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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (186915)	4/24/2022 2:10:46 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By sense Respond to of 219583

the vol is soooooooo tempting but I 'wait for it' because it is almost but not quite yet gold

To: sense who wrote (186915)	4/24/2022 7:39:38 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219583

Heads-up Today's Market Comments: The stock market plunged Friday, April 22nd, the Industrials losing almost 1,000 points, the largest one day closing loss in two years. The S&P 500 lost 121, the NASDAQ 100 fell 363, and the Russell 2000 lost 50. The broad stock market, as measured by the Wilshire 5000, has lost $4.0 Trillion of wealth since the March 29th, 2022 top. It lost $2.0 Trillion Thursday and Friday of this past week. The stock market fell for the fourth week in a row. Volume rose on Friday's plunge. Stocks are dropping in wave 3-down. Wave threes are usually the most dramatic. We have updated all charts for all markets we cover in this weekend's newsletter. The odds for a stock market crash increased substantially Thursday, April 21st. Here is a key reason why: The stock market triggered a fifth Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday, for the latest "Official" H.O. from April 8th, 2022. Why is an "Official" Hindenburg Omen with five observations significant? Going back over all the H.O.'s since 1985 to see if official Hindenburg Omen's with five or more observations saw a higher probability of a significant decline than if an official Hindenburg Omen has less than five observations, the answer was clearly Yes. There was a difference. Of the 57 Official H.O.'s since 1985, 34 had five or more observations. If we had a five observation or more H.O. on the clock, we noted that 32.4 percent of the time a stock market crash occurred afterwards, versus only 21 percent of the time if we consider H.O.'s that had two or more observations. *That is a significant increase in risk.* So, to put this in terms of the damage possible, if we have a five observation Hindenburg Omen on the clock, there is approximately a one out of three chance that the stock market will crash. That is where the stock market stands at this time, Thursday, April 21st. What such a signal is telling us is that there is a much higher-than-random probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months. H.O.'s are rare. Only 4 percent of the time is there an H.O. on the clock, and there have not been any stock market crashes since 1985 without one on the clock. So about 96 percent of the time, the odds of a stock market crash are remote. However, with a five observation H.O. on the clock, the odds rise to 33%. Here is another issue of concern: The Fed Funds Futures are expecting the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates 0.50 percent (one-half of one percent) in May 2022, and expect a rate rise of 0.75 percent in June 2022. The last time the Fed raised short-term interest rates 0.50 percent was in May 2000 under Chairman Greenspan. The last time the Fed raised short-term interest rates 0.75 percent was in November 1994, again by Alan Greenspan. The 2000 0.50 percent rise was a contributing factor in starting one of the worst economic Recessions the U.S. has experienced. The stock market fell 36.8 percent during this Recession. We now have three official H.O.'s on the clock at the same time. *This is a dangerous warning from the stock market.* We have noted the next Phi mate turn date and Bradley model turn date on page 16 in this weekend's newsletter. We can expect a continuing wild ride for the Stock Market in 2022. There are going to be a total of 18 Phi Mate and significant Bradley Model turn dates throughout 2022. There will be 7 turns that both cycle methods identify together. Those will likely be major turns in the stock market. By comparison, there were only 8 total Phi Mate and Bradley Model turn dates during 2021, with only two turns identified by both at the same time. We will progressively feed these forward dates to you during 2022. Trend Turns typically occur +/- a few days from these dates. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal November 26th. It fell 7 points Friday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative - 42. The Blue Chip three component key indicator generated a Sell signal Friday, April 22nd. The NASDAQ 100 three component key indicator remains on a Sell signal. The small cap Russell 2000's Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell signal. