To: Duke who wrote (288 ) 2/9/1998 9:50:00 PM From: Duke Respond to of 947
Currency board not appropriate for Indonesia-Chase NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indonesian government, which has watched its currency plunge since July, would be poorly served by adopting a currency board, Chase Securities said in a research report. Jakarta has been studying the possibility of a currency board, which would peg the rupiah to a foreign currency at a specific exchange rate, but Chase analysts wrote this medicine would not fit Indonesia's ailments. ''It is not evident that the Indonesian economy would be best served by a rigidly pegged exchange rate,'' said Chase analysts Karen Parker and John Normand. ''This particular option would not be appropriate to Indonesia's circumstances and looks unlikely to be adopted.'' The rupiah followed a steady downward crawl against the U.S. dollar from 1987 to 1997, prompting steady growth of non-traditional Indonesian exports, the Chase report said. ''Without this flexibility, the adjustment of real wages and employment to terms of trade shocks would have been quite painful,'' Chase said. Indonesian authorities have actively managed the exchange rate over the past 30 years, and allowed periodic devaluations in 1978, 1983 and 1986. Indonesia, through currency realignment, managed to avoid a significant slowdown in growth during the mid-1980s amid a drop in oil prices, a rise in global interest rates and a weak dollar against the yen, the analysts said, noting that much of Indonesia's debt is denominated in yen, whereas oil prices are denominated in dollars. Chase pointed out that an adoption of a currency board would ''restrict'' the authorities' room for fiscal discipline. Many Indonesian banks would be be unable to bear the financial pressures accompanied by a rigid currency board, a fact ''that would be amply clear to market participants, undermining the credibility of such an arrangement at the outset,'' Chase said. The Chase analysts acknowledged that stabilizing the currency is the first step to help Indonesia's ailing banking system, but said a currency board was not the only means toward that end. ''A resolution of the current political uncertainty and steady implementation of the (International Monetary Fund's) adjustment program, as has been done in Thailand and South Korea, would go a long way toward restoring confidence,'' the Chase analysts added. In New York trading, the rupiah stood at about 9,500 against the U.S. dollar on Monday compared with around 2,400 rupiah in June last year, before the currency crisis erupted.