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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88673)	7/19/2022 7:41:54 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 95572

You are absolutely correct about this, but with a little nuance. Inflation is unlikely to peak until the end of this year and possibly April of next year. If the Fed insists on its stated plan to keep raising rates until they see a few months of inflation drop (and not just slow down in the rate of growth) then we are likely to see a global meltdown in April. If on the other hand the Fed signals in September that they are almost done, then we're likely to be fine. At the moment, the bond market is predicting a rate cut in January. Question is will the expected 3 1/2 point rise in interest rates this year slow inflation enough to get the Fed's foot off the market. If not how much higher do rates need to go? Once we can see an end to rising rates and the possibility of the Fed helping the market things will improve.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88673)	7/19/2022 11:00:50 AM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Sr K Respond to of 95572

We are not in in a semiconductor downturn. Well, we are in some type of semi slowdown. Just look at MU's report and guidance. How it affects other semi companies is going to be interesting, we'll see in a few days. Perhaps MU was mainly driven by the April-June China Covid lockdown, in which case semis will resume their recent growth trajectory quickly. But there seems to be lots of negative vibe in the press lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more guidance cuts over the next 3-6 months. Q2 reporting will give more info as to what exactly is going on.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88673)	7/19/2022 11:09:55 AM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

We are not in in a semiconductor downturn. Global handset shipments to drop to 1.2-1.3 billion units in 2022 digitimes.com Something odd is going on. Then there is this..... Qualcomm, Marvell, Intel to raise chip prices digitimes.com If they can raise prices, demand must be robust....... Fortunately for me my semi stocks (QCOM, MCHP, ADI, TXN, MRVL) they are buy and hold forever positions, so I don't care so much about the cyclical swings, I just try to watch for long term trends that may make their chips obsolete or make them lose share such that we wouldn't want to hold them forever. I'd be interested if you guys have any other semi stocks that seems like just good plays on the semi industry, and are good picks to buy and hold forever. Intel recently has lost dominance/leadership to AMD, is spending to get back in the tech lead, maybe they succeed, maybe they don't, since we don't know how that effort by them will go, I don't like the risk in Intel. MU any year or set of years could be destroyed by Samsung and SK, or at least the memory industry could be made unprofitable as those Korean guys try to gain share. So I own a bit OF MU, but not much. ADI and TXN seem to me like they'll be around forever plonking out their analog chips, so I'll just hold them, collect the dividends, and hope they grow with the semi industry. Any other ideas like that I'd love to hear your thoughts. My SIMO position is likely going to be sold into cash when their deal goes through, so I'm going to have lots of cash to redeploy. Looking forward to being more diversified!