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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (57749)	4/25/2022 8:12:17 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	3 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 kimberley towerdog Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97668

I also have to wonder about the silly valley high price areas. I haven't kept up lately but it used to be that people were using their stock options as fuel for their housing money. A lot of homes were probably bought with the high flyer stocks when things were bubbly and junk like was being day traded here were rocketing up but are now down 70%+. As the market deflates, that fuel is vaporizing. Meanwhile, property taxes are rising along with living costs. I read an article last night about how the yen and yuan are dropping relative to the dollar and how someone could blow up at any time. Lurking black swan that not many are paying attention to? One thing I forgot to mention yesterday. The VIX is in a clear uptrend. I don't recall which was which but one of my charts had the trend change back last April when other internals started deteriorating and my other chart showed it more recent at the index topping time frame around November. Regardless, the market has fundamentally changed. I expect VIX to hit the high 38-40+ area before this is done.

To: Real Man who wrote (57749)	4/25/2022 8:17:52 AM
From: robert b furman	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97668

As long as rental rates support buying a home, paying cash and renting it while it is being depreciated, the low end of housing should be supported with very firm prices. That scenario is a much more safer investment than selling to first time buyers, with poor or no credit with very little to zero down and hoping they don't mail the keys back to the lender when layoffs begin. Keep in mind a 5% mortgage is historically cheap money, unless you are a millennial. As rents go up, there is a case where first time buyers are stuck with renting, and priced out of the market. Their only alternative is renting lower end properties. My impression of Europe is many adults are lifelong renters. Owning property is the realm of savers and stable employees. There is a large class of people who never strive to own property. I know plenty of folks like that. They provide great stability in investment home ownership deemed rental property. Keep in mind the world is awash in money, and many a low price rental property is still sought by the investor class. Thus firm low end housing prices. My realtor friend in Wisconsin says any house less than $150,000, sells the first day on the market for 15 to 20 thousand over the ask. Bob