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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13940)	2/9/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 18056

Jeez Zeev, I was just making a shoot from the hip comment on general investment industry self promotion. They will keep coming up with this sort of stuff for ever and a day. But the dividend payment shift pattern does have at least the colour of a legit basis, although, I don't think it matters one damn bit at these levels; it is the new comfort blanket for those plowing fresh cash into USA equities. I suggested the the "overvaluation" test based on "punny" dividends, should be corrected for buy backs. The $4 Billions buy back (over the next 12 months) just announced by GM is nothing but a net 15% after tax dividends to GM stockholders (A bear market bottom rate of payment). Similar announcements since last October by IBM, MRK and I believe GE, really make the DOW, based on true after tax cash dividends, look quite cheap. I think I know what you mean to say, (recall we had this dividend discussion business over on AKSEF a year or so ago) but please take advantage of SI's new review screen and re-read, then you won't confuse the simple minded like me. -vbg- As for the near term, it is obvious that my turnips' forecast of breaking the 7600, is not going to happen soon. Yup, I think this is what I was driving at. Regards, DWW

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13940)	2/10/1998 5:32:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Zeev, Re: market or stock valuation, you said: the "overvaluation" test based on "punny" dividends, should be corrected for buy backs. The $4 Billions buy back (over the next 12 months) just announced by GM is nothing but a net 15% after tax dividends to GM stockholders (A bear market bottom rate of payment). Similar announcements since last October by IBM, MRK and I believe GE, really make the DOW, based on true after tax cash dividends, look quite cheap. I may be simple minded, but I fail to see how buying back one's stock in the market (with money which should be paid out as dividends) actually increases "value", as if the company were making better or more or cheaper products. It actually seems more like manipulation to me, that is, pumping up the price with a buy program. Isn't this what market manipulators did in the 1920s? Is it coincidental that the major executive option holders benefit the most with this manipulation? I know all the stockholders get a warm glow when they see the price rise, but don't you have to sell the stock to actually reap the reward? And what will happen when all the stockholders want to reap the harvest they have watched grow? Just some thoughts from a pre "new era" Neanderthal. Jack

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13940)	2/10/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

>>The $4 Billions buy back (over the next 12 months) just announced by GM is nothing but a net 15% after tax dividends<< Zeev, Dividends have to be paid. Stock buybacks do not have to happen. A dividend of say, $2.00 will always be $2.00. A share price of say $100, could be $80 next week. If GM's share price does not go up 15% I doubt shareholder's will feel like they got 15% aftertax. All risk being ignored in this market. Pete

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13940)	2/10/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Zeev ... Re "I am watching for a sign of a stalling market are INTC breaking back under 82, AMAT under 33, CSCO under 62." AMAT said that its btb will most likely be less than one until the 4th Q of this year,let's see if the market takes AMAT under 33. INTC and CSCO should be able to test those levels and still not break their bullchannels. As for the market stalling, we may have to wait until IRA liquidity and foreign inflows find a home ... a net increase in liquidity milling and rotating in the market. btw, are you on the sidelines in cash still?