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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (7136)	2/9/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: IKM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

From Briefing.com: 13:55 ET America Online Inc. (AOL) 106 +7 1/2: --UPDATE-- Cowen sets a new price target of $150 a share on issue, after the stock ran through the old target of $105. We'll see. Back in with a nibble of the Feb 100 puts.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (7136)	2/9/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Keith J	Respond to of 13594

Pretty easy really. $2/month per subscriber @ 12 months/year @ 11 million subscribers. Equals $264 million in revenue. Pure profit compared to previous revenue stream. Figure about 40% for tax, leaves about $160 million/year. Multiply by, oh lets say 15, to give it a current value equals just about $2.4 billion. I personally believe AOL is fooling themselves to think they have price flexibility. I believe they will lose some customers and will make new computer owners think twice before joining AOL. I shorted today @ 105 9/16. I too believe that the quarter numbers will be weak, given the timing of this announcement and what the announcement said. Although if this doesn't fall pretty quickly, I'll probably get out. KJ