SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 7:39:59 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217571
 
In the meantime, a second front in the war is now full-on, per Bloomberg's take

bloomberg.com

The Dispute Over Forced Labor Is Redefining the Entire US-China Relationship

Even as Washington ramps up pressure over human rights abuses, Beijing is investing more in a labor program it sees as a form of charity.

6 June 2022, 06:01 GMT+8



Illustration: Isabel SeligerTo much of the world, the name “Xinjiang” has become synonymous with human-rights abuses after China’s push to assimilate mostly Muslim ethnic minority Uyghurs sparked an international outcry.

But as the US prepares to ban all goods from the remote western region later this month, President Xi Jinping is now moving to rebrand Xinjiang and better integrate it with the rest of China — and the globe.

The appointment of new Xinjiang chief Ma Xingrui — a rising star in the Communist Party who previously ran the tech hub Shenzhen — is emblematic of the shift. In January, the sharply dressed technocrat outlined his vision for Xinjiang, saying it was crucial to “accelerate the integration of urban and rural development” and “vigorously develop labor-intensive industries.” Farmers and herdsmen, he said, must be able to “achieve stable employment and sustained income growth.”

His remarks described the Xinjiang that China wants the world to see: A place where the Communist Party is striving to boost living standards for Uyghurs, in part by finding them jobs. A key component is investing more in a longstanding rural labor transfer program in which villagers spread across an area the size of Alaska are moved to cities, both in Xinjiang and elsewhere in China.



Ma Xingrui

Photographer: Edward Wong/South China Morning Post/Getty Images

To the US and others, however, Ma’s comments point to a darker reality: The expansion of a state-sponsored forced labor program under the guise of anti-poverty efforts that contributes to genocide. In their view, although some Uyghurs may want to leave their homes to work elsewhere, many others are too afraid to say no to a government that has separately been accused of incarcerating more than a million of them in recent years. Last month, the BBC published thousands of mugshots of detainees obtained from a hack of Xinjiang police files.

“In the Uyghur Region, refusing a government-sponsored labor program is not an option — that is what makes it forced labor,” said Laura Murphy, professor of human rights and contemporary slavery at UK-based Sheffield Hallam University. “This is not a social program.”

Now President Joe Biden is going even further in putting forced labor at the center of the overall US-China relationship, a move that is already starting to reshape global supply chains. Last month the US outlined plans to boost diplomatic pressure on China over what it called “ horrific abuses” in the region, adding that it would “fully leverage its authorities and resources to combat forced labor in Xinjiang” — including by lobbying other countries to implement strict measures.

Xinjiang Takes Center Stage
The region accounts for almost a sixth of China's land area



From June 21, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act will block imports from Xinjiang unless companies can prove they weren’t made with forced labor. The White House is also weighing unprecedented financial sanctions on Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., which makes surveillance systems, for linkages to alleged human-rights abuses by the Xinjiang government — a claim the company has repeatedly denied. That could open the door for similar penalties that could cut off other major Chinese companies from the global financial system.

That may just be the start. Since workers and goods from Xinjiang flow across the country, it’s nearly impossible to determine what products are made in the rest of China using what the US deems as forced labor — raising the prospect that the American import ban could eventually be extended to other regions. The Biden administration appears to have given up on trade talks and is now focused on reducing its dependence on China — a position that has bipartisan support in Washington, where both parties are increasingly skeptical of changing the Chinese Communist Party’s behavior through economic engagement.

“We’re breaking these economies apart if China continues this route,” said Sam Brownback, former U.S. ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom, adding that companies will need to pick sides. “You can’t stay in that system and be in ours too if they’re going to operate this way.”

“We’re breaking these economies apart if China continues this route.”


Businesses have already gotten caught in the middle. China last year endorsed a boycott against retailers like Sweden’s Hennes & Mauritz AB over statements opposing the use of forced labor in picking Xinjiang cotton. Groups like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Tech Transparency Project have highlighted dozens of well-known global companies they say benefited from Uyghur forced labor in supply chains, and Bloomberg News reported last year that Apple Inc. had severed ties with one supplier, Ofilm Group Co., over allegations it participated in the jobs transfer program.

After facing the boycott threats last year, H&M said it doesn’t take political positions, respects Chinese consumers and purchases cotton from “sustainable sources.” Ofilm hasn’t answered questions on its involvement in China’s labor transfer program, and didn’t respond to a request for comment.

China has repeatedly denied the forced labor allegations, calling them the “ lie of the century,” and in April ratified two International Labor Organization treaties dealing with the practice. Still, Xi’s government makes it difficult for foreigners to inspect factories and closely monitors any journalists who visit the region, making it near impossible to verify those claims.

Xinjiang accounts for less than 2% of China’s population but nearly a sixth of its total land area. Ethnic minorities make up a majority in the region, dominated by Turkic-speaking Uyghurs who have long warned their culture faced threats from ethnic Han who comprise more than 90% of China’s 1.4 billion people — including Xi and all top Communist Party leaders.

In 2014, a spike in Uyghur-perpetrated violence mainly against Han Chinese prompted Xi to order authorities to “strike first” against terrorists. That led to the creation of an elaborate system of detention centers to indoctrinate minorities with Communist Party ideology while teaching them some work and language skills.

After the scale of the camps became known, China said in late 2019 that everyone had “graduated” and the “vocational education and training centers” were closed. But the separate longstanding efforts to assimilate Uyghurs through anti-poverty jobs programs never stopped — and that’s where the debate starts over whether China’s policies amount to forced labor, which the ILO defines as “all work or service which is exacted from any person under the threat of a penalty and for which the person has not offered himself or herself voluntarily.”

Unlike in other countries the US has accused of forced labor, the allegations against China are related to government programs seen as charitable within the country. In one example, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., a global leader in wind-turbine manufacturing, said in a 2020 report that it helped with the government’s labor transfer program to eliminate poverty.

“The problem’s becomingmore pervasive.”


