Looks as though I was wrong when I thought that Russia was likely going into an Iraq-type trap by invading Ukraine to stop the carnage and conquest in eastern Ukraine following the Kiev coup. I expect it was intended to be a trap. But the Pentagon planners with their stupid war game theories got it wrong. Russians walked into the trap then smashed it apart.
More important than fine Westpoint theories were:
1 ... Cheese theory = proximity of cheese to nest determines victor and possessor of the cheese. USA is very far away. Nearly all Americans had no idea where Ukraine was, let alone Donetsk, or Sea of Azov. Russians were actually living there and right next door, and suffering the political abuses of the Kievan Kleptocrats, and actual deaths once the onslaught into the east got going after the Obama/Biden/Nuland coup and murdering in Kiev, Odessa etc.
2.... Motivation. Yes, Americans like to chant USA USA USA and blow towelheads to smithereens and pink mist while they shriek like delighted victorious chimps. Yes, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin et al want mega$uck profits from sales to everyone and anyone. Yes, DementiaJoe10% wanted his 10% kickback, sonofabitch and the firing of the annoying prosecutor, with Hunter arranging kickbacks and "working" on the Burisma board of directors and generally acting as cash and carry dealer on behalf of the "Big Guy". Hunter needed lots of loot aka opm to fund cocaine, concubines, computers, Cayman concealed retirement fund. Yes, the Pentagon needs wars and enjoys planning and carrying them out, like a fireman needs fires [so the odd fireman does end up convicted of arson]. Without wars, budget deciders might think it worth diverting more opm from Pentagon to pronouns, POC, pleasure, perks, climate change, greenhouse effect, global warming, electric car subsidies. Got to keep the cash flowing so wars are needed.
Russians on the other hand, were motivated by 200 years of 1812 Overture, Charge of the Light Brigade, the Kaiser in WWI, Barbarossa in WWII, with sundry skirmishes in the east with China and USA in Korea, Afghanistan in the south, Chechnya, Ottoman niggling in the south. Russia's survival was at stake. Americans might know that Omaha beach and mopping up the Germans did cost them some lives, but not that Russia lost 10s of millions and Germans were mass murdering galore, right there in downtown Russia. Napoleon got in the front door too. Russians have huge motivation and historically so. Here come the Germans yet again! Iskanders at the ready in Kaliiningrad. German Nazi bastards will not retake Kaliningrad. Russians have not forgotten Germans!
Americans don't really want to fight to the death for Hunter's hideous pleasures and nihilistic narcissism.
3... Technology. Americans are pre-eminent, more or less, in fancy military equipment. But Russia is not all that bad at it. Technology to fight in their own backyard and front yard and living room doesn't need to be as super clever as what the USA needs to deliver attacks to the other side of the world onto those Russian places. Sure, the USA has eyes in the sky, day and night, with hundreds of satellites. No doubt Cyberspace NSA information galore, even though much is in Russian = autotranslate probably solves that. But knowing Russian plans doesn't mean the Russians lose. Even if the Russians just told the Pentagon directly "We are going to move tomorrow a megaton of artillery towards Murmansk", what could/would the Pentagon planners do about it.
Russia seems to have enough equipment to handle terrestrial conflict inside their borders and very close to their borders. China might sell them megatons of munitions too and maybe some fancy stuff at that. Hypersonic whatnots and radar and GPS jamming other.
4.... Resources and industrial base. Russia has got a lot and Euroserfs need to buy methane and oil and coal and what have you, fertilizer, wheat, caviar, vodka. So Russia seems unlikely to run out of ammunition any time soon. They certainly won't be running out of fuel. Or iron. Etc. 150 million people working in war production is a quorum. Russia is vast with lots of mining and production capacity.
5..... Money. Eurostan is buying gas by the $10billion. China and India and others are happy to buy what Eurostan and USAUSAUSA won't. The Ruble is a powerhouse after a brief panicked dip. Hydrocarbon prices are near records.
6..... Time. It's on their side.
7.... Ethics. I'm on Russia's side though that does not mean I admire Putin's polonium210 poisoning, novichok, thallium, lead, etc. Most people seem to think Boris, Ursula, Scholz, Stoltenberg, DementiaJoe10%, Justin, etc are on the right side but they look to me to be horrible unethical self-indulgent evil-doers making Putin look saintly. Scoffing at him in condescension at their G7, laughing like hideous hyenas, while young men and others die a dozen at a time in horrible conditions, is disgusting. They should be doing nothing but taking it extremely seriously and finding an agreement - even Kissinger agrees with me = stop the fighting now, accept the reality of what the terrible decisions have led to and let the survivors get back to life and try to recover what they can in the newly reconfigured southern Europe.
Mqurice |
