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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (187530)	5/14/2022 1:09:16 AM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By Pogeu Mahone Respond to of 217592

Note the ZH assumption always... is that the trade is decided by the options... that the path of least options resistance (as that is defined by what would be the fewest % / dollar winning trades... as the "most" wins always ends up being avoided)... is what MUST define the outcome ? But, you might assume... at some point... how people have placed their bets... can't be relied upon to accurately determine which horse actually won the race ? Otherwise, the gambling going on in this casino... is not quite what the gamblers are assuming it to be ? Occasionally, in reality, "the long shot" comes in for a win... which will make some few participants , including the track management. very happy... as a big payout for a few is good PR... while avoiding many smaller payouts avoids paying out in a much larger total volume ? The options "magic" school... appears to assume that either every long shot has to (be made to) win... or every race must be (made to be) won by the horse with the highest odds of a win... and the lowest percentage payout possible ? Perhaps I should give up stock trading... and spend more time at the track... where the odds of the race being fixed might be lower ? But, "the trade" itself... is thus what is being used to "spoof" investors... to focus them on "what the other traders are doing"... instead of what it might be more useful to consider... without such deliberate "self referential" focus on others choices... as "being the market" ? Sleights of hand... misdirection tricks... outright frauds... can make "markets" work more like street corner shell game operators than casinos...or the turf sports ? "The trend is your friend"... only if you've called it right... and it isn't lying to you ? Sports betting... is "winnable" for some... if they're willing to do the work to handicap the odds... and have figured out how to do that work better than others ? Markets appear to work, in part perhaps, like that... as a game of resolution and misdirection... the more intently you focus on some one factor... the more likely you will miss the tree for the density of the leaves looked at... or the forest for the density of the trees blocking the view... Keeping leaves, trees and forests in proper focus all at the same time... while timing participation to not bet against the trees in winter... and not bet on the leaves suddenly surging going into the fall... still misses that there are timber companies out there that work to clear cut forests... sometimes making it best just to stay out of the woods... or own the timber company... Learning curves... not all that hard to figure out... Just as reading a book on dance... can teach you all you need to know about dance... except how to dance. I'm still working on figuring out how to automate those parts of the process... in which I'm proven capable enough to understand... but less capable than a stupid machine in the doing... as, "consistently clumsy"... and too easily distracted... Although, markets... are the only dance I know in which the other partners all appear to prefer dancing with others who are more inept... rather than more skilled ? The market dance... pairs winners with losers... so not about gliding gracefully along with the other... as the winner is the one stepping on toes... not the one whose toes keep being stepped upon ? That defines some important bit of the culture of the market... as competitive toe stomping rather than dancing. And, the "tools" of the trade... as the rules of the trade... do seem they are all designed... by toe stoppers... with facilitation of particular bits of physical or social ineptness apparently intentionally designed into them ?