Then last year, the company released a “commitment letter” saying it has respected human rights for more than 20 years and “strictly prohibits any form of child or forced labor.” When contacted for comment, Goldwind reiterated that those practices are barred, along with bonded labor and the trafficking of persons, “throughout company operations and within our global supply chain.”

The US says the worker transfers are facilitated by a “ mutual pairing program” in which governments and enterprises employ workers either in factories built in Xinjiang or by hiring them to work at plants in other provinces. And the number of Uyghurs being moved away from villages is steadily growing.

Adrian Zenz, who has conducted extensive research on Xinjiang, released a new study using official data to show that a record 3.2 million transfers of so-called surplus workers were made in 2021. That’s 15.4% more than originally planned, he noted, adding that it’s possible that some people were transferred more than one time.

While authorities haven’t published recent data on how many workers are transferred from Xinjiang to other parts of the country, in 2020 the government said a total of 117,000 had been sent out of the region since 2014. China doesn’t provide a breakdown of where the Xinjiang workers end up, raising questions about the extent to which they are already embedded in factories all throughout the country that export goods to the world.

What’s more, Zenz’s latest study found that official documents including the Xinjiang Five-Year Plan through 2025 show the labor transfer program is set to expand over the next few years. Key goals include “dynamic clearing” of zero-employment families in urban areas and a mandate for “every single person who is able to work to realize employment.” The language marks an expansion from previous plans that referred to “every able-bodied person,” suggesting that even mothers and other caretakers could be forced to work, he said.

“The problem’s becoming more pervasive,” said Zenz, a senior fellow in China Studies at the Washington-based Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.



Illustration: Isabel Seliger

The rural jobs transfer program has its roots in China’s hukou system, which restricted the movements of citizens into cities. In the late 1970s, leader Deng Xiaoping started opening the country to investment and made it easier for workers to move around. Even so, by the turn of the century the number of surplus rural laborers was still estimated at some 100-200 million people.

In 2002, the Communist Party decided to remove all movement restrictions, so long as population flows were “orderly” and “guided.” The Agriculture Ministry then urged local governments to boost vocational training for rural workers and link them with job opportunities in cities. Ever since the program has been hailed an important national tool for ending poverty.

In Xinjiang, however, the initiative took on an added political dimension following Xi’s crackdown on Uyghurs. According to the Xinjiang Papers, a collection of more than 400 internal Chinese documents leaked to the New York Times, Xi in 2014 called for ethnic groups to be put to work, arguing that large numbers of unemployed people would “provoke trouble” and integration with Han Chinese would help them “resist religious extremist thinking.”

“People without land, employment or a fixed income have nothing to do and wander around all day,” Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying in one document. “Not only will this breed dissatisfaction, but they will also be easily exploited by evildoers.”

The government then devised a strategy to put Uyghurs to work, both through canvassing villages directly and creating incentives for companies to hire them.

It took a while for those efforts to pay off. A 2019 study, co-authored by a vice dean at a branch of the Communist Party school in Xinjiang, detailed the struggles local officials faced in recruiting workers.

In some cases, the party assigned quotas for local officials to fill jobs and made those a key part of performance reviews, according to the study, which was published in a magazine run by the local branch of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in the central province of Shaanxi. Officials also required low-income households to participate in order to continue receiving government subsidies, it said, and offered extra cash to those who signed up.

The party also drew upon a strategy known as “fanghuiju,” shorthand for a slogan that translates as “Visit the People, Benefit the People, and Get Together the Hearts of the People.” Workers went door to door in impoverished villages, often armed with handbooks that instructed them how to influence parents through their children and deflect uncomfortable questions.

While some Uyghurs are allowed to choose their jobs, the threat of detention is often sufficient to secure cooperation, said Rune Steenberg, a postdoctoral researcher at Palacky University Olomouc in the Czech Republic, who conducted anthropological fieldwork in Xinjiang between 2010 and 2016.

“If they don’t adapt to the party line and do everything the party asks them, then they’re in immediate danger of becoming branded as uncooperative,” he said. “And that can mean incarceration for you and your family.”

Companies also received perks for using Uyghur labor, including cheap land and favorable treatment from government officials. Soon local agencies started advertising openings and even holding job fairs.

“The advantages of Xinjiang workers are semi-military style management, can withstand hardships,” said one advertisement uncovered by ASPI that offered 1,000 Uyghur workers aged 16 to 18 years. “Minimum order 100 workers!”

Once deployed, workers are accompanied by both a local party member and a police officer who ensures the management feels safe, according to Darren Byler, who has written books on Xinjiang and teaches anthropology at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. They are also separated from their families for months, he added.

“Workers that are sent to other parts of China are seen as the least politically sensitive,” Byler said. “You begin to see the way that life is circumscribed and controlled by the factory and the police and the government — that they’re not permitted to practice Islam, that they’re required to study Chinese and political thought at night. That they’re living in really unfree conditions.”

World’s Biggest Cotton GrowersThe top five producing countries, in thousands of 480-pound bales

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture



China’s government rejects those allegations, and regularly holds press briefings featuring Uyghurs who say they are free to do what they please. One of them, Memettiryimu Nansertin, said he made more than 4,000 yuan ($600) a month — at least five times what farmers make in his home county — working for an appliance company in eastern Zhejiang province that provided air-conditioned dormitory rooms and a halal restaurant.

“Some foreign people say we are forced to work and we are monitored beyond Xinjiang, which is sheer nonsense,” he said. “It is our freedom to work everywhere in our country.”

Ma, the new Xinjiang chief, wants to expand connections like this even further. In his last job as governor of Guangdong, he earned the admiration of foreign business executives for pushing through bureaucratic hurdles. He’ll almost certainly be elevated to the Communist Party’s 25-member Politburo later this year.

“I myself witnessed how he has been hands-on in getting big investment into Guangdong — and then not only getting the investment in, but actually followed it through,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. “He wants stuff to succeed, and that’s what the president wants.”

