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To: Vattila who wrote (45006)	5/3/2022 5:57:08 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72277

So guidance is about 5.5B since Xilinx was $1B last Qtr and the combined is guided at 6.5B. I wish they would split out Epyc vs console. Epyc is clearly north of $1B/qtr now, and they keep attributing new growth to it.

To: Vattila who wrote (45006)

5/4/2022 6:42:27 AM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 72277

AMD 2022-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $1.13 EPS on $5.89B revenue (AMD only: $1.05* EPS on $5.33B revenue)
Q2 outlook: $6.50B ± 0.20B revenue (AMD only: $5.50B*)

Rank	User	EPS	Revenue	Q2 Outlook
1	rzborusa	$1.06	$5.25B	$5.41B
2	Kelvin C.P. Wang	$1.03	$5.20B	$5.40B
3	gvatty	$1.02	$5.12B	$5.30B
4	Joe NYC	$1.00	$5.10B	$5.15B
5	neolib	$0.98	$5.13B	$5.35B
6	Vattila	$0.97	$5.10B	$5.26B
-	Zacks Estimate	$0.91	$5.00B	$5.13B
7	Pravin Kamdar	$0.90	$5.20B	$5.20B

(*) Note that "AMD only" EPS has been estimated as if the Xilinx merger was not completed, using the prior number of diluted shares (1.222B) with non-GAAP earnings (net income) estimated at $1.289B ($1.589B actual minus $0.300B estimated Xilinx contribution). "AMD only" outlook for Q2 has forecasted revenue for Xilinx subtracted, estimated at $1.00B.

Congratulations to Rzborusa for the decisive win in all categories — overestimating AMD is indeed difficult, but assuming the AMD-only EPS estimate is correct, you did it by a cent! Although Pravin fell below Zacks, due to his low EPS estimate, we all again beat Zacks on the leaderboard, which takes all the estimates into account with equal weight. See below.

Thanks to everyone for playing!

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Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores

2022 Leaderboard

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	rzborusa	1	0.25	0.21	0.21	0.2233
2	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.20	0.21	0.2142
3	neolib	1	0.22	0.17	0.19	0.1937
4	gvatty	1	0.24	0.17	0.17	0.1933
5	Vattila	1	0.21	0.17	0.16	0.1807
6	Pravin Kamdar	1	0.19	0.20	0.15	0.1776
7	Joe NYC	1	0.23	0.17	0.14	0.1764
-	Zacks Estimate	1	0.19	0.14	0.13	0.1556

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
2	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
3	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
5	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
6	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
7	neolib	3	0.71	0.66	0.61	0.6614
8	engineer	1	0.24	0.18	0.21	0.2111
9	fastpathguru	1	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.1852
10	eetnoyer	1	0.20	0.17	0.10	0.1556

2021 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	neolib	3	0.95	0.88	0.82	0.8819
2	engineer	1	0.96	0.73	0.84	0.8445
3	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
4	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
5	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
6	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
7	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
8	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
9	fastpathguru	1	0.92	0.71	0.59	0.7408
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
10	eetnoyer	1	0.78	0.68	0.40	0.6222

AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.72	0.62	0.50	0.6128
4	rzborusa	3	0.69	0.57	0.47	0.5812
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.2150
6	jc474	1	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.2020

2020 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.96	0.92	0.69	0.8601
2	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.96	0.83	0.66	0.8171
3	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
4	jc474	1	0.92	0.74	0.76	0.8080
5	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
6	rzborusa	3	0.93	0.76	0.63	0.7749

AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

2019 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
1	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
2	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
3	rzborusa	3	0.73	0.70	0.70	0.7106
4	neolib	3	0.73	0.72	0.65	0.6977
5	knykny	2	0.49	0.46	0.40	0.4496
6	gzubeck	2	0.46	0.37	0.32	0.3822
7	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.2468
8	FUBHO	1	0.21	0.20	0.25	0.2199
9	Harvey Allen	1	0.20	0.17	0.25	0.2058

2019 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	1.00	0.96	1.00	0.9871
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
2	rzborusa	3	0.97	0.93	0.94	0.9475
3	neolib	3	0.97	0.96	0.87	0.9303
4	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
6	knykny	2	0.97	0.93	0.80	0.8991
7	FUBHO	1	0.84	0.80	1.00	0.8796
8	Harvey Allen	1	0.80	0.67	1.00	0.8230
9	gzubeck	2	0.92	0.73	0.64	0.7643