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Politics : Politics for Conservatives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.B.C. who wrote (110134)	4/22/2022 10:02:36 AM
From: J.B.C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 125500

Don Surber All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com Thursday, April 21, 2022 Bidenflation gives Republicans a big lead in House races More than 6 months before the 2010 midterm election, I sensed that Obamacare would give Republicans their best showing since 1946, exceeding the Gingrich Revolution of 1994. I was right. Republicans had a 63-seat gain. That was the Year of Obamacare. This is the Year of Bidenflation. Republicans need to add 5 more seats to take back the House. That should be easy. I base this prediction not on the historic malfeasance, incompetence and idiocy of this president, his pot head vice president and his paternity leave-taking Cabinet. (What did I leave out? Oh yes, corruption. Once again, I forgot. I overlook Biden's corruption so often that people may think I am an FBI agent.) I base this prediction on inflation. Bidenflation. He can blame Putin but the people won't buy that. Democrats would face a challenge because Biden is unlikable. In the 2020 presidential election. Biden became the first first-term president in memory to win the election but lose House seats. Republicans added 14 congressmen. This year, we have redistricting. Republicans control many state legislatures including the ones in Florida and Texas. That should make flipping the House easier. Another 14-seat gain makes McCarthy speaker. A 40-seat gain gives Republicans their biggest lead in the House since before the Great Depression. The people in DC are depressed. Two reports from those who tout elections are pessimistic about Democrat hopes. David Wasserman at the Cook Report wrote, "President Biden's approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising reach opportunities. "This week, we're moving eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories. With these changes, there are 27 Democratic seats in Toss Up or worse, and that list is certain to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their lines. By contrast, there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse -- all of which are due to redistricting, not atmospheric factors. Republicans need to net just five seats to regain the House." So he has 39 tossup races, and two-thirds of them are now held by Democrats. Democrats might not be able to mail-in this election. We shall see. Larry Sabato's operation is equally sad. Its Kyle Kondik wrote, "As of this writing, redistricting remains incomplete in Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire. However, for the sake of argument, let’s assume the following: 1. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) gets his way, and Republican state legislators approve his recently proposed map, where we’d rate 20 districts at least leaning Republican and 8 at least leaning Democratic; 2. Missouri eventually adopts a map that preserves 6 Republican-leaning seats and 2 Democratic-leaning ones; and 3. New Hampshire passes a map with 1 Democratic-leaning seat and 1 Toss-up. "If that happens, and no other state maps change due to legal action, here would be our topline ratings: 210 seats would be rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, 198 would be rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Democratic, and 27 would be rated as Toss-ups. "Given the political environment, we’d expect Republicans to do quite well among the Toss-up races. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, they win 20 of the 27. That would result in a 230-205 Republican House, or a net gain of 17 from what Republicans won in 2020." So he is giving Republicans 210 seats. They have 209 now. 210-198 seems like a good score. Republicans would need 8 of those 27 seats to win. Democrats would need 20 of those 27 seats to win. It is a numbers game. But the most important number is not Biden's job approval, the generic congressional poll or even how much money the parties raise. The most important number this year is the Producer's Price Index, which is the best predictor of inflation out there. The PPI was 8.3% last September. Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) hit 8.5% last month -- six months later. The PPI was 11.2% last month. If inflation hits that mark in six months, Democrats will be lucky to lose only 40 seats. There is a long way to go before November 8. Biden could always start a war and be a hero. Or Kamala could put down the bong and replace him. Or pigs could fly as high as the price of bacon. Who knows? But I do expect inflation to hit 11% by Election Day. If so, Democrats will have their worst showing in decades. I doubt they will have 198 seats afterward. This is why Cook, Sabato and other Democrat cheerleaders cannot bring themselves to paint a smile on their faces and pretend this year is going to be bright for Democrats. NOTE: I will have an extra post at 7 PM.