In April, Ma said the system of pairing Xinjiang with assistance around China remained a “major political undertaking.” He also hosted delegations from the coastal provinces of Fujian and Guangdong, encouraging investments in Xinjiang and linkages to the Greater Bay Area — a region that includes both Hong Kong and neighboring Shenzhen.

At the same time, Ma has emphasized the need to “deepen deradicalization work.” The government should do all it can to “educate and rescue people who are deluded by extreme thoughts,” he wrote in an April article in the Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily.

The transfer labor policy is a big part of that effort. Xu Guixiang, a Xinjiang government spokesman, told reporters in April there would be more such programs in the future, saying they worked “very well” and “achieved what we have expected.”

“When they come back from the big cities to their villages, they changed their minds and their ideas,” he said, referring to participants in the labor program.

It’s that sort of rhetoric that critics point to as evidence of coerced indoctrination, fueling concern in the US and increasingly elsewhere around the globe. In February, an ILO report by a committee of experts called on China to review its policies to ensure equality of opportunity and end links between vocational training and political reeducation.

The trip to China last month by Michelle Bachelet, the first United Nations human rights chief to visit since 2005, underscored the divide: As the US criticized her for agreeing to visit Xinjiang without “free and full access,” the Foreign Ministry in Beijing listed forced labor among a range of accusations it said showed the US’s “obsession with encircling and containing China.”

“The views of the two parties are far apart and unlikely to be bridged in the foreseeable future,” He Weiwen, a former commercial counselor at Chinese diplomatic missions in New York and San Francisco, said of the forced-labor allegations. “It will become an important factor affecting bilateral economic ties for years to come.”

— With assistance by Colum Murphy



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 7:42:34 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Secret_Agent_Man

  Respond to of 217571
 
Unrelated to anything and connected to everything, by way of the FED mandates

Perhaps GetMoreGold is advisable

zerohedge.com

Inflation Will Price Many Americans Out Of Housing And Into Homelessness

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of the most detrimental aspects of an inflationary or stagflationary crisis is that, in most cases, housing costs tend to rise while home sales fall.

It might seem counterintuitive; one would assume that as sales fall so should prices, but this is the upside-down world of inflation. Certain commodities and products, usually necessities, almost always skyrocket in price, ultimately driving most American families out of the market completely.

One of the only exceptions to this rule is when the government institutes rent or price controls. In Weimar Germany, for example, the government enforced strict regulatory controls on landlords, fixing rent at a rate that made profits impossible.

[url=][/url]


Biden’s housing crisis


Now, this might sound familiar – during the height of the Covid pandemic the Biden administration established a lengthy moratorium on evictions, which made it impossible for many property owners to collect rent payments they were owed. Owners couldn’t replace delinquent tenants with those willing to pay on time, leading to massive financial burden on property owners across America.

The effects of this were detrimental to both the U.S. economy and especially the rental market.

How? The moratorium awakened property owners to the reality that they could be unilaterally restricted from their own business. They could be stopped from collecting rent payments owed by tenants under contract while still being forced to pay taxes and maintenance expenses on those same properties.

The entire rental market became a zero-sum game. In response, landlords began selling their extra properties in droves instead of renting them out.

As you might expect, this has led to a shortage of rentals in many parts of the country. When supply is constrained, what does basic economics tell us must happen? The eviction moratorium led directly to much higher prices on the limited rentals that still remain.

But it wasn’t just a reduction in supply that caused prices to rise.

Those owners still willing to rent properties under the eviction moratorium had to increase their prices to compensate them for the additional risks they were taking in a market where the rules suddenly changed. By placing the moratorium on rent, Biden made an existing housing crisis far worse.

Who benefits from this manufactured crisis?


Another factor to consider is this: who were the buyers for many of these suddenly-for-sale properties?

Massive conglomerates like Blackstone and Blackrock have been increasingly involved in the housing market since the crash of 2008.

While Blackrock claims it has no involvement with the single-family housing market, it works closely with companies that are involved, buying up multiple houses and bundles of distressed mortgages.

Blackstone has continued to buy houses in bulk for the past decade, removing properties from the market for a time. These mass purchases give the public the impression that local sales are “hot” and that the market is thriving. As you might expect, these actions force prices up even further to meet this artificial demand.

Currently, median sale prices of homes have spiked dramatically to all-time highs in the span of a couple years – a 30% price surge coinciding with the beginning of the Covid panic.

Now, part of the price inflation can be attributed to the large migration of Americans out of blue states to escape draconian Covid lockdowns and high taxes, but this migration has now died off. Housing sales are plummeting back to Earth. Yet, prices remain higher than the average family can afford.

Housing Inflation Is far Outpacing WagesIn 2022, the median cost of a home in the US is now $428,000. The average American makes around $50,000 a year or less, placing them far outside the current market.

In terms of rentals, the average cost in the US has exploded to $1300 per month for people that stay anchored to a location, and $1900 per month for people that relocate. This average is of course partially pushed up by the ridiculously high prices in major coastal cities like San Francisco (up 22% year over year), Los Angeles (up 297% since January 2000) and New York (up 159% house price inflation since January 2000).

An individual today must make at least $20 an hour to afford a single bedroom apartment. Consider that over 30% of Americans are paid less than $15 an hour (before taxes).

Nearly half of the American population doesn’t make enough money to maintain a one bedroom rental. The vast majority of Americans will find it impossible to buy a home at today’s prices.

On average, an annual salary of $105,000 is recommended before taking on a mortgage for a $350,000 house. And keep in mind, as the inflation crisis accelerates the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates – which pushes up mortgage costs. So where does this leave us? It only gets worse from here.

What comes next?


Home buyers waiting for prices to track lower along with sales may find they are waiting around for a while. This could change IF the government enforces price controls on home costs. Granted, that is highly unlikely.

I think it’s more likely that, as inflation rises, the government would freeze monthly rents, but not home prices themselves.

That said, if there was another moratorium on evictions, or a freeze on rents, then landlords would probably sell off their properties en masse once again to avoid taxes and expenses on investments that are making them no money. That could lead to a larger drop in prices, but again, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

One solution to the housing problem would be a moratorium on corporate purchases of homes. That would limit hedge funds and investment banks to speculating on industrial and retail properties.

