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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (3696)	4/26/2022 7:43:59 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5619

SPY Breakdown Chart SPY fell from the open, from yesterdays close at 428.50 straight down to 425... traded lower through the morning, until noon, tried to rally with the BTFD crowd at lunchtime, but failed to sustain a move... making a downward sloping M from noon ending at the 418 level at 3:30. but then closed at 416.59... and is continuing lower in after hours, now at 413.40 and still declining. Biggest issue on the price chart arose from about 1:30 to 3:00 pm as SPY neared potential support at the Fibonacci MA at 377 on the daily chart... which had other support at the same place on shorter focused charts... but it stopped short of crossing the 418 and failed to approach it for a serious test until 3 pm, when it fell hard, flirted with the MA at 417.84 from 3:15 to 3:30 when it crossed lower with some vigor, before bouncing back up to test the 418 from below, but, failed to sustain the test, candle bodies holding at or below the 418, and then, after the usual 3:30 bounce, it fall hard again in the last 10 minutes, dropping from 418 to 416... and continuing lower in the after hours... now at $413.51. On the two minute chart... you see all that above, as on my busy chart it held well below the cloud cover of the ROCs most of the day... But, note also... the volume into the close yesterday... the volume into the close today... and particularly the massive spike in the last two minutes... with the ADL plotted above showing it has the appearance of a "capitulation" event... quite similar to the KOLD chart I'd noted that on recently... In the KOLD chart though, (moving higher again today after some post bottoming consolidation) there was good reason to assume the event defined an at least interim bottom being put in, along with a peak in BOIL... as made sense in the context of the trade in natural gas. In SPY, perhaps more reason to suspect it defines the beginning of an even more significant decline rather than an end point... even as KOLD was an event plotted on a daily chart... and this is a 2 minute chart... defining a particularly bad ending to one day... but with SPY still hovering a couple of points above the prior lows at 410 in the after hours... the chart is perhaps more about the dynamic that began only at the end of the day than it is about the closing price... Daily chart below the 2 minute... suggests "room for more"... the ADL just starting to roll over...