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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (187168)	4/29/2022 6:09:59 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 218922

Then what happens? The inevitable. The Ukraine ultra-nationalists will copycat earlier Russian paramilitaries and guerrilla war ensues. The chances of changing those guys attitude, as is, is zero, zilch. They will never give in. It suggests an alternative view required to be considered... given the wide awareness of the Russian's miscalculation about Ukraine being likely to roll over and play dead ? That error in expectation of some level of resistance... was paired (as so often in such things... ie, as in Iraq, where many in the U.S. were "naturally" expecting to be greeted as liberators... like in France in WW II.) with an error in expectation in the inverse. Russians thought Ukraine would be perfectly happy to become "almost" Russian again... like subservient junior honorary Russians ? Believing that Ukraine "is a part of Russia" and "wants to be a part of Russia"... obviously not correct. But, from there... you have to parse the nature of the error, and the reason for it. Because, correct or not, it is the error that has to become Russia's "that's my story and I'm sticking to it" in as much as it is needed to justify the actions taken ? And, it is that same error that has to define the resistance as "the other" (ie, "Nazi's" versus "Ukrainian nationalists") as you can't have it be Ukrainian nationalists... and ALSO have Ukrainians "being Russians" ? So, all those well meaning Russian loving Ukrainians are being set upon by a minority of "Nazi's" coercing them... trying to convince Ukrainians that they are not Russians... with the benefit of reality helping them considerably. In the degree that it is correct... that Ukraine "is a part of Russia" or "wants to be"... it requires seeing what is occurring now, not as one country invading the other... but as one country disagreeing with itself... making the events in Ukraine into a civil war with two camps competing for control... in which some "Russians" are tired of the "other Russian" thugs running things... and fully intend to replace them with a different cohort... Stripping away ideology and nationality... still leaves you with a war... thugs being thugs. But, while it is not true that Ukraine "is a part of" Russia... it is true that Ukrainians "know" Russians... including that they're intimately familiar with the Russian military, its hardware, leadership, thinking, etc., Ukraine's military are, for all reasonable purposes in consideration here... an offshoot or (former) adjunct of the Russian military, so in terms of origins, and the education of its leadership... Russian. Seeing the event as a civil war in Russia... perhaps alters one's awareness of the nature of one's own thinking (with it perhaps needing adjustment)... as well illuminating the thinking of the Russian leadership now... given they're losing their civil war ? Is it different than the hardening of opinions and the division that led to the U.S. Civil War ? Who invaded who then... and sought to maintain it as an "away game" ? How effective has Russian propaganda been... in convincing "all" Russians that they have the right cohort of thugs in charge ? The quiet rumors that the issue on the Russian ship that sank... was about "saboteurs"... and was perhaps an inside job... haven't made it to mainstream media... which is reasonable, given the improbability of any western media having any ability to corroborate such... Reporting it would be problematic. But, the flip side... is that it is Russian sources that have floated it... The "mystery" of a sudden spate of explosions inside Moldova... just as it is made obvious that Transnistria is about to be Ukrainified... I find not so mysterious... The "mystery" of a continuing series of similar but far more significant such events... inside Russia... ? Putin, as any such person in his position... has to be concerned about the palace coup... the ongoing failures (diplomatic and military) making it mar more likely... and, there have been purges of long time insiders already... some perhaps for "incompetence" made scapegoats for the failures... others perhaps more about "competence" posing a risk... Always a clear tell... when you see leaders selecting underlings who are "qualified" only as because being "lessers"... rather than "loyalists". But, that issue... call it divided loyalties meeting personal ambition... is still only one element of the risk posed... in a civil war. As the leadership group faces internal divisions... those are divisions within the leadership group... not an exhaustive list of "everyone in our own society of "just us" who thinks they'd be better off without you" ? Social division of that sort... an intrinsic element of the monarchical structure that defines any thugocracy ? Westerners, even those with legacies including a history of authoritarian or monarchical rule... tend to ignore and misunderstand the nature of the reality it imposes... and both its fragility and its inherent self limitations ? But, with the Darwinian in "the law of the jungle" as its only foundation and claim to legitimacy... it clearly poses a more of a challenge to those seeking to rule by dictat, today... in a global society which is no longer blinded to the reality... and advantages of... alternatives. And, that's EXACTLY what the Russian Civil War we can see is about ? Majorities often rule... with minority consent... and occasionally minorities might sustain power, for a time... with the tacit or grudging acceptance of the majority ? But, social cohesion is delicate... fragile... and excess has a way of accumulating... more rapidly when minorities are abused by the majority's abuses of power... while the information flow providing awareness of limits... requires more excess applied,,, when "the balance" is violated by those who rule... who refuse to listen to the rising sound of an abused people. As you narrow that down into "the situational" in specific... fascinating to note how it also broadens back out into the general... The one thing "globalism" appears to have fostered... is an abusive leadership... pretty much everywhere. I don't expect WW III to remain confined to the "Civil War" in Russia, where it is now... But, I do think it useful to adopt a broad enough view of the world... to recognize that what that means... might not be what others expect it must mean... So, have no difficulty objecting to and opposing those who have been eager to foster this war... And, have no difficulty objecting to and opposing both sides that are busy fostering a World War... Which doesn't leave me at all confused about where my self-interest lies... in relation to thugs generally, or the local variant in particular... or the organization of sponsorship enabling them...

