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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (4448)	6/18/2022 1:06:50 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10585

Relative to bonds, the stocks are already very cheap. The market always anticipates the Fed easing and prices accordingly. If we were in a normal situation, I would already start accumulating (in fact I have been building positions on a few things such as XBI). The main problem I see is not the interest rates but the QT. I haven't modeled how that will affect the market. So far, it has been impossible for the stock to rally while M2 shrinks. But it may be different this time because the market has anticipated much of that and there is a ton of cash on the side lines. The real question is when is that cash going to decide that the market is cheap enough to account for QT. I have the numbers, I just haven't done the math. The other factor is the USD. I've never had to model for that. Even though I aim to be proactive rather than reactive, this time I may have to just wait until the market tells me to jump in.