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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (4796)	2/10/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

The "interesting" part of the AMAT release: ''New orders for the first fiscal quarter of 1998 fell short of our initial expectations,'' said James C. Morgan, chairman and chief executive officer. ''The continued weakness in DRAM prices, driven by excess capacity, combined with recent financing difficulties in Asia, are causing many of our DRAM customers to reevaluate their capital spending plans. In the first quarter, for example, a key Korean customer delayed a major investment in a new DRAM site in the United Kingdom. Although we remain confident about the long-term prospects for Korea and Japan, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the near-term economic health of these regions and the related effect on the demand for semiconductor capital equipment. As a result, we have become more cautious at this time and expect lower new orders and less favorable operating results than we originally anticipated as we entered fiscal 1998,'' continued Morgan. ---- As expected they beat expectations and the orders have slowed because of excess DRAM capacity and AMAT's dependence on large customers there. We had discussed this yesterday. You can't ignore DRAM manufacturers in the semi-equip sector! You just can't... Unlike 1996 and even 1997 the big DRAM guys (and most are in that neck of the world) are hurting and cash-strapped. Note also that Japan has been mentioned. As the WJ c.call indicated things look not so good in that part of the world and are getting worse. Next indicator - the BTB for Jan. Things will get worse before they get any better...

To: shane forbes who wrote (4796)	2/12/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

News from Asia is bad today. Indonesia is ugly: opinions are that it doesn't have sufficient currency reserves to implement its currency board successfully, and Suharno has the army out to quell popular unrest. In Korea, the national trade unions are threatening a nationwide strike Friday if the govt doesn't back down from the layoff bill. All the stock markets are down except Taiwan, up 1%. Only very serious loss was Indonesia, almost - 10%. (Korea and Indonesia seem to have opposite problems, don't they? Indonesia suffering from a Batista-style corrupt dictatorship, and Korea from not enough central control by govt -- trade unions with too much power, a la 70's Britain.) On the positive side, K&Q upgraded AMAT to buy, and Steinberg upgraded LRCX, AMAT, NVLS and KLAC. ATMI had an excellent earnings report.