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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (70466)	6/9/2022 6:59:55 AM
From: FIFO_kid2	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Respond to of 78958

Paul that was always the challenge to oil and any commodity or cyclical investing is when to hop off the train and what makes it very difficult the stock price decline in the commodity company in most cases precedes the commodity price decline and some supposedly cyclical names never acted that way. I clearly remember NVR, the home builder while studying the value line books was a $4-6 dollar stock in the late 1980s- early 1990s and it peaked at $6000! (now approx. $4350) so go figure Being patient and hopping on is generally easy for oil when the price sells off 75% from peak to trough always has been a historically good time to get very aggressive in accumulation of smaller cap shares especially with strong balance sheets and this phenomenon happened 6 times since I started investing in 1980. Selling I have really no magic formula dribble out shares until I get a zero cost position and I usually continue to dribble out shares as they rise on positive news events is usually the best tact to take but admittedly the persistence of the macros around the whole energy complex are certainly different this time with a war ongoing and a coordinated Malthusian oligarchy controlling policy. As for the service sector in oil from experience that is probably the toughest sector to bank on a lasting positive cycle for them and I would only view them as a short term trading vehicles but I agree that is the part of the energy complex that has lagged until recently. The downstream (refiners) which has curtailed capacity is part of the oil sector with the most momentum since the war began as the margins have absolutely skyrocketed from that event. The clean tankers shipping niche with STNG as the leader also have benefited from massive rising rates while ironically the crude shippers have not received the big rise in rates.