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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (8350)	2/9/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Sam, Apple needs to grow at 20% per year just to stay even at 3% share with the Wintels. If Apple grows at 50% per year for five years it will grow its share in the following way. Assume of 100 computers 97 are Wintels and 3 are Apple. 97 * 1.2 * 1.2 * 1.2 * 1.2 * 1.2 = 241 Wintels being made 3 * 1.5 * 1.5 * 1.5 * 1.5 * 1.5 = 22.8 Apples being made , or 9.5 % APple market share. As you can see catching a moving target is not easy. Apple has no hope of growing that share unaided. IBM started the Wintels and lost control of the market and now is a niche player. MSFT and Intel make a huge share of Wintel profits, and IBM near none. Apple went the other way and over controlled it's market. Apple needs a clone license scenario that streams profits back to Apple from CPU sales and OS sales in a manner proportional to system values, small enough to allow cloners to prosper, but not so small that they kill Apple(Apple has already done that) This would let a market emerge that had low costs cases, keyboards, power supplies, etc all made to a standard like the Wintels are, and a broad market would emerge. Apple would make some and profit from them. It would profit from the fees. There is now other way to catch up. Jobs plan will deliver Apple to Oracle within a year or so. Soon after that Oracle will fail, as it has a bad model as well. Bill