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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawk who wrote (7292)	2/9/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 13594

>>Could we please get some bulls on this thread << yes we need the bulls to tell us where we went wrong! Vinik can you help us? Pancho

To: Hawk who wrote (7292)	2/10/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: Thomas P. Friend	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

>>I haven't seen any bulls on this thread since AOL was in the mid 30's. In fact its been mostly bears all the way up. The results speak for themselves. Could we please get some bulls on this thread <g> << Ok, watch the stock tank, now. A nervous bull here. Bought last week at 99 after seeing a strong 4 point run-up in the stock. I'm nervous, but holding. I had the stock last year, and followed this thread then (sold at 58!). Anyway, I saw that someone (once again) was asking what AOL has that these companies that put front end menus on internet content don't have. I own a small computer service business that caters to the home and small business user. My customers are mostly suburban residential customers, which is probably the profile of the majority of home computer users. My experiences with these people tell me that AOL will continue to be successful at growing its subscriber base for a while (whether they can make money doing it, I don't know, hence my nervousness, but the proof is in the chart). Four out of five of my customers do not understand the difference between AOL and an ISP. Of the four that do not understand, two of them will still not understand after I give them my best shot at explaining the difference. What they do know, however, is that if they put the disk they got in the mail into the computer, type "setup", enter their name, address, and credit card info, they have access to the internet in about 10 minutes. There is very little inertia to overcome. EVEN IF I EXPLAIN THE BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVES THAT GIVE THEM BETTER, MORE RELIABLE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, AND EVEN IF WHAT THEY DO MOSTLY IS ACCESS INTERNET INFORMATION, MOST OF MY CUSTOMERS STAY WITH AOL, BECAUSE IT IS EASY TO DO SO. Before you jump to the typical response, "it's easy to get an internet account and get set up," you need to take a step back. That response is simply not true. It is easy FOR YOU to get an internet account and get set up. It is orders of magnitude more complex than AOL for most users to get set up with an ISP (this, of course, is changing, but not all that quickly; furthermore, most people aren't aware of it, which brings us to the next point.) AOL HAS BUILD A BRAND AND A REPUTATION FOR BEING A COMPANY THAT CAN GET YOU ONLINE QUICKLY AND EASILY. And they really have done this. And for most people, this is enough. The minority for whom it is not enough go out and go through "the trouble" of signing up with an ISP. BUT THEY ARE THE MINORITY. One more important point. KIDS. At 3:00pm, the AOL online population swells. The kids are home from school. They get on and chat with each other. And they love it. And every year, there are more of them. And there is a lot of peer pressure among them to have it. MANY TIMES, THE DECISION TO STAY WITH AOL VERSUS SWITCHING TO AN ISP RESTS ON THESE CHILDRENS' REFUSAL TO GIVE IT UP. THE PARENTS USUALLY LOSE THIS BATTLE. So anyway, there are powerful forces that are pushing the AOL subscriber base higher. You short-selling conspiracy theorists that think the subscriber numbers are a scam need to take heed (I'm sure the ones that were here the last time I was around are broke and gone by now (one was buying long term puts at strike prices in the 20's, and ready to retire)). I know plenty of real subscribers that use AOL all the time. And I've watched the amount of access in my area increase, and the AOL population in my area increase with it. And if you don't think the under $1000 PC is increasing that trend, think again. So, here's some cheer for you bears. A (nervous) bull has spoken. When I last made these arguments, though, the stock was under 50. Maybe we've hit the top now, though. You think? Tom Friend