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal April 22nd, 2022 and remain there Friday, April 22nd, 2022. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, March 31st. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on April 22nd, 2022, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on April 22nd, 2022. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Demand Power Fell 15 to 470 Friday, while Supply Pressure Rose 31 to 527, telling us Friday's Blue Chip decline was powerful, with aggressive deep pockets intervention trying to slow the slide. This DP/SP Indicator generated a Sell Signal April 21st. Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments: Our HUI Key Indicators generated a new Sell signal Thursday, April 21st. Gold may have formed a second Bullish Cup and Handle pattern from 2020, at the tail end of a larger degree Bullish Cup and Handle pattern from 2011. In the chart on page 58, we show this latest pattern. If this is correct, Gold is now working through the Handle portion. Once complete, another strong rally leg will take Gold substantially higher. As for the larger degree Bullish Cup and Handle pattern, Gold broke decisively above the declining upper boundary of the "Handle" portion of a huge Bullish Cup and Handle pattern that started in 2011, several weeks ago. This is a major development for Gold, which very likely will carry over into Silver and Mining stocks. The charts on pages 54 through 58 tell the story. Nothing moves straight up or down, there are corrections as prices progress, however the long-term picture for Gold is quite Bullish. Gold is headed for 3,000. Gold may have completed small degree wave {3} up, with subwave {4} down underway now. If so, to follow will be a powerful wave {5} up. Gold fell 13.7 Friday. Silver fell 0.36, while Mining stocks fell 9.39. We will update charts this weekend. The HUI key trend-finder indicator moved to a Sell signal April 21st, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal March 5th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on April 21st. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Sell signal April 21st. On Friday, April 21st, Demand Power fell 4 to 367 while Supply Pressure Rose 7 to 398, telling us Friday's decline was moderate to strong. DJIA/SPY PPI fell 14 to negative -38.92, on a Sell DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 36.67 Slow 58.67 On a Sell DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 23.33 Slow 56.11 On a Sell DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 36.67 DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 20.00 DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 10.00 Secondary Trend Indicator fell 7 to Negative - 42, On a Sell Demand Power Fell 15 to 470, Supply Pressure Rose 31 to 527 Sell McClellan Oscillator fell to negative - 154.64 McClellan Osc Summation Index + 148.44 DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 390.6 on a Sell NYSE New Highs 20 New Lows 412 Today's Technology NDX Market Comments: The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Sell signal Thursday, April 21st, 2022, and remain there April 22nd, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on April 21st, 2022, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on March 31st, 2022, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 5th, 2022. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell Signal Monday, April 11th, and remains there April 22nd. On Friday, April 22nd, Demand Power Fell 8 to 412, while Supply Pressure Rose 11 to 462, telling us Friday's decline was strong. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal April 11th, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative - 24.8 on Friday, April 22nd. NDX 100 Purchasing Power Indicator Fell 10 to 232.96 On a Sell NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 19.00 Slow 35.40 On a Sell NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 12.00 Slow 27.60 On a Sell NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 24.8 On a Sell NDX Demand Power Fell 8 to 412, Supply Pressure Up 11 to 462 Sell RUT PPI Fell 4 to + 174.55, on a Sell RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -270.4, On a Sell McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). The tools we use are based upon price patterns, indicators and other proprietary measures that we have identified as correlative to future market trends. While an investor or trader could come up with ideas and strategies from the information published in our reports, at no time should a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended by this publication or our other services.

