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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (13941)	2/9/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Bonnie, You may not be aware that very long term historical "real, risk free" interest rates (so called risk free, but you sort of scratch your noggin when you look into the debtors) have been about 1/4 percent. Look at Ibbotson's collection going back several hundred years (and there are recorded figures, in a somewhat detailed manor, going back many, many hundred years in other sources). How, something may certainly have changed since the 70's, but is it for all time? I doubt it. The inflation scare premium is being veeeery sloooowly bled out of rates; loan/money demand is also less than robust, despite all the doom and gloom predictions about Asean demand. The mythical old mortgage rates of 4% are easy in a few years. Chew on that. Regards, DWW