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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dick Smith who wrote (12604)	2/9/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: drmorgan	Respond to of 22053

3Com donates Net access to teachers: news.com

To: Dick Smith who wrote (12604)	2/9/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

>>>"Having a standard under this particular scenario is a nonevent."<<< Does that jog the Ole memory? I see in some of your past posts you did hash this over already. 56-Kbps Modem Standard Smothered by Politics by Brian McWilliams, PC World News Radio January 29, 1998 The arrival of an international standard for 56-kbps modems was supposed to clear up a lot of marketplace confusion. But on Thursday, analysts, modem vendors, and Internet service providers indicated that things may get worse before they get better. This week, members of the International Telecommunications Union are meeting in Geneva to hammer out a draft standard for V.pcm, a "unified" 56 kbps protocol. The standard won't be finalized until fall, but soon after the gathering wraps up on February 6, modem makers plan to begin releasing firmware updates to their products to support the new protocol. However, because vendors from the opposing x2 and K56flex camps couldn't agree to do interoperability testing, their initial V.pcm products won't actually be interoperable. As Moiz Beguwala, vice president of the personal communications division at Rockwell, puts it, "Having a standard under this particular scenario is a nonevent." Beguwala says that users of older K56flex modems will be able to connect at approximately 56 kbps rates to V.pcm remote access equipment based on Rockwell chips. And x2 users will be able to connect to V.pcm-equipped 3Com ports. But even with V.pcm code on both ends, an x2 device connected to a K56flex device will top out at the 33.6 kbps of today's V.34 standard. Until vendors perform interoperability testing of V.pcm, we'll actually have five flavors of 56 kbps to contend with: K56flex, x2, Rockwell's V.pcm, 3Com's V.pcm, and Lucent's V.pcm. According to Will Strauss of market research firm Forward Concepts, it could be a year before we see truly interoperable V.pcm code running at most ISPs. "There is going to be a transition period," says Strauss. "And ... the ISP will have to have a separate rack of modems for each protocol." America Online is the world's largest provider of 56-kbps service, with x2 and K56flex available in most U.S. cities. Matt Korn, AOL's vice president of operations, told News Radio that AOL is unlikely to begin upgrading its equipment to V.pcm until next quarter. Because of the possible disruption to existing users, Korn says AOL intends to deploy V.pcm with caution: "We're never going to change a phone number or a rotary and have it stop working for any of our members," Korn says. Complicating matters, however, for AOL and other ISPs will be a heavy marketing push from modem vendors. Strauss of Forward Concepts says margins have been thin on x2 and K56flex modems, and vendors are chomping at the bit to bring new V.pcm modems to market. As Strauss describes it, "This will give the modem houses--Zooms, Hayes, U.S. Robotics--an excuse to come out with a new box saying 'honest-to-god 56K-standard modem,' and they'll be able to put higher prices on what in essence is the same damn box. ... with a little more hype, and different code." This spring and summer promises to be a repeat of the situation that trapped early 56 kbps adopters last year. Modem companies will embrace the new technology, but many ISPs will move slowly to delay buying equipment and to prevent disruptions for their non-V.pcm users. Incompatible versions of V.pcm won't bother Netcom Communications. The big ISP currently offers exclusively x2 connections in more than 60 cities, with 40 more coming online by spring. Director of technical services Jack Snavely says Netcom plans to aggressively roll out V.pcm to its subscribers soon after the ITU releases the draft standard. "I'd like to support the standard as soon as it's available," says Snavely. "I don't want to duplicate my rotaries just so I can support both." Snavely adds that he expects to deploy V.pcm within a few weeks after the first products ship. The international 56-kbps standard was supposed to eliminate buyer hesitation. But the stalemate could continue as newcomers delay purchasing V.pcm modems until ISPs offer the service. Meanwhile, some ISPs will be waiting for a critical mass of users to upgrade before they roll out V.pcm dial-ins. Modem vendors will be watching closely to see if such a deadlock occurs, and if it does, they may resort again to price-cutting to goose the V.pcm market. pcworld.com