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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (188354)	6/3/2022 11:33:48 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217738

If true, the Russians will not shut in. They’ll be forced to find (1) the minimum amount of production required to keep the flow going and (2) a means of storing it. They may also allow some wells to go permanently off line, the less productive and inefficient ones, keeping the good ones flowing at minimum rates. And, assuming hostilities eventually end (they will), sanctions on Russian oil are likely to be lifted as part of a compromise. So, perhaps not as dire a problem as thought. Doesn’t seem insuperable. But who knows.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (188354)	6/4/2022 12:44:52 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217738

It sounds like the Russkies used a cheap/quick/dirty well design. This Alaskan article may be relevant... New Alaska regs require oil and gas wells anchor below permafrost alaskapublic.org June 20, 2018 Companies drilling oil and gas wells in Alaska will now have to dig deep enough to avoid problems stemming from thawing permafrost. Alaska’s Oil and Gas Conservation Commission announced a regulation change on June 19 that requires companies to set surface casings for wells below the base of the permafrost. The surface casing is basically a pipe that protects the well from outside contaminants and keeps the sides of the well from caving in. The change in regulation comes after a BP well failed last year, and leaked oil and gas on the North Slope. The company blamed the spill on a piece of the casing that buckled after thawing permafrost put uneven pressure on it. After that leak, and the revelation that the company had five other wells with similar designs in operation — state regulators called for a review of thousands of wells on the North Slope. Companies finished that review in January; they didn’t find any well designs that could lead to a similar accident. Cathy Foerster sits on the conservation commission. She said BP has already shut-in the wells that have the flawed design. So, she doesn’t think companies operating in Alaska will have to spend any money to comply with the new regulations. “Nobody is going to do anything differently than they’re already doing it,” Foerster said. “The regulation change was put in there for the new guys. When you come up here, if you’re going to drill a well, you have to drill it this way. The people who have been up here have learned that and they’re doing it. But, welcome to Alaska. Set it below the permafrost. ” The new regulation will go into effect on July 18.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (188354)	6/4/2022 11:02:59 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217738

Permafrost and wells being shut down, hopefully temporarily. It's all a matter of the individual well and its design. Unlike water pipes that can burst on freezing, because water expands as it goes into solid state, oil doesn't freeze and expand bursting pipes. But there are problems in cold. Some oil is really thick and gooey. In Venezuela for example, there's really tarry stuff which BP Oil International developed by pumping water and surfactant down the well to form Orimulsion [ask Google]. Orimulsion was about 30% water which formed the carrying medium for drops of gooey oil. It could be pumped straight into a ship, carted to a power station, and burned with the water in it for an energy loss of only 3% [due to evaporating the water]. Orimulsion was never turned into a mainline commercial product but by crikey it could now at $120 a barrel. I invented a method in 1986 for compressing and piping CO2 exhaust gas 400 metres under the ocean so that it wouldn't add to CO2 in air. I told a couple of visiting Mitsubishi engineers [with whom BP had a technology exchange agreement] and they patented it a couple of years later [but never used it]. A problem with Orimulsion was that if it froze in the pipes, that would be a big problem. Also, if the emulsion broke and it turned to tar in the pipe. The right surfactant in the right proportion, mixed right, at the right temperature was essential. For garden variety oil wells where it gets really cold, frozen oil in pipes would be a big problem if they were installed with the intention of never having thick gooey oil stop flowing. That might mean new wells would have to be drilled, or maybe hot stuff could be pumped into the pipes, or maybe a heating probe could be poked through the pipe to melt the goo. I have no idea how many wells might have what kind of problems if the flow stopped. I guess the problems would be not too bad or the engineers would ensure that such a flow stoppage wouldn't cause a major financial problem if flow stops. Interrupted flow in systems is normally expected and design is done so that it doesn't wreck everything. But I admit to gross ignorance about how many wells would have how much of a problem if flow is stopped for some time. Permafrost merely defines the water freezing zone and even if the ground isn't frozen, 10C might be too cold for flow to continue. I doubt the permanency of oil wells being stopped due to cold whether of permafrost or temporary cold. Keeping a pipeline's contents in liquid phase is not much of a technical challenge. If a well is wrecked, drill another parallel = no big problem. Meanwhile, Putin said that sales are booming and profits are extreme thanks to the $120 price which is a long way up from $10 a barrel and $20 a barrel during the covid panic and demand destruction. Mqurice