To: Neeka who wrote (110198 ) 4/27/2022 9:06:36 PM From: J.B.C. 1 RecommendationRecommended By didjuneau
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 124859 Don Surber All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com Wednesday, April 27, 2022 FJB chants sink Democrats
The Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School released stats from its Harvard Youth Poll, a national poll of voters under 30. It is bad news for Democrats. The institute said , "55% of likely voters prefer Democrat control of Congress, 34% prefer Republican control." That's +21 for Democrats. But 4 years ago, the institute did the same midterm polling and found , "Democrat control of Congress preferred 69%-28% over Republicans." That was +41 for Democrats. Republicans have cut the margin in half. Or should I say Biden has. His surrender of Afghanistan in August led to chants of "Fuck Joe Biden" at college football games a month later. The chant was fun and contagious. It brought strangers together. They shared something in common. College is the the breeding ground of Democrats. The mocking of the Democrat Party leader was a turning point. The media ignored it but now scorns it. The chant reminded me of the antiwar chants in the 1960s. Think FJB is harsh? Try, "Hey, Hey, LBJ. How many kids did you kill today?" That was in 1967. The next year, Johnson did not seek re-election. FJB is taking hold, according to the Harvard institute's poll. The institute said, "Youth turnout in 2022 currently tracking record-breaking 2018 turnout." Ah, but all turnouts are not the same. The poll found 43% of Republican youths are likely voters, up from 36% four years ago. The poll also found 46% of Democrat youths are likely voters, down from 51% four years ago. Thus the likely voters gap shrank from 15 points in favor of Democrats to only 3 this spring. Among black people, likely voters dropped from 46% in 2018 to just 33% this year. Given that 1-in-4 Democrat voters are black, this drop in enthusiasm is problematic for Democrats. Biden's approval among those under 30 is 41% -- or about what it is overall. But the under 30 crowd is a stronghold for Democrats. 12 years ago -- ahead of Obama's first midterm -- Obama had 50% approval among those under 30. Democrats lost 63 House seats anyway. While the Cook Report and Larry Sabato say only 27 seats are up for grabs this year, I believe a 40-seat loss is the best-case scenario for Democrats. There has not been a 100+ gain for Republicans in 128 years. 2022 could make that history. And it all began when a few college students began chanting "Fuck Joe Biden" at football games. Democrats failed to respect that disrespect.