To: sense who wrote (186915)	4/24/2022 6:53:11 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Secret_Agent_Man Respond to of 219583

Very exciting, the anticipation zerohedge.com "The Biggest Story No-One Is Talking About": Why Albert Edwards Expects "Something In The Market Is About To Snap" It was exactly one month ago - on March 24 - when we first laid out the big dilemma facing the Bank of Japan, which on one hand was hoping to avoid a currency collapse (for obvious reasons) and prevent a crash in the yen, while on the other hand, was also hoping to keep the 10Y yield below its extremely dovish 0.25% yield curve control rate ceiling. The problem is that while the BOJ can control one or the other, it can't control both; this is what we said then: Japan, that paragon of MMT crackpots everywhere, suddenly finds itself trapped in a lose-lose dilemma: intervene in the bond market and spark a furious, potentially destabilizing and uncontrolled plunge in the yen which would also lead to galloping (if not worse) inflation, which could collapse what little faith remains in the BOJ, or do nothing and contain the slump in the yen while risking far higher yields which in a country where the debt is orders of magnitude greater than GDP, could also spell fiscal and monetary doom. As a result, the market - having long gotten used to amicable interventions from the BOJ - will now surely test one of these two outcomes, and how the BOJ responds could have dramatic consequences for this original MMT test case. Should the BOJ's reaction spark further erosion of faith in either Japan's fiscal or monetary policies, the outcome for the world's most indebted nation would be disastrous. A few days later, SocGen's permaskeptic (he is not big a fan of the word "permabear") Albert Edwards picked up on this line of thought and in an extensive note laying out his thoughts on Japan's "lose-lose dilemma", added a new twist, namely that as the yen implodes, China - whose currency has been surprisingly strong even as its economy has hit a brick wall - will follow suit and devalue its own currency. Since then two things have happened: i) as we predicted, the Japanese yen has crashed and as we discussed last week, suffered its longest stretch of one-day declines in history pushing it to a 20 year low, and prompting the BOJ to quietly beg Janet Yellen for some coordinated currency intervention (which however, the US Treasury shot down late last week)... [url=][/url] ... and just as importantly, ii) the yuan has also suddenly cratered, suffering its biggest weekly loss since the surprise devaluation in August 2015, after tumbling 2.1%; in a move which we said on Friday has spurred " Whispers Of Yuan Devaluation After Biggest Weekly Plunge Since 2015." [url=][/url] Ok, so both the yen and the yuan have cratered, largely due to fundamental schism in monetary policy as both Japan and China are the two major central banks who are currently easing (or in the case of China, mostly pretending to) even as the Fed is about to hike more than 10 times in 2022 according to market estimates. Hardly shocking and to be expected (at least for our readers). But according to Albert Edwards, who refuses to let this story drop, not only is this divergence about to get much worse, but it will lead to catastrophic market consequences. It's also "the biggest story no-one is talking about." In a note published late last week under the same title (and available to all professional subscribers), Edwards turns his attention to the yen and yuan, and writes that "surely all of us working in finance realize by now that something is likely to snap in the financial system and probably quite soon." Why? Because according to the SocGen strategist, "the rapidity of current market moves and the polarisation of the now extreme Fed (hawkish) and BoJ (dovish) policies almost guarantees that outcome.... Maybe the outcome wouldn’t be so ugly if central bankers had not spent recent decades ramping up asset prices to today’s grotesque levels through their monetary incontinence. But they did." Comparing the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan to "a car crash in slow motion", Edwards writes that polarization in central bank monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan is being stretched ever wider to the point where "at some point soon your life might even flash before you (btw that really does happen. I know because it has happened to me twice, although only one was a vehicle collision)" he writes. And while nobody died trading FX on Friday (that we know of), that's when the Bank of Japan continued to hold the line on its Yield Curve Control policy capping the 10y JGB yields at 0.25%, and even offered a second round of extremely dovish unlimited 10y bond purchases for a four-day period; at the same time the Fed's "super hawks" were trying to convince the market that a series of 50bp (or even 75bps) Fed Funds hikes were imminent (and judging by the crash in the Dow, they may have succeeded). Between these extremes of behavior, Edwards adds that "what the ECB and PBoC are getting up to