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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (3776)	5/20/2022 1:16:39 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 5767

UVXY (black) continues to grossly under-perform... It "should" track roughly between the SPXS (red) )and the VXST (green)... But, recently it has under-performed the SPXS... And, currently... it is under-performing its recent under-performance.... apparently "anticipating" that markets must move higher from here... But, reality is... they might not... probably won't... if with viable quibbles about timing... fewer re trend ? And, then... if the market declines abruptly in parallel with a 2008 model... UVXY has "catching up" to do on the order of 30% to "get back to only matching the SPXS"... and 60% to "get back to where it should be"... in tracking against VIX short term... although, both of those assume a non-dynamic situation in any correction occurring upon "trend shifts"... The market is at cliff's edge again today... has now crossed below the "lower bound" many have posited in the 384 level on the SPY... putting it from "correction" into "bear market" territory... an actionable threshold for many it seems... and, yet... the UVXY remains... passive... range-bound... as if this is a low risk environment ? Very curious... that UVXY would occupy middle ground between SPXS and SPXL ? No rational explanation I see for that dislocation...

To: sense who wrote (3776)	5/20/2022 2:35:30 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 5767

SPY A bounce today at 1:30... mounted a re-test of the 384ish "support" level... but failed to rise back above that support line... converting it into resistance... and leaving a whole lot of nothing supporting this market... Prior chart support levels at 363 and 343 are likely not more than ephemeral in relation to the slope of the current decline versus that slow rise that made them... It appears there is still an excess of confidence that "the Fed won't let this happen"... when the Fed's policy seems, for now, that it is entirely based on requiring this to happen... as "the inflation in the asset bubble" is the only inflation battle they stand a chance of fighting and winning... The mantra is "don't fight the Fed" ? But, that assumes you are both paying attention to and understand what the Fed is saying ? For now, the market optimists "hope" is based on the expectation that the Fed is lying when they say they want to see asset prices... and stock prices in particular... moving lower. My opinion isn't a secret ? I think every bit of what they are doing at the Fed is inordinately foolish... but, knowing that its stupid... and thinking that means they won't do it... are two different things ? But... its really not all and only about the Fed... as all they can do is "try to manage" the situation they've been handed by the grifters and spenders in the Administration and in Congress. Being handed anothers check book to try to make balance... when it is persistently overdrawn... doesn't make the impossibility of the task the fault of the accounting team ? Not that the Fed deserves a pass... and they've encouraged the profligacy and have enabled the circumstance we have... as a means of seeking their own advantage... Where this ends... hard to say... "When" it is likely to end is perhaps a bit easier than "where" ? But, where it begins... in earnest ? That might not be all that hard...