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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (494675)	7/15/2022 8:26:53 PM
From: cosmicforce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 543071

Many factors - e.g. pumping the gas pedal with free cash while people were working less efficiently due to COVID helped. I would call this "natural inflation". These are compounding factors - if there are 10 steps in each supply chain and there is only a 1% loss of efficiency, that is 0.99^10 is about 0.904 - a lost of over 9% which would have to be offset. This alone would account for some of the inflation along with the "remarkable" profits that oil producers found by simply raising the costs for domestic oil without any antecedent costs driving it. Of course we have to pay the WORLD price for stuff produced here. Oil increases always cause rapid price increases at the pump that are monetized by the producers in anticipation of higher real costs but aren't realized by the supply chain. These are followed invariably by slow price declines ostensibly caused by high price oil remaining in the supply chain. We are seeing that glacial pace now despite oil dropping 20% off its high. CFOs aren't stupid - they know they can jack the prices up when there is scarcity (or perceived scarcity) and do so. This will backfire if they don't downsize the supply chain as people will stop overbuying. There is deflation in some key indicators - like the lumber/gold ratio. This seems to be projecting deflation. I closed my PALL position because it spiked so quick. It is down 12% off my price and dropping.

To: Sam who wrote (494675)

7/16/2022 10:26:11 AM

From: koan

Respond to of 543071

Yes, and specifically Covid.

And this new strain may cause even more havoc. I read it rose 30% in a fortnight, and it is better at evading people with antibodies than any previous strain and very contagious.

I had to look up how long that was-lol. Two weeks.

But at my poker club I am still the only one who wears a mask.

But I am also the oldest guy there-lol. People don't seem to take precautions and so die younger than they need to.

And digressing, but beyond that is how many people I see in there every day who are really obese.

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Almost every country right now has inflation, many of them worse than in the US. IMHO, the multiple causes of this inflation are the war in Ukraine raising energy, transportation and food prices, the lockdown in China disrupting many supply chains, a lot of pent up demand as well as greater than usual savings from not buying as much as usual during the pandemic and companies raising prices because they have cover to do so and people having those extra savings.