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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (2213)	2/10/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 5676

<< The SI bull bear ratio is quite bearish >> Looking at the chart of the bull/bear ratio and the accompanying tech stock index, it appears to be an unreliable indicator- -at least at any value less than about 9 or 10. It did predict the decline beginning in April '97 correctly. However dropped from about 4 to about 2 seven times since April '97; only 2 of these coincided (or were followed by) declines of any significance. On the bullish side, it appears to be more reliable. All the run-ups from the low one-somethings to the high 3-somethings or over four preceded and were partially coincident with large increases in the stock index. However, if you waited for it to reach, say, 3.5 to avoid a false signal, you missed almost all of the run. I'd say this might be useful as a confirming indicator, but not as a predictor.