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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (58445)	4/29/2022 6:43:23 PM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97130

I think it may be better to characterize 2008 as a crash than a bear. Semantics, maybe. Technically, the 2018 drop was a bear intra-day on the SPX, if memory serves.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (58445)	5/1/2022 8:49:56 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	4 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Jacob Snyder Lou Weed towerdog Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97130

Morning thoughts as I look over stuff so far.... Regarding the 4 weeks down resulted in the next week up most of the time. I just happened to remember it when I was on the NASDAQ chart so even though the SPX would probably be better, here is what I noticed when I looked back. Dec 31, 2021-Jan 31-2022 4 weekly downs 4th week low was 13764, the next week went down first to a new low of 13094 then closed up. 5/10/2019-5/31-2019 4 weekly downs 4th week low was 7448 and again the next week went down to a new low of 7292 then was up. 10/5/2018-10/26/2018 4 weekly downs 4th week low was 7448 and again the next week went down to a new low of 6922 then was up. 4/22/2016-5/13/2016 4 weekly downs 4th week low 4708 and next week down to 4678 then up Then we have 9/26/2014-10/17/2014 4 weekly downs then week 5 went straight up The prior instance was the opposite, 10/12/2012-11/16/2012 was just 6 straight weeks of down 11/14/2011-11/25/2011 4 weeks down then a gap up and run up 7/29/2011-8/19/2011 4 weeks down then a gap up, revisited the prior week low and minor bounce. I got tired of writing them all down so quit there. 2008 drop had 4-5 examples with mixed results IF your timing was good and you didn't get headfaked ( which I probably would), you could have good odds of buying a drop, keeping in mind that it was common to revisit the lows or make new lows then bounce. Results after week 5 were mixed. Some bounces were one week wonders, some were 2-4 week rallies then rolled over to new lows, others climbed as was the longer term trend at the time. As for why we would bounce and how strong? I wonder what could fuel it. Dead cat bounce where SPX outperforms RSP? Broader rally where RSP might do better than SPX? The reason I ask is I was looking at the weightings of S&P 500 stocks.. I dont see leadership for a sustained rally in the old guard right now. My list is a bit dated but the top weighted stocks I had scribbled down from a while back AAPL 5.9% Lackluster recent report MSFT 5.6% Just OK recent report AMZN 4% Totally blew it last week FB/META 2.3% Bad report GOOGL 2% Lackluster recent report BRK.B 1.45% ?????? TSLA 1.44% Twitter baggage NVDA 1.37% Semis out of favor and overvalued JPM 1.3% Banks questionable and trading down in down markets I'm still going but figured I would post while it was fresh on my mind.