is effectively just a sideshow, although still an important one." It's not just Edwards who focuses on the divergence between the Fed and the BOJ: frequent ZH guest, Larry McDonald, author of the excellent Bear Traps Report writes that the current policy divergence consists of “a) the PBOC (cutting rates, 530bn yuan additional liquidity), b) the ECB winding down net asset purchases this quarter and setting up for a 2H rate hike, c) the BoJ’s aggressive balance sheet expansion, and d) the Fed’s promising 9-12 rate hikes looking out a year with QT aggressively involved.” and concludes “This type of insane monetary policy divergence will clearly break something, that is certain." Picking up on this dire warning, Edwards notes that one place where something might break soon is in China; he quotes SocGen China expert Wei Yao who believes that the Chinese "economy is now in severe distress and requires aggressive easing. In that context, its strangulation caught between a rising renminbi and a slumping yen, is simply intolerable." This divergence - which SocGen calls the "jaws of exchange rate death" can only go on for so long before something snaps... [url=][/url] Stepping away China's problems for a moment, Edwards turns the spotlight to the Fed, whose "increasingly loud [and hawkish] chest-beating" is "for most commentators the most important financial market development at the moment." Having moved from ‘expecting the recent surge in inflation to be transitory’ to admitting they are way behind the tightening curve, it seems the Fed is now willing to hike rates by 50bp multiple times this year. Meanwhile bond prices continue to abseil at an increasingly rapid pace in the face of this gathering gale. Here Edwards interjects that a just as important development is what we first highlighted a month ago, namely that "the BoJ is engaged on an equally aggressive demonstration of their power – this time in refusing point-blank to acknowledge that 10y JGB yields will hardly even rise above 0.25% despite soaring yields elsewhere in G7. Its Yield Curve Control policy is not just being maintained, but the quantity of QE needed to maintain YCC is accelerating at warp speed. Japan central bankers are now also beating their chests in a demonstration of their power unseen in my working lifetime." One can see the direct result of this in one of the most rapid divergences in the US-Japan 10y spread in history. [url=][/url] One can also see the consequence of this yield and QE/QT divergence in the rapidity of the yen exchange rate decline recently. [url=][/url] Of course, in the end one of the two central banks will capitulate first, and that will most likely be the BOJ as it has far less firepower - both monetary and verbal - than the Fed. One can watch this in real time as US Treasury yields soar higher, while the 10y JGB yield keeps knocking at that 0.25% YCC door "and the louder it knocks, the more rapidly the yen plunges." Indeed, as we forecast a month ago, at some point, either the yen will snap, or the BOJ's defense of the upper YCC barrier will fail (or both). [url=][/url] What happens then? Well, according to Edwards, the crashing yen has been propping up US Treasuries, as yen carry traders flee local assets and find (relatively) safety in US paper. This means that any direct intervention to prop up the yen by the BOJ will lead to another snap higher in US yields as the Japanese carry trade buyer drops out of the picture. But the move higher in US yields would be child's play compared to the total collapse that would follow in Japan as the entire MMT paradigm is exposed for one epic fraud. To wit, when answering the question what happens to JGB yields when the BOJ pulls an RBA and no longer defends the 0.25% barrier, Edwards writes that while "the BoJ will persist in maintaining the 0.25% cap and all that implies" once "it abandons this ceiling or resets it higher" look no further than Australia for what happens next, which he shows shows below. [url=][/url] The conclusion: "When Australia ended YCC yields snapped higher – much higher!" A similar interest rate move in Japan, still the world's second largest economy, and one can kiss all remaining central bank credibility goodbye forever... and with it, also say goodbye to the fiat regime, which perhaps may just be the endgame here. Much more in the full Albert Edwards note available to pro subscribers.

To: sense who wrote (186915)	5/11/2022 4:32:02 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By maceng2 Respond to of 219583

Volume remains thin... even if having had a bit of price appreciation. Although, a bit more volume seems to be appearing closer to the other end of the trade... where, interestingly, they show roughly the same price on the last trade... It appears to be getting closer to realizing those risks I had noted back when they made the additions to the balance sheet... as debt used to acquire the coins imposes the inevitable in BK at a price certain... somewhere below 30,700... a margin call said to occur at 20,000... which Peter Schiff decided to discuss today... And, quite a chart...