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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Bowen who wrote (1093)	2/10/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hi Steven: Another way to do a back of the envelope computation is as follows. If you read the FCC documentation regarding auction procedures, you will see that bidders will be expected to pay the difference between 20% of their winning bids and their upfront payments just after the auction closes. It appears reasonable therefore that the upfront payments represent less than 20% of the total auction value. So a worst case analysis would be that the auction will bring in 2 billions (note that I am not even giving a cash value to the discounts awarded to small businesses). Assuming that NY is worth about 10% of this total gives $200M (I believe that the total population in serviceable areas is less than 100 millions). By the way, I think that the San Francisco license is likely to gather more interest than the LA license, because of the high density of professionals who need Internet access at home. I do not agree with earlier comments on this thread indicating that LMDS is only of interest for businesses. For all professionals, ISDN lines have become the norm, and LMDS, ADSL, or cable modems will deliver a much higher rate at a comparable price. I hope that the NY license will be valued based on the SF license (based on the high density of investment professionals in NY, this would make sense). Regards, Bernard Levy

To: Steven Bowen who wrote (1093)	2/11/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

OK, I screwed up this analysis a little bit (don't tell my wife): The number I've been using for the total up front payment for all the markets of $186,148,090 is the Block A auction only. The numbers would be OK if you want to assume that the Block A auction will bring in $4B, but would be a little lower if you want to include the Block B. The Block B upfront front payments are 10% of the Block A payments. The total payment for Block B is $19,434,564. New York screws these numbers up a little. The total population of the New York market is 18,050,615. CVUS' license covers 8,546,846. Therefore the Block A license that will be auctioned for NYC will cover 9,503,769. The Block B license will cover the entire 18M pops.