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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HB who wrote (4776)	2/9/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Running Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

If AMAT was going to miss earnings, it would have pre-warned analysts. So I think they will meet them. That doesn't say that they will paint a rosy picture for the near future. Relative to layoffs, Semitool is the only company that I have seen talk about this.

To: HB who wrote (4776)	2/9/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

As you all know, I think AMAT's going to hurt the whole sector tomorrow after close. I only managed to short a few shares -- I just didn't want to chase it down today. I sold everything today but SFAM and am holding cash waiting for Wednesday. If the sector tanks, I'm going to spread my money in my favorites long term issues and stop paying attention for six months. Actually, the action today makes me think a lot of people agree. One thing about SFAM's continued strength on a down day, with a bad earnings warning just behind. While I continue to think it's underpriced, and while the market may have just woken up to this suddenly as it did to TER and COHU, there are also persistent and undocumented rumors of a buyout. FWIW. (I personally am not that concerned about this alleged buyout. The product is there, the management is there, and the market is there. If it jumps 10 points next week, great, if not, it will get there in a short enough time that it doesn't matter THAT much.)

To: HB who wrote (4776)	2/9/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Howard, a good point and one in fact which agrees with an idea of Mason Barge's that we've been kicking around. He kind of expects AMAT to come up really short on its numbers, with a resultant big drag on the entire sector. Perspective is most important here. I was trying to look at what the market currently thinks. Your perspective is perhaps more sage, ie, if the news is a contrary surprise, the reaction will probably be swift and ugly. I'm out of semis right now, and seeing what I perceive to be today's downdraft, I think there might be more of the same tomorrow. I might look to jump back in (cautiously) after the open on Wednesday, although I think the BTB ratio (which Shane and Mason and I have been talking about) due out next week (Shane, Mason says Wed. or Thurs., it's not a definite thing with respect to date) may very well carry some more disappointments and another downdraft, especially if there's ANY turmoil in SE Asia in the interim. (a lot of ifs there.) jess