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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: petal who wrote (70596)	7/5/2022 7:14:29 PM
From: scbeachbum	Respond to of 78753

AEO and BGFV have massive levels of short interest too. That's just added gasoline for the upside whenever they do start to move. I think inflation news is rapidly getting better. The overheated housing market has not been paralyzed and gasoline was down 40 cents today. Should make the markets feel better going forward that inflation is under control and we'll get more positive news/comments from the fed and trailing data points too

To: petal who wrote (70596)	7/5/2022 8:43:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

RE: AEO & BGFV These are new positions I have started earlier this year and continue to add. The only other retail I own is M. The fundamentals look good but maybe Mr Market is discounting for bad times (ie Recession). I like AEO best but would like to buy/add shares at lower prices. It was interesting that on the big sell off today, both of these opened green. That's a good sign. I am still not convinced of the retail recovery (look at BBBY but that may/could be a company specific problem). Would like to build these two to a 1% portfolio position. Only 25% there.

To: petal who wrote (70596)	7/5/2022 9:37:59 PM
From: Paul Senior	3 Recommendations Recommended By KC16 petal Spekulatius Respond to of 78753

As somebody pointed out earlier, in looking at sectors, retail/consumer non-durable, has historically not been the place to be in recessions. The stocks look cheap to me, I'm in and planning to hold, but I'm cautious too. I've enough that I've no interest in adding more (so no AEO). In addition to BGFV, KSS, M, I'm with a few more that I've mentioned: SKX. Have held a few Skecher's for many years. Recently added as stock has fallen. Same with NIKE. DKX (I'm reconsidering though if I want to hold Dick's.) FL. Foot Locker CRI. Carter's. Grandparents will continue to buy clothes for the grandkids, I am betting. JWN. I don't know anybody who is a big shopper at Nordstrom. In past it was The place to shop for women's shoes. High end/expensive stuff of course. Nordstrom Rack otoh is always busy every time I go, morning or afternoon. Back otoh though, the Rack isn't that large a part of Nordstrom's business. QRTEA (Home Shopping). This one's turned out very badly for me. I hold and hope there is still a business there that Malone or designate can develop. May use my losses here at year-end to offset gains elsewhere. CROX. Croc's has good metrics, but lots of debt. Are their "shoes" just a fad though? I'm considering if I want to take my losses and move on. BIRD. Allbirds. Another shoe company with popular products. Not a value stock, so just a few tracking shares for me. My idea is, ok, business isn't good now and might get worse. These companies sell items that people will want (if they get the right styles), and the stocks should come back. I would just like to see these companies get a "fair share" of the business that would be available.

To: petal who wrote (70596)	7/6/2022 7:50:47 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 78753

What I haven't read or heard much about, are public pension funds. My state reported 1st quarter results of -4.59 percent pension fund asset balance decrease, pretty much tracking the s and p. If that's the case, the second Q report is going to be brutal. We have a large state pension underfunded problem here, that is rapidly getting much worse. I'm still sitting on 15 percent cash.

To: petal who wrote (70596)	7/7/2022 4:48:53 AM
From: Ccube	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Everything is pointing to a recession. Even the recent commodity price drop (demand destruction) Stock market seems to think fed will pivot soon to easing ( because of the recession ) …..I don’t think they will pivot till unemployment start to go up. Or inflation drops below 5%. But it’s not a bad time to look ahead 12 to 18 months out…..inflation should be moderating, unemployment will rise….earnings will decrease….it’s slower earnings vs fed pivot to easing again. As history has shown fed easing will win out in the stock market so stupid market will go ballistic up again. Don’t fight the fed.