Personally, I’m not a fan of the government insinuating itself into business, but maybe it is better to stop conglomerates from buying up American homes and driving up prices than it is to stop landlords from collecting rent? We also have to consider the very real possibility that global corporations devouring the U.S. housing market is part of a calculated agenda to make housing expensive.

Price explosions caused by inflation like we are seeing today often last for many years, sometimes a decade or more. When housing finally does deflate, it will only be under drastic economic instability. By that time, people will have much bigger concerns beyond whether they can take on a mortgage. (Note: Birch Gold has reported extensively on the latest housing bubble, and the forces behind it.)

Property rights and ownership are a primary pillar supporting a free society. When ownership is relegated to the upper-middle class and the wealthy the result is an inevitable social decline into various forms of feudalism or socialism.

For those with authoritarian ambitions, housing inflation is a boon. Homelessness feeds the kind of desperation that drives the public to support totalitarian actions. They might provide you with housing eventually, but it will be at a terrible cost.

The last thing anyone with common sense would want is for the government to become their landlord by default. It’s very hard to defy the trespasses of government overreach when that government controls the roof over your head.

* * *

After 14 long years of ultra-loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it’s no secret that inflation is primed to soar. If your IRA or 401(k) is exposed to this threat, it’s critical to act now! That’s why thousands of Americans are moving their retirement into a Gold IRA. Learn how you can too with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals the little-known IRS Tax Law to move your IRA or 401(k) into gold. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 7:45:49 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217571
 
Again, unrelated and connected

bloomberg.com

Lifting Tariffs on Goods May Make Sense, US Commerce Chief Says

Raimondo says president open to ideas that will tame inflation

Some steel, aluminum duties to stay to protect US workers

Ana Monteiro5 June 2022, 23:04 GMT+8
President Joe Biden’s commerce chief said it “may make sense” to lift tariffs on some goods as a way to tame the hottest inflation in almost four decades.

“Steel and aluminum -- we’ve decided to keep some of those tariffs because we need to protect American workers and we need to protect our steel industry; it’s a matter of national security,” Gina Raimondo said in an interview Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “There are other products -- household goods, bicycles -- it may make sense,” she said, when asked if the administration would consider ending duties on billions of dollars of imports from China.



Gina Raimondo

Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/The New York Times/Bloomberg

“I know the president is looking at that,” Raimondo said. “Anyone who brings him a good idea that he thinks will help American families, he’s open to doing it.”

Biden’s team is weighing what to do with former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on about $300 billion of goods imported from the US economy’s biggest rival. While some businesses have benefited from the tariffs protecting them from Chinese import competition, companies that use the goods as inputs in areas including manufacturing have been hurt.

The U.S.-China TariffsTariffs, by percentage rate, imposed by the U.S. and China on each other since March 2018

Sources: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Bloomberg

Note: Dec. 13 reference in Sept. 2019 box is for same year



Senior administration officials’ views on what to do with the duties differ: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in April suggested the US is open to roll them back to help tame price growth, while US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has highlighted the leverage that the duties provide at the negotiating table with China.

Read more:
US Must Be ‘Strategic’ on China Tariffs, Trade Chief Says
US’s China-Tariff Review Likely to Take Months, Aide Says
US-EU Trade, Techology Disputes Persist Despite Unity on Russia


March research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that eliminating a wide array of tariffs, including those on Chinese goods, could reduce the inflation rate by 1.3 percentage points.

Trump imposed tariffs after an investigation concluded China stole intellectual property from American companies and forced them to transfer technology. China then responded with its own taxes on imports.

The former president also instituted duties on steel and aluminum imports from Europe, Asia and many other nations in 2018, citing risks to national security. While a truce has since been reached with the European Union, Japan and United Kingdom, the US has refused to remove EU steel and aluminum from the list of products considered a threat to its national security.

Last year, Raimondo said Trump’s 25% duty on steel imports and 10% on inward-bound shipments of aluminum have been effective. Steel producers want the duties preserved, but manufacturers have called on Biden to end them, saying they have hurt family-owned businesses and fractured relationships with trading partners from Mexico and Canada to the EU and Japan.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 7:52:27 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217571
 
By the Bloomberg Reports, am getting the feeling that CCP China China China is intent on cracking down on Chinese islamism by ways of making the Muslims richer, a different approach, unless millions are locked up, which is also different than crackdowns elsewhere on the planet

am agnostic but very curious to find out whether any of the approaches work, say in Iran, Iraq, Syria, parts of Europe, Paris, Berlin, London, Lebanon, ... India, and Gaza, as opposed to Sinkiang

bloomberg.com

Inside Xinjiang: A 10-Day Tour of China’s Most Repressed State

Xi’s economic ambitions drive the anti-Muslim crackdown in Xinjiang.

Peter Martin
25 January 2019, 04:00 GMT+8



A security officer keeps watch as women perform a traditional dance at the main bazaar of Xinjiang’s regional capital, Urumqi, in November.

Source: Bloomberg

Twice a day, employees at an upscale jewelry boutique in China’s remote western region of Xinjiang stop what they’re doing and don bulletproof vests and combat helmets. Thrusting long clubs, they practice defending the store against attackers. Their imaginary assailants aren’t jewel thieves—they’re Muslim terrorists.

The state-mandated drills are part of China’s suppression campaign against Uighurs, predominately Muslim ethnic groups whose members have periodically lashed out with riots, stabbings and other attacks in protest of a government controlled by the Han Chinese majority. China has responded by installing a pervasive surveillance system in cities across Xinjiang and locking up as many as 1 million Uighurs—almost 10 percent of their regional population—in mass detention camps.



This detention center in Hotan was identified using satellite coordinates. The United Nations has described as credible estimates that as many as 1 million Uighurs are being held in such camps. Local officials said it was a high school.

