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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (70534)	6/23/2022 9:27:01 AM
From: bruwin	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lance Bredvold Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78763

"Some said they are in a recession now .... " I have to wonder who "they" are who intimated that China was in a Recession now. A "Recession" is usually defined as being in place when a country has two Quarterlies in a row of Negative GDP growth rate. If we look at China's ongoing recorded GDP, it has slowed down after its dramatic GDP growth numbers back in 2020, but it now seems to be on a more even keel..... There does seem to be a regular downward dip in its Q4 GDP number, but it then moves back up for the next 3 Quarters.

To: E_K_S who wrote (70534)	6/23/2022 10:53:08 AM
From: Spekulatius	3 Recommendations Recommended By E_K_S Lance Bredvold petal Respond to of 78763

re China - it's not just that the Chinese economy is slowing down - the bigger issue is that their huge construction industry is slowing down. The Chinese construction industry uses a lot of steel, concrete and heavy equipment which is supplied by Komatsu, CAT and others. There is also a lot of energy used for all the above. I believe the Chinese economy will need less energy , steel concrete and heavy machinery as it transition from capital goods to a more consumer led economy.

To: E_K_S who wrote (70534)	6/23/2022 12:08:09 PM
From: bruwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78763

"Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is still expensive but one company I would like to own." CAT's fundamentals look quite good. According to Buffett's "Buy" criteria, i.e. the "Equity Bond", CAT is still a "Buy" at $183. This is likely to remain so because a component of that criteria is the AAA Corporate Bond Rate. Not that long ago it was in the region of 2% to 2.5%. It now sits at 4.4% and will undoubtedly increase going forward seeing as the "formula" is (Pretax Income)/(No. of Shares)/(AAA Rate) ........ Looking at CAT's price performance it could very well currently be at a "Support" of around $180/share ....