east of the Prut River to the Dniester same tactics uprooted the local farmers by train and who resisted was shot. That region is Bessarabia, called now Moldova my dad is from Moldova the old one which is still in Romania. They did the same to the Crimean Tatars and also in eastern Ukraine what we call now Donbass. en.wikipedia.org Read more all the way back to the start of the invasion of the Rurik clan about 1,050 years ago

To: carranza2 who wrote (186596)

4/20/2022 1:24:28 AM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 217734

Re <<… conflict …>>

Unsure what below might be all about, but many can read all sorts of underlying currents into the scripting per narrative-flow.

Care for the environment on the one hand
Strategic export of inflation on the other
Tactical rehearsal on the third
Diplomatic messaging on the fourth hand
Great-good / common-prosperity inflation-fight on the …

… pretty soon one runs out of hands

Whatever the case, i doubtful of Bloomberg’s take re << improvisation >>, because China China China rarely tee-up improvisation.

The proper Chinese phraseology for improvise actually is a four character grouping that literally means “depending on the opportunity make corresponding changes [to plan]”, as opposed to ‘wing it’.

As far as the Bloomberg reported China export of copper (scroll below to near-end), that be simply ‘buy low sell high’.
Either taking advantage of inflation or fighting inflation. Unsure which.

bloomberg.com

China’s Sudden Pledge to Cut Steel Output Upends Carbon Policy

Stimulus will likely require rise in production later in year Nation’s copper exports increase to the highest since 2016

April 20, 2022, 12:36 PM GMT+8
China’s promise to cut steel output for a second year looks like a bit of improvisation by the government, as a resurgent virus sweeps through the economy and chokes production in any case.

Beijing’s sudden pledge on Tuesday comes barely two months after it extended the steel industry’s deadline to peak its emissions by five years to 2030. The laxer stance was adopted after production crashed in the second half of 2021 because of the government’s insistence on reducing output from the prior year’s record in service of its climate goals.

The steel industry accounts for about 15% of China’s emissions, and the new policy seemed to indicate that the government was preparing the ground for carbon-intensive spending to support growth. It also suggested a broader reassessment of plans to decarbonize the economy, with more priority being placed on reining-in inflation and preventing damaging shortages of key materials in the wake of last year’s power crisis.

But the slowdown in the economy, driven in large part by the spread of the virus and the government’s crackdown on the metals-intensive property sector, has left steel output in the first quarter languishing more than 10% below last year’s levels. Further weakness is likely in April after a new round of lockdowns in the production hub of Tangshan.

The China Iron & Steel Association said mills have been asked to cut production amid limited demand. That may hold true now, but it won’t be the case once stimulus is unleashed to counter the worst effects of omicron on growth.

The bet seems to be that there’s enough headroom to raise steel output in the second half without busting the cap on production. As Kallanish Commodities Ltd. notes: “Crude steel production, and demand, have started 2022 weakly but could recover. This is the opposite to the trend in 2021.”

That calculation is helping to buoy iron ore prices, which are also drawing support from supply constraints after the world’s top two miners both reported lower production in their quarterly updates.

It also raises the intriguing possibility that China’s emissions from steelactually peaked during record production of 2020 -- a whole decade before the new deadline set for the industry, and the deadline for the economy as a whole.

Today’s ChartA global supply squeeze following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has lifted China’s copper exports to the highest since 2016. Usually known as a massive importer of metals, the country sent over 100,000 tons of copper abroad last month, nearly double February’s amount. China’s aluminum exports also surged to a record last quarter as overseas markets tightened due to the war.

Markets Latest
Copper -0.6% in Shanghai	Crude oil -2.4% in Shanghai
Aluminum -0.6% in Shanghai	Nickel -0.5% in Shanghai
Iron ore +3.5% in Dalian	Steel rebar +2.6% in Shanghai
Thermal coal -1.5% in Zhengzhou	Coking coal +1.9% in Dalian
Live hogs +0.8% in Dalian	Corn +0.2% in Dalian