Source: Peter Martin/Bloomberg

The Xinjiang crackdown has drawn condemnation from human rights groups and calls for sanctions from U.S. lawmakers, who reject China’s claims that the camps are voluntary education centers that help purge “ideological diseases.”

“It is like if you have a child who misbehaves,” said Du Xuemei, a supporter of the camps and the spokeswoman for Yema Group, a trading company that operates the jewelry boutique. “The parents need to teach it right from wrong.”

But China’s severe actions in Xinjiang are about more than forcing ethnic minorities into line, as I saw on a recent trip to five cities in the region.

Far-flung Xinjiang is critically important to President Xi Jinping’s loftiest goal: completing China’s return as one of the world’s great powers. Although it represents just 1.5 percent of China’s population and 1.3 percent of its economy, Xinjiang sits at the geographic heart of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative. It’s a trillion-dollar plan to finance new highways, ports and other modern infrastructure projects in developing countries that will connect them to China’s markets—and, skeptics say, put them in China’s debt for decades to come.

The government has spent vast sums building up cities in Xinjiang to attract companies and fuel growth in the relatively poor region. Concerns about lawlessness in Xinjiang could chill investment. China's campaign against the Uighurs is aimed in part at reassuring wary investors that Xinjiang is a safe place to live and work.

The Alaska-sized region borders eight countries and serves as a crossroads for a railway link to London and a route to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan, where China is financing a $62 billion port and transportation corridor.

But while Xi builds Xinjiang into a platform to project global influence, he risks undercutting his efforts to present China as a defender of free markets and international rules. Already, the surveillance tactics used in Xinjiang are spreading throughout China. Facial-recognition cameras, internet monitoring and experiments with so-called social credit systems to grade citizens based on behavior are becoming commonplace. And they are not just targeted at Muslims, but at anyone who threatens the Communist Party’s hold on power or is perceived to stand in the way of China’s geopolitical goals.

China’s Belt and RoadModern-day Silk Road aims to revive and extend the ancient routes

Sources: Belt and Road Portal, China’s National Development and Reform Commission

Western politicians and economists long-predicted that once China opened its markets, its society would inevitably open up, too. As China digs in for a protracted trade war with the United States that’s as much about competing worldviews as steel and soybeans, he appears out to prove them wrong. If anything, China under Xi is becoming less free even as he preaches openness abroad.

That has ramifications for investors concerned about their own reputational risk. It also poses a broader challenge to the West as China holds out its centralized model of government as a viable alternative to Western-style democracy. For the leaders of some poorer countries weighing different paths to development, a top-down system may be appealing—especially if it comes with cash to finance high-cost roads, bridges and power plants.

“I see what’s happening in Xinjiang not as a local phenomenon, but as a symptom of the larger system that holds in China now under Xi,” said Rian Thum, a senior research fellow at the University of Nottingham who wrote a book about Uighurs. “It shows that Xi’s Communist Party is an organization that’s willing to go to greater extremes of repression than I think any outside observer expected.”

So far the police state in Xinjiang doesn’t appear to be reassuring investors, even as tourism picks up and a rush of government spending lures workers in search of well-paying jobs. Almost no foreign companies have located there and the region’s economy slowed last year. China sees that as a temporary setback. But as the Xinjiang campaign continues to draw unwelcome scrutiny, it is focusing attention not only on China’s treatment of Muslims but Xi’s vision for the nation’s future.









Xi Jinping's image is unavoidable in Xinjiang, as are the police patrols. Modern buildings and businesses sit alongside mom and pop street vendors.

Source: Bloomberg

Crossing into Xinjiang from neighboring Gansu province, a deep divide soon becomes clear between Uighurs and the Han, who comprise more than 90 percent of the country’s 1.4 billion people, including Xi and almost all the party’s top leadership. Many Han have little interaction with the Turkic-speaking minority, and receive a steady stream of government news painting them as unsophisticated and susceptible to extremist ideas.

Ten Days in XinjiangExploring the police state at the heart of Xi Jinping's Belt and Road initiative

Source: Bloomberg

On an overnight train into the city of Urumqi, a retired People’s Liberation Army soldier with the surname Cai told me he had no sympathy for Uighurs in the once “desolate, backward and poor” region. He thinks they should be thankful for all China has done for them.

“We have built roads for them, homes for them, given them schools,” said Cai, 69. “Some people lack any sense of gratitude to the country and the party.”

Read more: China Tests Facial-Recognition Fence in Muslim-Heavy Area

Many Uighurs have long resented the influx of Han into Xinjiang; some Uighurs consider the region an independent nation called East Turkestan. Beijing, in turn, has feared Xinjiang could peel away the same way the neighboring Central Asian republics abandoned Moscow as the Soviet Union collapsed.

China’s crackdown on the region began after a series of Uighur attacks on civilians starting in 2013, including a flaming car attack in the heart of Beijing: Tiananmen Square. The escalation alarmed authorities who had repeatedly attempted to pacify Xinjiang, most recently after 2009 riots in Urumqi killed some 200 people, mostly Han.



People inspect a burned vehicle after days of rioting by Uighurs in Urumqi in 2009. The uprising killed almost 200 people and raised concerns about how China treats its ethnic minorities.

Photographer: Peter ParksAFP/Getty Images

“The government decided that openness wasn’t working,” said Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, whose research focuses on counter-terrorism as well as China’s relations with its Western neighbors. “A massive heavy hand came crashing down on the region.”

Almost all Han I spoke to in Xinjiang shared Cai’s view of the Uighurs as disloyal. They said they approved of Xi’s efforts to modernize the region, painting an optimistic picture of economic opportunities on a pacified frontier—though it was often difficult to tell whether they were truly speaking their minds, or repeating the official Communist Party line.

By contrast, most Uighurs appeared too scared to say anything, They engaged in hushed and cryptic conversations, insisting all was fine and abruptly walking away. Two Uighurs eating lamb and radishes in a restaurant just outside Xinjiang had warned it would be hard to get anyone to talk. Many of their neighbors back home had disappeared to “study,” one said.









