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Today's Market Comments:
Stocks continued their "orderly" CRASH Monday, May 9th. Volume was strong. New 52 Week NYSE Lows rose sharply to 1,063. Nearly a third of all stocks on the New York stock exchange hit new 52 week lows. The major stock indices fell to their lowest level for the year 2022 Monday.
The NASDAQ 100 has crashed 27.2% from their November 2021 all-time highs through Monday, May 9th. Consider this as of Monday: Amazon (AMZN) has crashed 42% from its 52 week highs; GOOG has crashed 25%; Net Flix (NFLX) has crashed 75%; Facebook / Meta (FB) has crashed 49%. Tesla (TSLA) has crashed 37%. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has dropped 17%; and Microsoft (MSFT) has crashed 24%. So much for the FAANGs and friends. The Gamma Bull traders have gotten their noggins cold-cocked.
We have updated charts for the Industrials, S&P 500, and NDX on pages 41, 48 and 52 in tonight's newsletter.
There are completed and confirmed Head and Shoulders top patterns from February 24th, 2022 through May 6th, 2022 in the Industrials and S&P 500, with downside price targets 10 percent below current levels. There is a completed Head & Shoulders top pattern in the NASDAQ 100 from August 2021 through May 6th, 2022, with a downside price target 30 percent below current levels. We show these patterns in our charts in this weekend's newsletter.
Stocks are likely dropping in wave threes down. There is a small possibility that the rally from the May 2nd lows, to the May 4th highs, may need a final subwave "c" wave up for the corrective wave twos. However, we lean toward the scenario that wave two has topped and the downward power of the Bear market is pulling prices aggressively lower.
The next Bradley model turn date is this Friday, May 14th +/-.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal November 26th. It fell 7 points Friday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -29.
There several changes to our indicators from Monday's price decline. The Blue Chip three component key indicator triggered a Sell Monday. The NASDAQ 100 three component key indicator triggered a Sell Monday. The small cap Russell 2000's Purchasing Power Indicator remained on a Sell signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal May 9th, 2022 and remain there Monday, May 9th, 2022. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, May 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on May 9th, 2022, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on May 9th, 2022. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Fell 13 to 462 Monday, while Supply Pressure rose 28 to 611, telling us Monday's Blue Chip decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI Key Indicators remain on a Sell signal from April 21st.
Gold rose 7.1 Friday. Silver fell 0.8, and Mining stocks fell 2.59. Gold is stuck in the handle portion of a smaller Cup and Handle pattern. Once it completes, an upside breakout will occur.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator moved to a Sell signal April 21st, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal March 5th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on April 21st. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Sell signal April 21st. On Monday, Demand Power fell 3 to 353 while Supply Pressure Rose 10 to 416, telling us Monday's decline was powerful.
DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 16 to negative - 75.99, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 13.67 Slow 24.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 6.67 Slow 23.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 13.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 16.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 16.67
Secondary Trend Indicator fell 7 to Negative - 29, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 13 to 462, Supply Pressure Up 28 to 611 Sell
McClellan Oscillator fell to negative -222.9.
McClellan Osc Summation Index Negative - 1209.76
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 670.1 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 12 New Lows 1063
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Sell signal Monday, May 9th, 2022, and remain there May 9th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on May 5th, 2022, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on May 6th, 2022, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on May 9th, 2022. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell Signal Monday, April 11th, and remains there May 9th. On Monday, Demand Power Fell 6 to 414, while Supply Pressure Rose 14 to 498, telling us Monday's decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal April 11th, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative - 20.6 on Monday.
NDX 100 Purchasing Power Indicator Fell 13 to 201.61 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 2.00 Slow 12.80 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 2.00 Slow 12.80 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 20.6 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 6 to 414, Supply Pressure Up 14 to 498 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 7 to + 156.11, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 417.3, On a Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). |