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To: tech who wrote (2378)2/10/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: Bernie Bildman  Respond to of 3391
 
Hi tech,

My post was entered in the thought that some here would find it informative/entertaining. It was not meant at all to point fingers at anyone in particular. If it was taken that way, I am sorry...it's just that this kind of discussion has been bubbling over for months in this thread.

And I will follow this thread, appreciate the welcome mat!!



To: tech who wrote (2378)2/10/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: tech  Respond to of 3391
 
Y2K Code Repair Expert Warns Congress: FAA Won't Make it by 2000 ______(news)


Link: house.gov



Stan Graham of Tech-Beamers, a code-repair organization, testified to
Congress that the FAA will not be fully compliant by Jan. 1, 2000. His
presentation was on Feb. 4, 1998.

One comment was especially notable for all y2k repair projects: "Finding
the cause and fixing the last 10% of the problems can take 20-30% of
the time."

This suggests that a lot of repair jobs -- possibly all of them -- will
experience slowdowns that project managers have not taken into
account. Yet in the case of the U.S. government, deadlines for testing are
sometimes as late as November, 1999.

* * * * * * * *

Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I hope to be of help to your subcommittees
on the FAA Year 2000 challenge. Based on information supplied by the
GAO and your staff, I concluded that many of the FAA's 414 critical
applications will not be "Year 2000 ready" by the end of 1999. I agree
with the GAO that the problem at the FAA is indeed a project
management one, however with technical complications. Furthermore, it
appears that the FAA does not have an objective methodology for
planning and tracking their Year 2000 project schedules. . . .


Most projects start off slowly, the FAA applications are no exception. In
order to become Year 2000 ready, the FAA must significantly accelerate
their progress during the next few months. However even when they do,
experience shows that this higher rate will not be sustained.
Finding the
cause and fixing the last 10% of the problems can take 20-30% of the
time. . . .

. . . Even if the FAA stops slipping their schedule, they would miss their
deadline by more than 7 months. If they continue to slip at the same rate,
they would finish almost 9 « years late. The FAA schedules are "open,"
and therefore not reliable. As a result, I believe that there is little chance
that the FAA's critical applications will be Year 2000 ready.


According to the GAO report, the number of application systems is
large; more than 875 systems, 18,000 subsystems, and 65 million lines
of code. Furthermore, through November 15, 1997 the Department of
Transportation reported that the FAA's large complex systems were only
3% through program renovation. Although this number should rise with
later data, we will not have a reliable number until all 65 million lines of
code and their data have been analyzed or accounted for.

Furthermore, testing is projected to take more than 50-70% of a
project's schedule. A strong testing discipline is required. . . .

Integral to executing each of the FAA's applications are extensive
information processing and communication technologies. These systems
depend on 80 inter-related computers just for the en-route system to
safely guide and direct aircraft. What makes the FAA problem
particularly serious is that the FAA is running computers that are about
20 years old.

What makes the situation even more difficult is that special instructions
have been added to the FAA computers. The Agency also has it's own
proprietary computer operating system software that is used no where
else in the world. . . .

In general, project planning and tracking methodologies most
organizations use are antiquated. From the data I have seen, the FAA
project is no different. These methods are undisciplined, rely largely on
intuition and hunch, and are constrained by edict. Industry experts report
that 80% or more of computer projects fail to meet their dates with the
function committed.
This is unacceptable for the Year 2000. . . .