On The Wire China Trying to Ensure Food Supplies Amid Challenges: Officials Solar May Generate Half of World’s Power by 2050, Trina CEO Says China to Sign Forced Labor Treaties as Xinjiang Scrutiny Grows CHINA REACT: Loan Rates Steady But PBOC Still in Easing Cycle Sungrow Outlook, Target Cut After Earnings Miss: Street Wrap China March Gasoline Output Rose 10.8% Y/y to 13.7m Tons Several Chinese Cities Ease Housing Loans, Down Payment: Daily SAIC Motor Resumes Production at Shanghai Plant: Securities News Cnooc Expects 1Q Net Income to Rise 62%-89% Y/y Cnooc Says A-Shares to Start Trading in Shanghai April 21 China’s Refined-Copper Output Growth May Slow to 4% This YearThe Week AheadThursday, April 21

BHP quarterly production report, 08:30 SydneyChina Photovoltaic Academic Conference, online, day 2Boao Forum in Hainan, day 2EARNINGS: CATLUSDA weekly crop export sales, 08:30 ESTFriday, April 22

Bloomberg China April economic survey, 10:00China weekly iron ore port stockpilesShanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30China Photovoltaic Academic Conference, online, day 3Boao Forum in Hainan, day 3EARNINGS: Huayou Cobalt, Sany HeavySaturday, April 23

China Steel Development Forum in Bejing— With assistance by Jason Rogers

Sent from my iPad

To: carranza2 who wrote (186596)	4/21/2022 1:31:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217734

Some more opinion flows ask-socrates.com Blog The Fed has begun raising interest rates right on schedule as our computer Array projected the change in trend would come in 2022. However, while this uptrend appears to be headed into 2023, not that here too we have a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle. With this lining up with targets in so many markets including our War Cycle, it looks as if the Biden Administration is going to go down in history as probably the most inept ever in American history. On March 15, the Federal Reserve raised its overnight lending rate by a ¼ point, moving its target range for Fed funds to 0.25% to 0.50% which was up from the previous 0.0% to 0.25%. Additionally, Powell warned that a total of seven more rate hikes might be in store this year. This would imply that the Fed’s overnight lending target range will return to the more normal 1.75% to 2.00% by year-end. In discussions with senior bankers, this will help restore profitability to savings and lending. Interest rates are supposed to reflect a premium OVER inflation. If inflation is 20%, it makes no sense to lend you money at 2% for that becomes a guaranteed loss when the money is repaid. Because of the TV financial evangelists who have to attribute an explanation for every move the markets make, the old standby has been the market fell because rates are higher. Higher interest rates most people think will slow the pace of economic activity and many still believe that higher interest rates will also send the economy into recession. The Fed raised rates throughout the Trump administration yet they called it the Trump Rally. Whenever we look at the markets objectively correlated to interest rates, we find that this is the number one market myth. The argument has been that recessions follow rates hikes and as such, this is where the myth comes from which can be seen just by looking at the chart above. True, the dollar rise to record highs after the Federal Reserve raised rates to unprecedented levels in 1981. The exceptionally high rates caused capital to rush to the dollar and even the British pound collapsed to $1.03 by 1985. That braindead move by Paul Volcker in 1981, then led to the rise in the trade deficit which prompted the formation of the G5 at the Plaza Accord in 1985. Every mistake those in power create sets in motion capital flows which then led these people to come up with another braindead solution that sets in motion the next crisis - i.e. 1987 Crash based on currencies following the failure of the Louver Accord. Those who always try to attribute the move of a market or the economy to a single factor will immediately point out that four of the last five rate hikes were soon followed by a recession. Hence, we will see the same again. I have written many times that I would never accept stated beliefs but tested them. When I gathered all the data, it became clear that the economy and the stock market NEVER peaked at the same level twice in history. The true factor was expectations. If you think the stock market will double next year, you will pay 20% interest. If you do not think it will go up even 1%, you will not borrow at 0.5%. Yet we have central banks that try to manage the economy with Keynesian Economic Theory which has proven to be a complete failure. Interest rates will rise but we have inflation created by the COVID lockdowns which has disrupted the supply chain. Now we have braindead people in the Biden Administration imposing sanctions and removing Russia from SWIFT. Russia is not just a major supplier of gas to Europe, it is responsible for all sorts of raw materials not to mention 30% of the wheat production. This is adding to the inflation because of SHORTAGES which was already set in motion by COVID. Raising interest rates with this type of inflation is just stupid. The hypocrisy which emerges from the West in both geopolitical thanks to Neocons, the push to end fossil fuels for Climate Change which has destroyed the living standards in third world countries such as Pakistan and then adding Keynesian economics mismanagement, it is no wonder why we are witnessing not just Pakistan moving toward Russia, but many countries including Egypt and India.