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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (187498)	5/14/2022 3:34:40 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By Pogeu Mahone Respond to of 217734

"Turkey doesn’t favor" = "what's in it for me" ? Erdogan not ever accused of being overly smart, or subtle? Looking for leverage where ever he can get it? At least he avoided yelling " show me the money"... Europe's response likely to be... unfailingly "polite"... more like Tom Cruise than the equally amused but less well filtered Cameron Diaz... With Erdogan's "terrorists" already wandering freely in every other European country... it obviously doesn't make a lot of sense to float the objection he did in the way he did... on that basis... only less as it pokes all of Europe in the eye with that same stick ? Erdogan appears to believe he can easily afford to do that ? But, few would benefit more from the Finn's and Swede's joining up... than Turkey would. So, Erdogan the brilliant strategist... outing himself as roughly on par with Erdogan the brilliant economist ? Given the choice... and the high probability of Erdogan going stupid at some point over Greece, Cypress, or maritime boundaries... or even Syria, as Russian capacity declines... most Europeans would likely prefer to onboard the Scandinavians and cut Turkey loose... and deal with Turk's shared security interests on a bilateral basis. Almost no one addressing the issue of how Russia's strategic challenges to Europe in actively conducting warfare "below threshold" to drive creeping border changes using little green men and political subversion paired with economic coercion... has forced NATO to broaden its own remit into the "political"... As NATO becomes more focused on responding to the "threshold" issues in the political challenge versus the practical in hard borders seen as hard limits with "all or none" responses based on red lines... that shift into a new found flexibility of purpose is likely to express itself in other ways... A clear risk Erdogan might be overplaying his hand... again... except... the lazy Euro's would then need to find someone else who they might use to outsource the "manning" of the force... Ukraine... clearly doesn't need to be "part of NATO" to have those same common interests expressed... Note that as being a core element in Putin's miscalculations... his error in thinking Ukrainians' opinions didn't matter without NATO guarantees backing them... right along with his "misunderestimation" of the fight in that dog... and the error in expectation that NATO would limit itself to defending red lines at borders... when Russia would not honor others borders as being limits ? Putin failed in thinking NATO's self limits and its intrinsically defensive nature... left him a wide open field for offensive operations focused on re-taking everything back up to those NATO borders ? That was never the deal. NATO had no real interest in extending NATO eastward... and there was never any reason to do so as long as Russia avoided threatening its defenseless neighbors... much less making the mistake of thinking if could reconquer eastern Europe with no one caring about it... while NATO passively watched ? The core problem in Europe remains... that Russia won't stay inside Russia... and live peaceably with its neighbors... while continually claiming a "right" to threaten and coerce the guy next door... only because he doesn't like the guy who lives door to him ? Russians seem to think that's clever... when it's obviously... stupid. Perhaps it will change... as a new generation of Russian bureaucrats emerge... whose brains aren't quite as thoroughly pickled as are those of the older generations ? (And, the same should be said re the Clinton / Biden / Pelosi crew fostering the current conflicts.. although, on the left, alcohol isn't the only path leading to pickled brains ? ) No doubt in the long term... there could be lots of borderless Turks and Ukes more than happy to pick up some of the load for NATO... for a western soldier's pay... while creating many fewer of those issues for Turks in the conflicts that Erdogan's "eccentricities" introduce... The Euro's self strangling dependency on bureaucracy... gives Russia the unwarranted expectation of an open field... also prevents them thinking like Alexander the Great... to Erdogan's benefit. But, while Erdogan pokes them in the eye... organizing cadres of more ideologically aligned Turks in the west... as direct hires... an easy solution that seems not to have occurred to them. But, as Turkey's NATO related interests under Erdogan are obviously more situational than philosophical... Erdogan making Turkey a continual pain in Europe's and NATO's ass...still has reality not allowing Turks to shift focus in relation to their shared interests with NATO... but, as NATO might figure that out, too... that Turkey doesn't have to be a part of NATO to enable them in holding their own corner... ? Betting on Erdogan's "sound judgement" in considering how things are likely to play out... ? Not me. But, also can't bet on the Euro's bureaucracy properly parsing and defining differences between asses and holes in the ground ? It can't possibly.... no... knock on wood... As Erdogan pokes the Euro's... and poses as many risks... and growing risks... as he does... while the advantages Turks offer are looking less advantageous... there may be more benefit discovered soon in thinking about building better walls between them... as under Erdogan Turkey's reliability converges with "random eccentricity"... that may tend to become increasingly erratic and Bidenesque over time... So, given a Turkey not different now than other states led by pseudo-wannabe-actual-dictators... have to balance their personal probable half life against the pain in the ass factor imposed... to determine where thresholds of tolerance and patience converge... and where they are likely going to be exceeded ? As nation state focus shifts from "defense of borders" to border-less politics... in the current miasma... so to does focus necessarily shift from the politics of borders... to the personal... as institutional power is dis-aggregated from functional societies... and re-aggregated as control by dysfunctional personalities... As in so many things, Soros's pretense of interest in an "Open Society"... intends and delivers the opposite. We do appear to be reaching "peak moron" in global leadership... along with "peak gerontocracy"... which doesn't mean self correction occurs in a way that rewinds clocks and "fixes" what they've set out to break ? But, it does mean... limits being exceeded imposes consequences...where failure modes occur. Russia only one case in point... making it clear that "failure occurring" there is not the same things as "what's been broken fixing itself". And, don't have to look far to find other examples... in multiple parallel spheres of interest... as that same calculus re stupidity eventually reaching limits in age and infirmity is ongoing now re Putin.. The latest coup rumors appear to have no evidentiary foundation beyond the obvious in western intel working at starting rumors. But, they weren't wrong about the invasion plans... and the "blood cancer" rumors this week... with other health issues obvious... have that candle clearly burning faster from both ends now... Still not seeing any real "advantages" emerging for anyone in any of it... as failure tends not to be self correcting rather than self propagating... it still requires its best if simply avoided... whether in relation to borders... politics... markets... Russia or Turkey.... or "others" failures. Rather than "obvious potential for improvement" in situation growing out of the current potential for larger failures occurring... I'd instead expect another ratchet or two occurring in the level of regional instability... given any "change" occurring... its likely to sustain, extend, and expand the "pieces coming apart" meme addressed in relation to global supply chains... which are also just "another instance" of the same thing... seen in separate context... that is not really "separate" at all... And, that likely applies universally about now... not just in the one or any specific instance ? The market analogy is a good one, perhaps... As the market crashes... it does not suddenly stop mid crash and self correct in a way that counters all the various aggregated forces driving it ? It will eventually find a new low... and may dither around at a bottom for some period of time... before a phoenix rises again from the ashes of prior error... But, "it's different this time"... includes that element in... "its not just one thing occurring outside the context of the others"... rather than... "all of these things are more or less the same thing"... And, then, of course... also have to consider the Building 7 sympathy collapse... /s