To: maceng2 who wrote (187168)	4/29/2022 7:13:10 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By maceng2 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218922

Now its more apparent. It never seemed that much a mystery to begin with... sort of down to the "Master of the Obvious" level ? And, yes, I keep harping on the lower than historically true quality in global leadership, today... but... ??? Perhaps a useful study in how accidents of ignorance lead to the ignorance of non-accidents... Although, worth noting in the specific, still... as it clearly was a known on the U.S. side, given the specificity of the pre-event information flow from... people you would normally not accuse of disrupting the social distancing between neurons... So, must consider that the specificity itself... when the Russians had largely succeeded in conditioning public expectations in a way hindsight reveals as only intended to limit potential capacity in opposition... was likely intended as a very specific warning... with a very specific audience... who ignored it ? They flat out TOLD Vlad... you are compromised... proved it... and it didn't slow his roll at all... ? I've been noting it for years... that modern people wrongly believe themselves massively smarter than people a hundred years ago... think of people from the 1800's as near cave men. But... as I read... I understand that Steven King holds nothing over Mary Shelly... the intricacies and double, triple, quadruple entendre of Spanish playwrights... whose heads were at risk for speaking truth... spoke in fiction and comedy... as well as Shakspeare... The production of Newton, Descartes... the leading lights of the American and French Revolutions... Locke, Hume, Mill... have more to say of substance, than the entire volume of modern production... Apparently, we need to rebrand "get the lead out"... a bit more literally? So, we live in an era of Mad Hatters... whose narcissism and sociopathy is viewed as "qualification"... As self enabling "leaders" increasingly become threats to our survival... its clear that disintermediation isn't working fast enough... even as they begin trying to legitimize capturing it and converting it to empowering themselves, and centralizing power and control all the more... when plainly true that "too much already" is the fact of it... and the direct cause of our ills... And, that's how you get to "Democracy" meaning... not people vote to select representatives... but, we choose who rules you... and to"Freedom of Speech" meaning... we tell you what you are allowed to say... and you will conform or be banned... and to "Nazi"... meaning people who oppose national socialists ? Where's a modern Orwell... Rand... Mises... Hayek... They're out there... but have had their Twitter accounts shuttered... as will anyone, of any ideology, who insists on thinking... and then expressing what they think... that the algorithm has been programmed to shut down... while "they" pretend that changing its function toward "reason" would be some herculean task... rather than child's play... literally... as any one of horde of the script kiddies out there now... would easily manage it in a hour or two ? Long... from two years ago... but essential to understand... Joe Rogan: Jack Dorsey, Vijaya Gadde & Tim Pool only more as Musk's maneuvering proceeds...to change the Hatter's Guard...