Cameras watch over ancient forts; a Muslim man prays at a train station in Jiayuguan in Gansu province, just outside Xinjiang; Communist kitsch displayed at Yema Group's Urumqi headquarters; a tourist poses for a photo with a Uighur.

Source: Bloomberg

Uighurs have reason to be paranoid. The police presence designed to track them is anything but subtle. Always, there is the fear of being taken away.

Police question them on the street, demanding to know where they’re going and why. Metal detectors, facial scanners and document checks are routine. Surveillance cameras are everywhere, even in some public restrooms. In one Uighur mosque, I counted 40 of them.

The mosques themselves were sparsely attended and I never heard a call to prayer in Xinjiang. Over time, authorities have banned “abnormal beards,” religious names for children, fasting during Ramadan and attending lavish weddings—part of a broader effort to assert control over all religions, including Christianity.

Read more: China Takes Diplomats to Tour Xinjiang ‘Re-Education Camps’

As I was riding in a packed third-class train car to Hotan, a former oasis town that once connected China to India, Uighur passengers fell silent and lowered their heads as a police officer walked in. Parents shushed their children.

Soon, a dozen more men wearing blue train conductor suits and red armbands clambered in, pulling bags from the overhead racks and shouting commands.

“Take this down!” “Open it!” “What’s this?” They took a young Uighur girl into the next car for questioning. A child started crying.

When we arrived in Hotan, I approached a Uighur man and told him what had happened.

“That’s what it’s been like every day for three years,” he said cautiously. Some of his family members had been sent to the Muslim camps, he added, where they spend all day studying Chinese law.

Foreign news outlets and non-profit organizations have detailed physical and psychological abuse inside the camps, with the Associated Press reporting that Uighurs were forced to disavow their Islamic beliefs, praise the party and endure solitary confinement. Former detainees told Human Rights Watch they were jailed without hearings, shackled and beaten.

“People go for two years minimum, and many for three years,” the Uighur man told me. “The first one or two years you can take it, but after that, you can’t.”









Today, ancient Kashgar is a city in lockdown. In Urumqi, cameras, personnel and metal detectors at the entrance to the main bazaar; shop employees, many Uighur, wield clubs during a drill to practice defending themselves against Uighur attacks.

Source: Bloomberg

Officially, Xinjiang is just as open as most other parts of China. Yet as I arrived in Khorgas, a city established in 2014 on the border with Kazakhstan, four police officers with body armor and rifles ordered me from the car. One instructed me to kneel on the ground and empty my bag. He pointed a laser at things he wanted to inspect more closely.

A man in a black jacket joined the uniformed policemen. He introduced himself as “Mr. Li, a local businessman.” But his ID card said he was Mr. Wang, of the Public Security Department

“We knew you were coming,” he said pleasantly.

Wang took my phone and erased photos and files, something that happened repeatedly during my time in Xinjiang. “I am deleting these for your own good,” he said, before handing it to a colleague who took down the phone’s identifier number, presumably to track my location.

Wang and two propaganda officials were my constant companions. They pointed out construction sites and exhibitions hailing Xi’s accomplishments, including a display titled “My Country Is Awesome.” Wang encouraged me to take pictures, but only of “positive things.”

Read more: The Architect of China’s Muslim Camps Is a Rising Star Under Xi

At one restaurant a waitress wore body armor, though it was unclear why: there is little visible crime in Khorgas. Police stations with flashing lights dotted the road and a near-constant whir of sirens filled the air.

At the end of my time in Khorgas, Wang bid me farewell. “You are welcome back anytime,” he said. “As soon as you arrive, I’ll appear.”

In Kashgar, another former Silk Road oasis, the full gamut of Xinjiang’s security state was on display. Police patrolled the streets in teams of three, wielding shields and pointed black sticks. Soldiers marched with automatic weapons and sheathed bayonets.

Wittingly or not, Han civilians play a part in the government’s efforts to stoke fears that a Uighur attack could happen at any moment. Groups of shopkeepers all around the city performed drills with wooden clubs. Knives were chained to the tables in butcher shops, and storefronts were barricaded at night.

At times, the surveillance was excessive to the point of absurdity. Seven security officers were assigned to shadow me in Kashgar. When I asked a local police officer why such a large group was required, he denied the men were there at all.

“You’re hallucinating,” he said.









Khorgas, a key Belt and Road hub, strives to attract global business by selling itself in a promotional exhibit as a dazzling, safe city. Nearby, a waitress wearing body armor complicates that message. So do scenes in Kashgar, where carpenters work with chained-down tools and painters capture landscapes cluttered with cameras.

Source: Bloomberg

Across Xinjiang, the fear of saying something wrong hung over every conversation, even with the Han. It was impossible to know who was telling the truth.

One afternoon in Hotan, when the police didn’t seem to be following me, I ventured into a coffee shop. A young Han woman came charging toward me through the metal detector at the entrance. When she saw I was a foreigner she burst into nervous laughter

“You scared me to death!” she said. “I thought it was the police inspecting our security arrangements—and our guard isn’t here.” If it had been the police, “we’d all have to go for a study session on security in the community.”

Conditions like this would drive businesses and people away from any Western city. In Xinjiang, the police presence is a selling point and source of pride for some newly arrived Han.

While it’s unclear how many Han migrants have moved to Xinjiang—the most recent annual statistics available, from 2016, showed a decline in the Han population—the number of visitors is rising. The state-run China Daily reported that Xinjiang attracted more than 105 million tourists in the first eight months of 2018, almost as much as in all of 2017.

A Han man named Tian, who traveled to Xinjiang from Shanghai with his girlfriend, said he wouldn’t have imagined vacationing in the region until recently.

“Look around, there are police everywhere,” he said while watching Uighurs wrestle on stage in a bazaar. “It’s true it’s a little inconvenient but there’s a guarantee of our safety. The terrorists and bad people have nowhere to hide.”



Chinese paramilitary troops attend an anti-terrorism oath-taking rally in Hotan in 2017. These specialized troops oversee regular police, and are now a fixture in Xinjiang.

