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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3186)	2/10/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: Honest Abe	Respond to of 78567

We are in the process of making model's directly related to the information in Buffettology. I have read most of the books on Buffett, yet from an investing standpoint, Buffettology is by far the best one. I highly recommend it. Also, just because some other posters were saying the market was too high 5 months ago doesn't mean it was me. I have been 100% invested in stocks for 6 years now, with very low turnover. I have owned Intel and Texas Instruments since 1995, and have never thought about cashing out, even with their high-volatility runups and pullbacks. I am in the futures industry as a job, so don't think that I become scared of the volatility in the stock market! I don't agree with the standard method of treating volatility as risk - you can often predict an expected level of volatility. Risk is whether or not you lose money.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3186)	2/10/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78567

Paul, that was an outstanding post, with some excellent points. I tend to have a concentrated portfolio, which I am coming to conclude is a mistake. I pass by too many great ideas, looking for the super outstanding ones, which are rare. An example. Solectron was a great idea under $30 recently, but I passed it by because it was not great enough. But even worse, you tend to fall in love with a concentrated portfolio and be slow to react to fundamental changes that make one of your holdings less wonderful. Being slow to kick out or reduce a bad situation can have a materially negative impact on results, when compared with a less concentrated portfolio.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3186)	2/10/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78567

Wasn't it about 5 months ago that we had this same discussion? Didn't I recall a few of you saying the same thing - market too high, going to cash? Now the market is higher and what do I see? At least one person is back to fully invested- I figured he couldn't stay out -g-. That would be me ;-). The way I see it, the market is moving to new highs as if Asia never happened. For 15 years now, when the market has moved to new highs, it meant good things. Ultimately that will change, and this is as good a time as any. BUT many many stocks have been killed out of proportion. In the last months I deployed most of my cash position in these beaten-down stocks: PHSYA (down 50%) MSA (down 20%) BMC (down 50%) TBR (down 40%) YUM (down 30%) SJP (down 20%) There are others out there. The net of it is I don't know who the heck is paying for MSFT and Gilette and the like at these prices, but if I keep my head out of that nosebleed netherland, I see stocks to buy that weren't there 5 mos ago. As the nosebleeders get stupid-happy for lack of O2 to their brains, so be it. Their stupidity can't make me ignore the gold between their toes. BTW, new posters to the thread should see Paul's initial posts to me - "I kinda see you twisting in the wind" and "You're a medical doctor, ipso facto a lousy investor." Paul's quite an asset to the thread. If we were all drinking buddies, the thread would simply suck. So steel yourselves up and throw out those contrarian views. I certainly entertain different styles of value investing for my portfolios and I'd hope the thread does too. Good Investing, Mike