Source: STR/AFP/Getty Images

Xinjiang’s cities can’t hire police quickly enough. Official statistics show that regional government spending on public security nearly doubled in 2017. From August 2016 to July 2017 more than 90,000 security-related jobs were advertised, according to research published by the Jamestown Foundation. Xinjiang accounted for 21 percent of all criminal arrests in China in 2017.

Many Han had stories about recently graduated friends who headed west to find work. In Hotan, I met a 67-year-old woman named Lu who moved from Gansu province a decade ago in search of a better life. Now her sons operate two liquor stores.

“When we first came here, the Uighurs would tell us, ‘This is our place, we don’t want you Han here,’” she said. Now that’s changed, and she credits Xi.

“I really like him,” she said. “There are a lot more Han now and it’s very safe.”

It’s not at all clear, however, whether the huge public investment and police presence are spurring the economic miracle China envisions for the region.

Xinjiang’s economic growth slowed to 5.3 percent in the third quarter of last year, compared with 7.6 percent during the same period in the previous year, according to government data. Growth has been propped up by fixed-asset investment, which increased 20 percent in 2017 and was set to rise again thanks to a new rush of government spending.

Companies are not flocking to the region. Foreign direct investment into Xinjiang fell more than 40 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2016, according to the most recent release from the local statistics office. That year FDI amounted to 0.4 percent of Xinjiang's economy, about a third the rate of the national average.

QuickTake: China’s ‘Project of the Century,’ the Belt and Road Initiative

“It’s one of the main tensions in the Belt and Road as a concept,” said Jonathan Hillman, a former U.S. trade official who heads the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Reconnecting Asia project. “If you want to be promoting the movement of goods and people and data, having an overwhelming security presence is at odds with that. You need to be willing to give up some control.”

There is little evidence that Xi intends to do that. Some of the methods now used in Xinjiang are spreading to other Chinese cities. An anti-terrorism task force from the former British colony of Hong Kong recently visited Xinjiang to study local security initiatives, the South China Morning Post reported. The neighboring area of Ningxia also signed a cooperation agreement to learn from the region’s efforts to fight terrorism and promote "social stability."

Some Uighurs were finding it easier to join with the Communist Party than to resist: Perhaps half of the shadowy men and propaganda officials who followed me during various parts of my trip were Uighur.



Plainclothes and uniformed security officers mingle among tourists at Kashgar’s daily city gate opening.

Source: Bloomberg

On my last night before heading back to Beijing, I met a Uighur couple who personified the anguish many face between retaining their local identity and succeeding in Xi’s China.

It was a rare moment when I had no visible minders, and we spoke over cigarettes and warm beer. Although both worked for Chinese state-owned enterprises, they were subject to the same threat of heading to the camps as other Uighurs.

“All Uighurs are scared that if we do anything we will get in trouble,” the man said. At the same time, he defended Xi’s government: “If you think about it, those people in camps could have all been executed, but they’ve been given a second chance.”

His girlfriend said she was angered that Uighurs were searched before they could enter buildings.

“It’s a real problem,” she said. “And when it happens we feel really uncomfortable. Like we’re being accused.”

Then she, too, caught herself. Like a good student, she changed her tone to echo Xi’s party line.

“The fact that they are there says they must have been influenced by those extreme thoughts,” she said. “They are really very uneducated—and they need to learn.”

— With assistance by Adrian Leung, and Hannah Dormido



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 7:57:21 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217571
 
Turns out that Team China, doubtlessly by accident, was doing the correct thing by importing Iranian oil, says Bloomberg's implicit take on Washington's happenings

Perhaps I misunderstand, but here be the article

bloomberg.com

US May Allow More Iran Oil to Flow Even Without Deal, Says Vitol

Washington might turn ‘blind eye’ to help lower prices: Vitol Market opinions on direction of oil have ‘never been wider’

Paul Wallace
5 June 2022, 18:33 GMT+8



An offshore oil platform in the Persian Gulf's Salman Oil Field, near Lavan island, Iran.

Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg Sign up for our Middle East newsletter and follow us @middleeast for news on the region.

The US may allow more sanctioned Iranian oil onto global markets even without a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord, according to the biggest independent crude trader.

While a new agreement would limit Iran’s atomic activities and ease US sanctions on its energy exports, talks between Tehran and world powers have stalled since March. Oil traders are increasingly pessimistic that negotiators will strike a deal.

Still, US President Joe Biden could decide that the need to bring down record-high pump prices ahead of November’s midterm elections outweighs the benefit of strictly enforcing sanctions, including by seizing more Iranian oil tankers.

“Uncle Sam might just allow a little bit more of that oil to flow,” Mike Muller, head of Asia at Vitol Group, said Sunday on a podcast produced by Dubai-based Gulf Intelligence. “If the midterms are dominated by the need to get gas prices lower in America, turning a somewhat greater blind eye to the sanctioned barrels flowing out is probably something you might expect to see. US intervention in these flows has always been pretty sparse.”

Chances of Reviving Iran Nuclear Pact Shrinking, EU Says

The US confiscated oil from an Iranian-flagged vessel off Greece last month, which was followed days later by Tehran detaining two Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf. But Washington’s move is unlikely to signal the start of more tanker seizures by the US, according to Muller.

Iran has raised oil exports this year, most of them ending up in China. A new nuclear deal would lead to an additional 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day coming on to international markets, enough to weigh on prices, according to energy analysts. The Islamic Republic also has around 100 million barrels of oil in storage that could be sold down quickly.

Crude prices have soared more than 50% this year to almost $120 a barrel, mostly because of the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While many Republicans and some Democrats oppose any lifting of Iranian sanctions, Biden is under plenty of pressure to lower gasoline prices, which have shot up to an average of more than $4.80 per gallon in the US.

Never Been WiderThere’s little consensus about the direction of oil prices, according to Vitol, which traded 7.6 million barrels of crude and refined products a day in 2021. While supplies are tight, Washington’s release of strategic reserves is helping balance the market.

Saudis Nod to US With Oil-Output Hike, But Keep Russia Close

Thursday’s decision by OPEC+ -- a 23-nation group of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia -- to accelerate output increases is unlikely to have much impact, Muller said. That’s because many members will struggle to pump more and Moscow’s exports could drop due to sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

“The range of expert opinion out there has never been wider,” said Muller, who’s based in Singapore. “There are people who think the market’s going to $135-$140 a barrel. And there are people who think we’re going below $100 again.”

Two WorldsThere’s also a dichotomy emerging between richer and poorer countries, he said. Some in Asia such as Malaysia and Singapore are experiencing a demand rebound as coronavirus lockdowns ease. Others including Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which has defaulted on international bonds and is struggling to pay for fuel imports, are experiencing demand destruction.

“It’s a tale of two worlds,” Muller said. “The affluent world is going to have their holidays and burn jet fuel. But the impact elsewhere is a lot more profound. The divide between the prosperous and the countries that have a lower ability to pay for commodities is becoming extremely stark.”



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (188468)6/5/2022 8:00:44 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Secret_Agent_Man

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217571
 
I am definitely not picking on you MQ, but am marking articles I should read in more detail, and you are very good as a marker :0)

I look at the photo, and I ponder the future of spaceship Earth

bloomberg.com

Western ‘Unity’ Is Making the Ukraine War Worse

Achieving a kumbaya moment of synchronized purpose and identity appears to have become more vital to the US and Europe than averting a humanitarian catastrophe.

Pankaj Mishra
5 June 2022, 15:00 GMT+8



All for one?

Photographer: Henry Nicholls/Getty Images

More than 100 days of war in Ukraine have not only unleashed multiple political, economic and environmental crises; Vladimir Putin’s invasion has also revived dangerous delusions in the West.

A few months ago, acute divisions plagued the United States, the European Union and ties between them. Germany, Europe’s leading nation, had developed a mutually profitable relationship with Russia. Poland, a frontline state now aligned against Russia, was descending deeper into autocracy, inviting punitive measures from its EU partners. A mendacious Tory prime minister led the United Kingdom. The US, damaged by Trumpism, a mismanaged pandemic and a military debacle in Afghanistan, was debating the likelihood of civil war. French President Emmanuel Macron had declared NATO was experiencing “brain death.”


Bloomberg opinion
As soon as Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his assault, Western politicians and journalists raced to announce that such fissures had miraculously dissolved. Lauding “Western unity” and the rejuvenation of “the free world,” they seemed to spend as much time trying to refurbish the West’s self-image as coming up with an effective rejoinder to Putin’s invasion.

Of course, unfocused actions bred largely of self-regard were always doomed to fail. Take, for instance, sanctions, widely hailed as projecting Western resolve against Putinism. Ineffective against even toothless regimes such as Cuba, sanctions have predictably failed to deter the Russian leader while exposing billions across the world to steep inflation and hunger.

Additional punitive measures have been very selectively imposed, with more focus on maintaining unity than on the political, economic and social repercussions for a world that has barely recovered from two radically destructive years of the pandemic. It should not be surprising that most nations, including close Western allies such as India and Turkey, continue to do business with Russia, or that Putin has retaliated by blockading ports that supply the world with wheat and fertilizers.

Opinion. Data. More Data.Get the most important Bloomberg Opinion pieces in one email.

Sign up to this newsletter

Now convinced of their own rhetoric about the strength of the Western coalition, US politicians and commentators have clamored to change the regime in Moscow and fatally weaken Russia, with no reference to how such fantasies of supreme power worked out in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Meanwhile, three months into the war, these same figures seem no closer to defining realistic Western objectives in Ukraine.

In fact, the options before the US and Europe have always been blindingly clear.

They could throw their full support behind Ukraine’s resistance to Russia, make sanctions watertight and cut off all financial support for Putin’s war machine. Or they could bring forward the unavoidable obligation to talk to their enemies and offer incentives for both Ukraine and Russia to reach a negotiated solution.

The first option is scarcely ideal. Nations that depend on Russia for its energy and food needs won’t end their relationship with the country overnight — not even Germany will do so. Also, increasingly direct military confrontation with a nuclear-armed state is unwise.

Yet the second option is hardly being vigorously pursued right now. Thus, Ukraine receives from the West neither the weapons it seeks for a more fruitful war effort, nor sufficient motivation to pursue peace through diplomacy.

What we do get, in copious measure, is a psychodrama — of a tiny but powerful minority of politicians and journalists who have been trying to resolve the identity crisis of the West by rhetorically exaggerating its will and resources against Putin.

During his four years in power, US President Donald Trump wrecked the cold war idea of the West as free, democratic and rational. In Europe, hard-right movements and personalities that were openly admiring of Putin further blurred a Western self-image forged during the long confrontation with totalitarian Soviet communism.

A brazenly imperialist Russia has now appeared to cleanse and vivify that identity just as the Soviet Union once did. Declarations that “the West must hold its nerve,” even as death and destruction stalk Ukraine, fuel the suspicion that achieving some kumbaya moment of synchronized purpose and identity has become more vital to the West than averting a global humanitarian catastrophe.

Needless to say, old assumptions — of a singular West possessed of colossal power or prestige or nerve — cannot be sustained today by a profoundly fragile coalition of Western countries which are internally divided, with angry populations pursuing widely different socio-political destinies.

It is true that many members of the West’s political and media elites, mostly middle-aged, white and male, fundamentally experienced the world as its hegemons. Too many disorientating things have happened since they were young — among them, the rise of China, a country nursing its sense of humiliation by Western powers, and the re-emergence of a defeated rival Russia as an energy superpower.

Faced with such resentful and implacable challengers, they have naturally sought shelter in the easy certainties and slogans of their youth. But peace and stability in the world will depend on whether today’s fragmented West can find less treacherous ways of dealing with the rest.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Pankaj Mishra at pmishra24@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Nisid Hajari at nhajari@bloomberg.net